[EUR] Putin’s Attack on Ukraine 2022 0224

cf. [EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

Vladimir Putin has declared the special military operation in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.

 

The news medias reported the Russia would attack on Donbas but Putin denied the occupation.

 

Putin approved the operation while UN Security Council meeting, and he commanded the arrangement of so-called the peacekeeping forces by Russia troops on Donbas on Tuesday.

 

As the report of Putin’s command is released in the early morning Thursday (GMT), the Dollar Index began to surge. The Dollar Index rose 0.12 percent to 96.206 on Wednesday.

 

The euro sank to a three-week low to the safe-haven dollar on Thursday while riskier commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar weakened amid intensifying fears that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent.

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[EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 cf. [EUR] Bearish Bias on EUR 2022 0213

cf. [EUR] Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in Bollinger Bands and retreated as the geopolitical risk rose at the end of the last week.

 

The pair began to drop along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. And it left a long head candle. They imply the more retreat in the week. It may fall to 1.1283, the price level before the ECB president’s press conference.

 

The euro fluctuated between the upper band and the bottom band about a week then it fell along the bottom band against the dollar in the one-hour chart as the week ended.

 

The euro failed to exceed the 20 moving average in the weekly chart after surge three weeks ago. It stepped down against the dollar for the continuous two weeks. It seems the euro may fall to the long-term trend line, 1.1230s. And it can retreat to 1.1177, the price in June 2020.

 

The geopolitical risk in Ukraine called the risk-off sentiment. And the over-night risk made the greenback rise last week, the one of the safe-haven Japanese yen fell though.

 

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the six peers rose to 96.099 or 0.04 percent last week.

 

Tony Blinken, the Secretary of State said, he would talk with his counterpart Sergey Lavrov in the week if Russia didn’t invade Ukraine.

 

Though Russia claimed its withdrawal after the drill, the United States and Europe countries assume that the Russian troops are increased. They estimate there are some 150thousand troops around the Ukraine .

 

Charles Evans, the president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago spoke the Fed should hike the interest rate but might restrain the additional tightening policy if the inflation risk was eased. He added the present monetary policy was incorrect and needed to be revised at the annual monetary policy forum.

 

John Williams, the president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York said he supported the interest rate hike in March. He said, the Fed had adjusted the monetary-policy stance, and finished the tapering the first and the rate hike next.

 

The market participants are convinced the Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March. The members of FOMC show their hawkish stance explicitly.

 

The FOMC member and the St. Louis Federal Reserve president, James Bullard has emphasized he preferred 10 bp rate hike till July. He also spoke the Fed should respond to the inflation recorded high in 40 years.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

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If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

 

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[EUR] Bearish Bias on EUR 2022 0213

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202

cf. [EUR] Falling EURO 2022 0126

cf. [EUR] Hawkish Fed and the Bullish Dollar 2022 0119

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD which has fluctuated in two long-term trend lines retreated around the 20 moving average in the weekly chart last week. The pair reached the 20 MA two weeks ago, and gave the clue of rebound of the euro.

 

The euro rose to the 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart, it failed to exceed the line and the downward trend line though. It sank to the 20 moving average again in the daily chart.

 

The currency pair slid along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. It makes the investors to think the price continue to retreat in the short-and-midterm.

 

Gjallarhorn thinks the price can fall to 1.1283s, the price before the ECB’s press conference in the month and to the mixed price band.

 

It is also able to sink 1.1131 recording low in the quarter.

 

The investors can think the upward trend line supported the falling price of euro but it is tested as the support line again. It doesn’t seem the trend line to support the euro this time.

 

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the currency basket of the six peers rose 0.41 percent to 96.059. It edged higher 0.41 percent last week.

 

The euro plunged on last Friday as the ECB president Christine Lagarde supported the ECB’s dovish stance.

 

The ECB president Christine Lagarde warned if the ECB rushed to tighten the monetary policy, it could choke the economy recovery.

 

She added all action should be done step by step.

 

The market still expects that the ECB will hike the rate 10 bp till June and 50 bp till this year.

 

The market participants are convinced the Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March. The members of FOMC show their hawkish stance explicitly.

 

The FOMC member and the St. Louis Federal Reserve president, James Bullard emphasized he preferred 10 bp rate hike till July. He also spoke the Fed should respond to the inflation recorded high in 40 years.

 

The geopolitical risk in Ukraine recalled the risk-averse sentiment. The conflict risk between the United States and Russia in Ukraine boosted the dollar as well as the prices of commodities.

 

The U.S. authorities warned their citizens to leave Ukraine in 48 hours and they spoke Russia would invade Ukraine on Wednesday, Feb. 16.

 

Though Russia President Putin’s denial, the tension of the conflict rises.

 

The summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin by phone was held on February 12, they didn’t get the meaningful result though.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

 

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If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

 

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Thank you.

 

 

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http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

 

#Gjallarhorn, #FOREX, #FXMargin, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD