[USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXstreet.com

cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. [EUR] U.S. Attack and Euro's Hope to Rising  2020 0106
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

Dollar Index or USDX, dollar's price against the basket of major six currencies lowers its peaks and is expected to drop in next week. USDX finished the week with 97.37 and is forecasted retreat to 96.5x, previous bottom.

Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday was worse than expected and previous record, and dollar index fell 0.06 percent to 97.37. It rose 0.5 percent in the week.

Non-Farm Employment Change in December was expected 162 thousands increasing which was 256 thousands in November. But it increased 145 thousands in last month.

Thought non-farm payrolls decreased, unemployment rate has kept 3.5 percent historical low in fifty years. It support the U.S. economy is still good.

The recent military tension between the United States and Iran boosted the price of safe-haven assets and oil. But US President Donald Trump and his counterpart remain cool, so military tension is entering a calming phase, and surged price retreat.

U.S. did airstrike to kill Iranian No. 2, Qassem Soleimani. And Iran has vowed retaliation.

Risk appetite is gradually recovering, and euro rose against greenback.

A Forex strategist said, Dollar-long position was still available but investors needed to watch whether it fades away.

The sign of first-step trade deal between top two economy entities is hold on next Wednesday, market participants expect.  It is reportedly, the first-step deal will support strong dollar.



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[EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack 2020 0109

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] U.S. Attack and Euro's Hope to Rising  2020 0106
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

Euro builds double-tops pattern in the four-hour chart against dollar. The pattern implies the price-down and currency pair eur/usd is 1.1114 and futures, Euro FX, 2020-03 is 1.11605 as of 02:46(UTC).

Euro is expected to rebound at 1.107x in spot and 1.113x in the futures market, CME, because euro is supported at the price bands before and it is around mid-term upward trend line.

And the easing U.S.-Iranian military tension supports euro, too.

Though Iran's retaliation missile attack on the U.S.-Iraqi bases, Donald Trump, the U.S. President spoke U.S. would not retaliate again. After his speak, stock market rose.

U.S. did airstrike to kill Iranian No. 2, Qassem Soleimani. And Iran has vowed retaliation.

Gjallarhorn recommend to buy euro against greenback and to wait the rebound.


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[EUR] U.S. Attack and Euro's Hope to Rising 2020 0106

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

One of the major currency euro is on the downward trend line and trying to break through it. It may rise after the correction.

Major currency pair, EUR/USD dropped but succeeded to rebound on the downward trend line, last Friday. It is 1.11664 as of 01:00(UTC) and futures 6EH20 is 1.12145 as of 01:00(UTC). Its price rises in Asian session but it is thought to meet the correction and all of spot and futures item could retreat to bottom band of Bollinger Bands and seems to rebound at 1.1118(eur/usd) and 1.1185(futures), support line in the daily chart.

Euro of currency pair and futures is expected to rise in the year. Euro built the triangle pattern and it rose above the right edge of triangle in the weekly chart. It shows that euro accumulates the momentum and will jump or plunge soon.

If it has rising momentum, it can rise to 120 exponential moving average at first.

But U.S. airstrike to kill Qasssem Soleimani, the Iranian general has made oil price and gold price to surge. And stocks in New York plunged. Dollar rose, too.

Iran has vowed revenge on the United States.

It seems that the rising military tension between the United States and Iran threatens the market and boost the price of gold and crude oil. Dollar Index, dollar's price against the basket of six major currencies could rise, too.

But external fact of military tension may affect on the market restrictively. Because the market is slowly recovering from the shock.

And the dealers in bullish bias on euro can keep their long bias and watch the entry spot when it rebound.

Gjallarhorn searches the entry point, now.



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