[EUR] Recession risk and bullish dollar 2019 1003

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Downward Trend Line still Valid 2019 0926


ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday made market participants to worry about U.S. manufacturing industry. It recorded 47.8 which was 49.1 previous month and was forecasted 50.1 better than previous value. It is recorded low in ten years.

Employment sector released on Wednesday did, too. It was 135 thousands, five thousands less than market consensus  and it was 157 thousands in previous.

The disappointed market sold greenback and bought euro and currency pair EUR/USD rose in two days. EUR/USD broke through 1.09 and 1.0950 in order. It is 1.09494 as of 06:45(UTC).

And Euro FX-201912 or 6EZ19 is recording 1.10050 after 1.10207 as of 06:45(UTC).

Market experts think U.S-China trade conflict begin to affect to U.S. manufacturing.

But as global economy go worse, U.S. dollar rises. Because the possible global economy recession risk makes market participants to buy greenback and other safe-haven asset.Though U.S. economy worries the recession risk, greenback gets traders' long positions. Euro zone economy is worse than U.S. economy.  It seems to be still valid that we have bullish bias on greenback.

One of the powerful Forex events is released on Friday. Non-farm payroll is expected to be 140 thousands and 130 thousands in previous month. We need to note the difference between actual value and expected value. If the real payroll is smaller than expected one, greenback plunges and euro surges.

And we need to just watch the market without deal till non-farm payroll is released on Friday.

Though euro price against dollar rose, it is under the downward trend line yet. After it fell to the bottom in two years, It rises gradually this week, but it should be tested at the downward trend lines since one-year ago and late June in this year.

The price of pair crossed 120 exponential moving average in one-hour chart but under the line in four-hour chart yet. In four-hour chart, if it exceeds 120 exponential moving average line, it has more possibility of correction or turning-down again.













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