[EUR] Safe-haven Dollar 2022 0301

 

 

cf. [EUR] Putin’s Attack on Ukraine 2022 0224

cf. [EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

It’s not really important to analyze the market technically because the markets only move by the geopolitical risk, the Russia’s invasion to Ukraine. The war in Ukraine renders the technical analysis obsolete.

 

The safe-haven dollar and yen rise and risk-on currencies retreat.

 

The Dollar Index rose to 96.765 on Monday.

 

The Russia’s invasion to Ukraine threw the finance markets into disorder. The invasion has made the volatile markets. The safe-haven asset and the crude oil price surged.

 

The risk-averse sentiment dominates the Forex market as Moscow warned the nuclear weapon.

 

Instead of the military response, the United States and the western countries use the economic sanction such as the expulsion of Russian banks from the SWIFT code. They agreed to expel Russia from SWIFT. The SWIFT is the international network which more 11 thousands banks and finance organizations use.

 

The Russian Rouble plummeted 30 percent. And Russian Central Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent to stabilize the rouble.

 

The U.S. bond yield dropped showing the risk-off sentiment. The yield of 10-year Treasury Bond fell 10 bp to 1.868 percent for a while, Monday.

 

The one of the safe-haven asset, Japanese Yen rose.

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Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

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[EUR] Putin’s Attack on Ukraine 2022 0224

cf. [EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

Vladimir Putin has declared the special military operation in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.

 

The news medias reported the Russia would attack on Donbas but Putin denied the occupation.

 

Putin approved the operation while UN Security Council meeting, and he commanded the arrangement of so-called the peacekeeping forces by Russia troops on Donbas on Tuesday.

 

As the report of Putin’s command is released in the early morning Thursday (GMT), the Dollar Index began to surge. The Dollar Index rose 0.12 percent to 96.206 on Wednesday.

 

The euro sank to a three-week low to the safe-haven dollar on Thursday while riskier commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar weakened amid intensifying fears that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

 

 

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

 

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

 

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[EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 cf. [EUR] Bearish Bias on EUR 2022 0213

cf. [EUR] Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in Bollinger Bands and retreated as the geopolitical risk rose at the end of the last week.

 

The pair began to drop along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. And it left a long head candle. They imply the more retreat in the week. It may fall to 1.1283, the price level before the ECB president’s press conference.

 

The euro fluctuated between the upper band and the bottom band about a week then it fell along the bottom band against the dollar in the one-hour chart as the week ended.

 

The euro failed to exceed the 20 moving average in the weekly chart after surge three weeks ago. It stepped down against the dollar for the continuous two weeks. It seems the euro may fall to the long-term trend line, 1.1230s. And it can retreat to 1.1177, the price in June 2020.

 

The geopolitical risk in Ukraine called the risk-off sentiment. And the over-night risk made the greenback rise last week, the one of the safe-haven Japanese yen fell though.

 

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the six peers rose to 96.099 or 0.04 percent last week.

 

Tony Blinken, the Secretary of State said, he would talk with his counterpart Sergey Lavrov in the week if Russia didn’t invade Ukraine.

 

Though Russia claimed its withdrawal after the drill, the United States and Europe countries assume that the Russian troops are increased. They estimate there are some 150thousand troops around the Ukraine .

 

Charles Evans, the president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago spoke the Fed should hike the interest rate but might restrain the additional tightening policy if the inflation risk was eased. He added the present monetary policy was incorrect and needed to be revised at the annual monetary policy forum.

 

John Williams, the president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York said he supported the interest rate hike in March. He said, the Fed had adjusted the monetary-policy stance, and finished the tapering the first and the rate hike next.

 

The market participants are convinced the Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March. The members of FOMC show their hawkish stance explicitly.

 

The FOMC member and the St. Louis Federal Reserve president, James Bullard has emphasized he preferred 10 bp rate hike till July. He also spoke the Fed should respond to the inflation recorded high in 40 years.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

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You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

 

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