Thursday, 31 December 2020
Tuesday, 22 December 2020
[EUR] Preparing EURO's Correction 2020 1223
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] EUR Preparing Leap 2020 1216
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro above 1.21 2020 1209
cf. [EUR] EUR, Preparing to Exceed 1.20 2020 1129
The currency pair EUR/USD has risen trying to make the new trend.
The pair succeeded to break through the main bearish trend line and exceeded 1.20 in the year.
The euro which has risen without the explicit pattern fluctuate in enlarging amplitude. It supports that euro won't show the dramatic rising again for a while and it may be in the correction.
Gjallarhorn recommend the watching the market carefully not to deal the currency pair now. And it is end of the year, many traders take the rest preparing the next year.
It is still valid to keep the long bias to euro, buying euro, though euro hovers in the sidling channel. But it doesn't mean the purchase euro now.
The key currency, U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday, it is thought that the concern of COVID-19 re-proliferation and the detection of coronavirus variant in the UK called the risk-averse sentiment.
The dollar index rose 0.1% to 90.561, extending its gain for the week to 0.7%. That still leaves it on track for a more than 6% decline this year.
The infection cases have surged in the United States. It is reported, the accumulated cases may reach over 20 millions in the year. The infection cases exceeded 18 millions and the death toll is near 320 thousands in the U.S. according to the research by Johns Hopkins University.
But the vaccine injection cases help the easing of the investors' anxiety. The President-elect Joe Biden and NIAID Header Anthony Fauci were injected the coronavirus vaccine respectively. Fauci said the vaccine might be effective to the variant virus, too.
U.S. Congress passed an $892 billion COVID-19 aid package overnight, it didn't affect to the market though. Because the market participants already expected.
------------------------------------------
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Tuesday, 15 December 2020
[EUR] EUR Preparing Leap 2020 1216
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro above 1.21 2020 1209
cf. [EUR] EUR, Preparing to Exceed 1.20 2020 1129
Gjallarhorn has liquidated the long positions of euro-futures in CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and doesn't have any position just watching the market.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD began this week fluctuating between 1.212x and 217x.
The pair just moves up and down without the explicit trend after it broke through the main bearish trend line which was formed since 2008.
Euro failed to gain the momentum of rising more after the surging in the last month, though Dollar Index which tracking the greenback against six major currencies basket fell 0.30 percent to 90.429 on Tuesday. The dollar Index fell to lowest level in two and a half year.
The market participants expected the additional fiscal stimulus, the optimism of the talk between England and EU after the Brexit and the vaccine injection soon, and it took euro to rise in the channel. The positive news against the pandemic supports the risk-on assets.
Senator McConnell hinted the deal might be agreed in the year.
It made the greenback's retreat and euro's rising, it added.
DowJones reported on Monday, the analysts in JP Morgan thought the investors believed the euro would rise.
And the analysts thought euro might lose its popularity due to the ECB's policy. Yonhap Infomax reported citing DowJones.
The European Central Bank, ECB spoke the hyper-easing monetary policy would be extended at least to March, 2022.
And it revised to buy the bonds 50 billion euro more via PPP, purchasing program against the pandemic. A strategist told that ECB might restrain the rising of euro and euro would fall to 1.20s.
But Commerzbank think the pair is supported by the U.S. inflation expectation which is higher than that in euro zone. The euro rises due to the inflation difference between the United States and euro zone while Fed and ECB hold the zero interest rate respectively, Yonhap Infomax reported citing DowJones.
Meanwhile the U.S. FOMC meeting is held on December 17. The market participants expect the more market-friendly policy of FOMC but lower their expectation of the US fiscal stimulus in the year.
It is still valid to keep the long bias to euro, buying euro, though euro hovers in the sidling channel. And it is recommended that buying euro as it is in the correction.
------------------------------------------
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Thursday, 10 December 2020
Tuesday, 8 December 2020
[EUR] Fluctuating Euro above 1.21 2020 1209
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] 1.20을 눈앞에 둔 유로화 2020 1130
cf. [EUR] EUR, Preparing to Exceed 1.20 2020 1129
Gjallarhorn liquidated the long positions of euro-futures in CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and doesn't have any position in the year.
The currency pair EUR/USD has broken through 1.20 and exceeded 1.21 sequently.
The major downward trend line which has been formed for more ten years, has been broken thorough, and euro moves above the bearish trend line. It means the new trend will be made.
