[EUR] Rising Euro After the Correction 2020 0608

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing the Correction 2020 0604
cf. [EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601

Euro fell on Friday due to the better record than expected Non-farm Payrolls and unemployment rate.

But this retreat is meaningful in technical analysis.

Currency pair EUR/USD broke through 20 Moving Average two weeks ago and touched the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. And it is worth of exceeding 120 Exponential Moving Average in the weekly chart. It is natural euro fell on Friday after it exceed 120 EMA and upper band of Bollinger Bands simultaneously. Because the break after the meaningful goal is needed.

Currency pair touched 120 EMA in the weekly chart in three months. It doesn't say euro will keep the continuous climb.

Falling euro succeeded to rebound on the support line and there is still room for rising to more 1.20. But 120 EMA isn't broken at once empirically. There will be several tries for exceeding it.

The currency pair may fall but it is reasonable to keep the long bias of EUR/USD.

Meanwhile Non-farm Payrolls in May recorded the 2.5 millions increase on last Friday. Market forecasted 7.75 millions decline but the better record supported greenback.

FOMC decide the benchmark interest rate at 18:00(GMT), Wednesday. It is anticipated the rate will be frozen. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the gloomy outlook of economy in May but he denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate, Federal Funds Rate.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.
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[EUR] Preparing the Correction 2020 0604

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601
cf. [EUR] Unstable Rebounding of Euro 2020 0523
cf. [EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0522
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

Euro retreats against dollar on early Thursday. Though it fell today, nobody may be concerned about risk-off. One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD has risen for seven days recently. Euro rose from late May and seven-days rising is the longest rising since December, 2013.

Dollar Index, showing dollar's value for the basket of major six currencies fell 0.46 percent to 97.250, recording low since mid-March.

Safe-haven dollar falls due to the expectation of the additional recovery packages, resumption of economy activity and easing blockage around the world, though Sino-America tension and the ongoing protest in the United States.

The economy recovery program of 75 billion euro fund by EU commission's plan. If EU commission funds the recovery package, euro is supplied more and gets currency power more as a global key currency.

The currency pair moves steady in Asian session, it seems to search its direction, up or down.

After the investors accept the correction, they should think how euro falls. We can guess the previous sidling-term may be a support line, first. We need to watch whether price band, 1.1117 ~1.1136 support the retreating euro.

If euro falls below the first support line, it could retreat to 1.10. Euro has tried to break through 1.10 for months. The price 1.10 was a strong resistance line and it will be a support line now.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.
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[JPY] Risk-on, Falling Yen 2020 0603

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430

The pair of safe-haven currencies, USD/JPY rose after the long steady sidling in the horizontal channel on Tuesday. It sidled since March. The price of the currency pair reached the upper band of Bollinger Bands and rose along the band.

It retreats as Asian session has begun. But it recorded the long positive candle and it is expected the price to rise. Rising price means strong dollar and weak yen.

The currency pair has reached 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart and it gives the clue of supporting of price-rising, greenback upward.

We need to be informed that the pair has moved in the directionless channel though the pair rises to upper Bollinger Bands. The both of currencies, dollar and yen are the safe-haven asset, and currencies value move together, Gjallarhorn thinks. And we need to watch the chart carefully searching the signals in the chart.

Meanwhile, Dollar Index, showing dollar's value for the basket of major six currencies fell 0.11 percent to 97.70, recording low since mid-March.

The optimism for the global economy recovery made the investors buy risky assets though Sino-American tension. And Japanese Yen retreated.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed his negative economy growth and denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate last month.

The expectation of the global-economy recovery, the recovery package  of Euro Zone and the vaccine against Coronavirus has supported the risky assets such as euro.

There are regular big events in the week. G7 meeting is held today, and ADP Non-farm Payrolls is released, too. European Central Bank releases Main Refinancing Rate on Thursday. Non-farm Payrolls is issued on Friday.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.

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