The currency pair fluctuates after its rally exceeding 1.21. It may retreat and doesn't seem to rally again over 1.2160 in the short term.
It is forecasted that euro moves in the channel between 1.2070 and 1.2166.
The long bias to euro is still valid. It seems to be supported at 1.2050 at first and the second support may be 1.1970.
And it is recommended to buy euro while its correction. Fibonacci 38.2 and 120 Exponential Moving Average are around 1.1970. It looks not fall below it.
ECB, the European Central Bank holds the meeting on Thursday. Forex experts thought ECB would extend the QE program, DowJones reported on Tuesday.
And one strategist told that ECB might restrain the rising of euro and euro would fall to 1.20s.
The U.S. FOMC meeting is held on December 17. The market participants expect the more market-friendly policy of FOMC but lower their expectation of the US fiscal stimulus in the year.
The COVID-19 vaccine by the international pharmaceuticals Pfizer and BioNTech began to be used in England this week for the first time. The vaccine will be used in the United States soon.
The positive news against the pandemic supports the risk-on assets.
------------------------------------------
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Wednesday, 2 December 2020
Monday, 30 November 2020
[JPY] Risk-On Setiment 2020 1201
 |
| USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [JPY] Stable Yen 2020 0910
There is a downward trend line in the daily chart of currency pair USD/JPY since late February. It supports the short bias of US dollar against yen.
And the pair succeeded in rebounding on Monday. Before facing the resistance line by the daily chart, it seems to rise in the short term. There is about one big margin. It means the weak yen and risk-on sentiment.
The greenback was down on early Tuesday due to the risk-on sentiment in Asian session. And risk-off asset yen retreats, too. It fell against major currencies including the US dollar.
The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against major currency basket succeeded in rebounding though the risk-on.
The market's expectation of more monetary easing measures from the Federal Reserve lowers the safety asset such as dollar and yen. Yen is more safe than dollar and the yen retreats more than the greenback.
The hopeful COVID-19 vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna for distribution stimulate the markets, though rising virus cases.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on Monday that difficult months lie ahead. "We're bracing ourselves here," he said, adding that the central bank is open-minded about shifting or even expanding its bond buying program.
The President-elect Joe Biden appointed Janet Yellen, the former Fed Chair as the Threasury Secretary.
And U.S. FOMC meeting is held on December 17. The market participants expect the more market-friendly policy of FOMC but lower their expectation of the US fiscal stimulus in the year.
Meanwhile Gjallarhorn liquidated the long positions of euro-futures in CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
---------------------------
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Sunday, 29 November 2020
[EUR] EUR, Preparing to Exceed 1.20 2020 1129
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] 반등하는 유로 2020 1125
cf. [EUR] EUR, trapped between the Resistance and the Support 2020 1124
cf. [EUR] Enlarging Volatility 2020 1119
cf. [EUR] Bullish Euro? 2020 1117
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
The currency pair EUR/USD finished the week with gain while US holidays, Thanksgiving Day.
The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD which ended the week with 1.1958 gives the market participants the strong signal of poising to break through 1.20. And it ready to face the major bearish trend line which has been built since 2008.
The major downward trend line passes around 1.20 in this week. The exceeding 1.20 of euro means the new trend will be formed.
The 20 Moving Average in hours charts, daily and weekly charts direct upward showing the rising momentum.
But we need to watch the external news as well as the technical analysis.
When euro tries to exceed the meaningful price level, it retreated. The re-proliferation of COVID-19 disturbed the rising of euro. The third wave of rising infection cases makes the investors' risk-averse sentiment, euro down and dollar up.
And the news of vaccine development by the pharmaceuticals turns on the risk-on sentiment.
The passive re-proliferation of COVID-19 and the optimistic vaccine development make the euro fluctuate.
Meanwhile Charles Evans, governor of Chicago Fed. expected the near-zero interest rate of Fed. might be held till 2024. It hints the weak greenback for a long time.
The Forex strategist of the French bank, Societe Generale has forecasted the euro would be bullish if the yield spread between eurozone and counterparts becomes narrow and prospected 1.1920 might be the last resistance line to proceed to 1.20, before.
------------------------------------------
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Tuesday, 24 November 2020
Monday, 23 November 2020
[EUR] EUR, trapped between the Resistance and the Support 2020 1124
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Enlarging Volatility 2020 1119
cf. [EUR] Bullish Euro? 2020 1117
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro 2020 1112
cf. [EUR] After the Election 2020 1108
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Rising euro plunged suddenly in the last afternoon(GMT).
The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD rose above 1.1900 in the noon(GMT), but it fell sharply below 1.1800. It took just 3.75 hours.
After plunging it rebounded being supported on 1.1800. The pair seems to keep the bullish momentum, and it is recommended to hold the long position of euro.
Euro faces the strong resistance at 1.189x. Whenever it has touched around 1.189s, it retreated due to the several materials such as the re-proliferation of the virus and the US Presidential Election.
This time, the positive news of vaccine development by the pharmaceutical AstraZeneca took the currency pair upward toward 1.19. But the greenback surged while the release of the US Flash Manufacturing PMI for November. The index showed an unexpected increase to the highest level in years.
And the fear of re-proliferation of COVID-19 in the United States took euro down, too.
FXStreet analyses 1.1920 as a key level to determine the near-trend direction of the euro and sets 1.1910~20 price zone, as a strong resistance against EUR/USD.
And Charles Evans, governor of Chicago Fed. expected the near-zero interest rate of Fed. might be held till 2024.
Meanwhile Janet Yellen, former Federal Reserve was selected as Treasury Secretary in the Joe Biden's government. It was positive to the market.
German IFO institute releases ifo Business Climate at 09:00(GMT), Tuesday. Its previous index was 92.7 and the market expects it may be 90.3, this time.
The forex strategist of the French bank, Societe Generale has forecasted the euro would be bullish if the yield spread between eurozone and counterparts becomes narrow and prospected 1.1920 might be the last resistance line to proceed to 1.20, before.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Friday, 20 November 2020
Thursday, 19 November 2020
[EUR] Enlarging Volatility 2020 1119
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Bullish Euro? 2020 1117
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro 2020 1112
cf. [EUR] After the Election 2020 1108
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
The rising currency pair EUR/USD retreated and is under the correction. It failed to break through the bearish trend line in the four-hour chart, it's hard to break through the trend line at one sitting, though.
And it is positive that the bottoms rise.
Gjallarhorn thinks it is still valid to hold the bullish bias to euro.
As it has done, euro's moving has been determined by COVID-19.
The news of COVID-19 vaccine boosted the risk-on sentiment of buying euro, pound and selling dollar and yen. And the surging infection cases and the re-proliferation make investors turn to buy risk-averse US dollar and gold.
Though the US pharmaceuticals announced their development of vaccine, the re-proliferation cooled down the risk-on sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 recorded their worst day in three weeks on Wednesday, and these indices are set for their third straight day of losses as this vaccine optimism dissipates.
And the US initial Jobless Claims increased 742 thousands, which was expected 707 thousands.
The US economy still doesn't recover from the recession.
Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported, analysts of ANZ said that the mixed materials raise the market volatility on Thursday.
Meanwhile, The forex strategist of the French bank, Societe Generale forecasted the euro would be bullish if the yield spread between eurozone and counterparts becomes narrow. And he prospected 1.1920 might be the last resistance line to proceed to 1.20, too.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Monday, 16 November 2020
[EUR] Bullish Euro? 2020 1117
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro 2020 1112
cf. [EUR] After the Election 2020 1108
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to rebound on 20 Moving Average in the daily chart. It is expected to rise to 1.1925, the upper band of Bollinger Bands first, though it fluctuates in the bands.
The Forex market is driven by the re-proliferation of COVID-19 after the US Presidential Election on November 3. It implies that the technical analysis isn't effective so much.
The positive news from pharmaceuticals boosts the markets, stock markets as well as forex markets.
US pharmaceuticals, Moderna Inc reported a 94.5% efficacy rate for its candidate vaccine its phase III study yesterday.
The news follows Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's announcement during the previous week that their jointly developed the COVID-19 vaccine which prevented more than 90% of symptomatic infections. The US pharmaceuticals, Pfizer and German BioNTech announced that the vaccine against COVID-19 and the stock markets were excited.
The news of the COVID-19 vaccine called the risk-on sentiment of the market participants. As the news of COVID-19 vaccine was released, the stock market in Ney York surged. The euro also rose after the correction in the early market.
And the analysts of Action Economics said, the dollar would fluctuate in the narrow channel now but it would fall when the economy recovers with the inflation for months.
The forex strategist of the French bank, Societe Generale forecasted the euro would be bullish if the yield spread between eurozone and counterparts becomes narrow. And he prospected 1.1920 might be the last resistance line to proceed to 1.20, too.
Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Thursday, 12 November 2020
Wednesday, 11 November 2020
[EUR] Fluctuating Euro 2020 1112
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] After the Election 2020 1108
cf. [EUR] Testing Rising Euro 2020 1026
cf. [EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Though euro is in the correction, Gjallarhorn analyses the long bias to euro is still valid. Euro has the margin of rising to 1.20 at least, Gjallarhorn thinks.
The currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to break through the downward trend line last Friday, it sank under the trend line as this week began though. It formed the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in four-hour chart, but it was supported on 1.1744.
Euro fluctuates without explicit trend in the daily chat and weekly chart, and it shows bullish in the monthly chart.
The investors may expect euro reaches the bearish trend line in the four-hour chart and break through.
And we need to recognize that the currency pair EUR/USD moves by the external factors, such as the US election and re-proliferation of COVID-19. It implies that the technical analysis isn't effective so much.
The US pharmaceuticals, Pfizer and German BioNTech announced that the vaccine against COVID-19 and the stock markets were excited. But the investors adjusted their expectation, the risk-on asset's values have been in the correction.
The pandemic still disturbs eurozone economy.
Though Biden's victory in the Presidential Election, the political situation in the United States isn't clear. It burdens Forex market.
And the euro slipped 0.3% against dollar overnight after the European Central Bank said it would focus on bond buying and cheap loans to boost pandemic-wrecked economies.
Therefore the investors still hesitate to buy more risk-on asset.
Meanwhile Goldman Sachs has predicted the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 and Joe Biden's winning.
Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
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Saturday, 7 November 2020
[EUR] After the Election 2020 1108
 |
| EUR/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Testing Rising Euro 2020 1026
cf. [EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Democrat Joe Biden declared his victory against President and Republican Donald Trump over the Presidential Election on Saturday.
Biden got 279 Electoral College votes at least as he won in Pennsylvania, and he is expected to get more Electoral Colleges in Arizona and other states.
The Presidential Election was one of the uncertainty factors in Forex market. It was very difficult to predict the next US President and it raised the greenback and risk-averse asset.
And we can watch the chart itself.
The price of the currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in a certain channel in the daily chart since last summer below the major downward trend line.
When it plunged, it was supported on around 1.2628 and succeeded to rebound. It is expected that the price may break through the channel and the trend line in order.
We need to watch whether euro would exceed 1.20 against dollar again.
The possible fiscal stimulus may drop the greenback.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Thursday, 5 November 2020
Wednesday, 28 October 2020
Sunday, 25 October 2020
[EUR] Testing Rising Euro 2020 1026
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR II 2020 1014
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.
The currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to rise in the last week. The Head-and-Shoulders pattern was formed in the one-hour chart, it rebounded at 1.1786 though.
It is positive to euro that the downward trend line in the four-hour chart risese gradually. And 20 Moving Average in the charts direct upward, too.
We can expect the strong euro and be recommended to buy it.
Gjallarhorn anticipates it could exceed 1.1860 at first, because it meets the bearish trend line in the four-hour chart around 1.1860 according to FXDD.com data.
The technical analysis, however, isn't effective than the fundamental analysis nowadays.
The Forex market is directed by the news of the US Presidential election and COVID-19.
The COVID-19 re-proliferation and the fear of twindemic of COVID-19 and influenza make the investors' risk-off sentiment. The negative news makes investors buy the safety-haven asset such as US dollar and gold.
The investors hesitate to buy more risk-on asset due to the uncertain result of the election.
Wall Street expect Joe Biden's victory in the Presidential election on November 3 and say ''Biden Trade'' selling dollar. And they expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus after winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicted the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
The most of the polls about the election support Biden, the Democrat and preidict the Trump's loss. But it isn't certain yet. The approval rate to Donald Trump rises espcially in the swing states rapidly.
Donald Trump won Hillary Clinton and become the president though he got less votes than Clinton's four years ago. And the market participants are prudent to buy the risk-on and someone waits doing after the election.
The Wall Street expected the fiscal stimulus before the election, but it doesn't look possible.
Therefore, the rising of euro may be restrictive. And we need to watch the news more than analyse the charts.
And the long bias to euro is still valid. Gjallarhorn still recommends to buy euro rather than to buy dollar in mid-and-long term.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
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Sunday, 18 October 2020
[EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR II 2020 1014
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.
The technical analysis isn't effective than the fundamental analysis nowadays.
The Forex market is directed by the news of COVID-19 and the US Presidential election on November 3.
The hopeful news of the coronavirus raises the risky currencies such as euro and euro drops by the news of virus re-proliferation and the fear of twindemic.
The election campaign in the United States affects the Forex market, too.
''Biden Trade'' which implies the bearish greenback, stepped back. The grim news of COVID-19 vaccine and the fail of fiscal stimulus before the Presidential Election on November 3 strengthened the greenback last week.
We need to watch the news more than analyse the charts.
The second pandemic of COVID-19 is realized. As the infection cases soars, Europe raises the blockage measures against the virus.
And the risk-off sentiment eased somewhat at the end of the last week, as US economy indicator was better than the expectation, the greenback rose against major currencies last week though.
Euro was bearish due to the increasing coronavirus cases in the EU, leading to restrictive measures in the Union.
Though the drop of euro, the long bias to euro is still valid. Gjallarhorn still recommends to buy euro rather than to buy dollar in mid-and-long term.
Wall Street bet on Biden in the election in the next month. They expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus after winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicted the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
Meanwhile Fed chair, Jerome Powell and ECB president Christine Lagarde speak respectively on Monday.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Friday, 16 October 2020
Tuesday, 13 October 2020
[EUR] Short USD and Long EUR II 2020 1014
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
cf. [EUR] Rebounding EUR 2020 1006
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 1002
cf. [EUR] Euro on the Corssroad 2020 0926
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Gjallarhorn recognizes that the previous report has been incorrect. It has the long position of euro, and it gives the long bias about euro. If the strong greenback is recommended, it may get cognitive dissonance.
The currency pair EUR/USD plunged suddenly in the Tuesday afternoon(GMT). The US dollar was the lowest level in three weeks against the major currencies.
''Biden Trade'' which implies the bearish greenback, stepped back. The grim news of COVID-19 vaccine and the fail of fiscal stimulus before the Presidential Election on November 3 strengthened the greenback.
The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejected the proposal of the stimulus by President Donald Trump on Tuesday.
These news lowered equities' prices in the market as well as euro.
The offered stance in EUR/USD is also reinforced by disappointing results from the latest ZEW survey in Germany and the broader Eurozone. These results add to the idea that the recovery post-coronavirus crisis could be stalling or that optimism among market participants is debilitating.
The pair EUR/USD is 1.1744 as of 04:30(GMT) and fluctuates in Bollinger Band in the four-hour chart.
Though the drop of euro, the long bias to euro is still valid. Gjallarhorn still recommends to buy euro rather than to buy dollar.
Wall Street bet on Biden in the election in the next month. They expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus after winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicts the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
The news agency, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, Forex market bet Biden, too. It reported Chinese Yuan strengthens against greenback because of the forecast of Biden's victory and the recovery of Chinese economy.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Monday, 12 October 2020
[EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding EUR 2020 1006
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 1002
cf. [EUR] Euro on the Corssroad 2020 0926
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
One of the major currency EUR/USD rose at the end of last week. But the currency pair stepped back as the week began.
Retreating euro is still on the upward trend line in the four-hour chart and it gives investors the hint of still-bullish bias. Though it breaks through the trend line, it would be supported the support line in the daily chart and 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart.
The long bias to euro is still valid.
The dollar moved to three-week lows in early Tuesday as investors expected that there will be large U.S. fiscal stimulus after the Presidential Election on November 3. And the dollar index stood at 93.036, just above Friday's near-three-week low of 92.997.
There are positive news and negative news in the market simultaneously. The expectation of US. fiscal stimulus calls the risk-on but the fear of the re-proliferation of COVID-19 makes the investors buy the safe-haven asset such as gold and greenback.
So, euro fluctuates in the range just attempting to rise.
The long position of euro in the futures market recorded low in two-month according to CFTC data. It is regarded that euro is over-bought.
Meanwhile, Wall Street bet on Biden in the election in the next month. They expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus afer winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicts the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Tuesday, 6 October 2020
Monday, 5 October 2020
[EUR] Rebounding EUR 2020 1006
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 1002
cf. [EUR] Euro on the Corssroad 2020 0926
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD broke through the downward trend line in the four-hour chart and hovers below 1.18.
The currency pair was in the correction for a week due to the fear of the re-proliferation of COVID-19 and succeeded to rebound last week. The price exceeded 20 Moving Average at first in the daily chart and it gives the positive signals to euro. Though it fluctuates in Bollinger Bands in the daily chart, it can reach to 1.1895.
It is not uncertain whether it breaks through 1.20, yet. But Gjallarhorn expects there may be a attempt to do it.
And the two-weeks-ago correction was supported on 1.16, it gives a cue of bullish euro in short-and-mid term.
Dollar Index which shows dollar's value against the six major currencies fell 0.25 percent to 93.461.
Ahead of Wall Street’s close, the US President Trump said he would be leaving hospital later in the day, as he feels 20 years younger. He added he would leave the hospital at 06:30(EST, 22:30 GMT) on Twitter. And the number of new contagions among White House staff rose.
His leaving the hospital stimulated the risk-on. US President Donald Trump who was positive for COVID 19 in last week leaved the hospital and returned to the White House on late Monday(GMT).
The expectation of the agreement of the additional economy stimulus helped the market, too. The Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi failed to get the agreement but they continued the negotiation by the telephone, Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported.
Meanwhile, analysts at Eurizon SLJ are reported to anticipate EUR/USD falling to 1.13 by the year-end, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to boost easing in response to the low and declining inflation trend.
Eurozone core consumer price index declined to a record low of 0.2% in September. The second quarter's sharp fall in Eurozone labor compensation suggests the core inflation reading could fall further.
-------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Friday, 2 October 2020
[EUR] Coronavirus and Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 1002
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
Monday, 28 September 2020
Friday, 25 September 2020
[EUR] Euro on the Corssroad 2020 0926
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Unstable Euro in the Pandemic 2020 0922
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro Ahead of FOMC 2020 0915
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
The currency pair EUR/USD dived in this week.
The pair which had attempted to break through the important price, 1.20 plunged to 1.1611. It recovered technically and finished this week with 1.1629 according to the chart of FXDD.com.
The price of the euro fell without any meaningful recovering, and it showed the strong downward trend.
The price of 1.20 is meaningful and the resistance against breaking-through is strong. The downward trend line which has been effective more ten years is on some 1.20 these days. The exceeding 1.20 means that the price breaks through the main downward trend line, and the greenback enters bearish period.
The first try failed, Gjallarhorn confesses to recording the loss.
The four-hour chart suggests that the euro may rebound technically in the next early week. We can expect the euro may rise against dollar to 1.1725 at first. It is the upper band of Bollinger Bands.
If the euro's bearish trend continues, the price, 1.149x may be support line.
The surging greenback in this week owes to the fear of the re-proliferation of coronavirus in Europe. The rising infection cases in Europe has made the fear of the blockade again, and the risk-on sentiment was exchanged to the risk-off.
The fear of second blockade in Europe, the short-covering of the greenback and the uncertainty of U.S. politics before the Presidential election boosted safe-haven U.S. dollar. The dollar index, greenback's price against six-currencies basket surged to 94.604.
The second rising-infection cases in Europe called the safe-haven greenback selling euro.
JP Morgan expected the forth-quarter economy growth of the United States 2.5 percent, it was lowered from 3.5 percent. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America lowered it to 3 percent, too.
The political uncertainty burdens the market, too. The campaign of Donald Trump and Joe Biden till the Presidential Election on November 3 supports the bullish dollar.
The risen dollar lowered the price of crude oil and another safe-haven gold.
The price of crude oil WTI futures dropped to 40.25 dollar. Gold futures' price in New York market retreated 0.7 percent or 12.60 dollar to 1864.30 dollar.
The euro plunged, Eurozone economy recovers gradually though. Economy index, German Ifo Business Climate in September hit 93.4. Though it is lower than market expectation 93.9, it rose from 92.5 in August and it has risen for months.
Ifo expects German economy will record six percent in the third quarter on the previous quarter. German authority revised the German economy growth in the year from minus 6.4 percent to minus 5.8 percent.
Meanwhile Christine Lagarde, president of European Central Bank has spoken that ECB watches the strong euro carefully and ECB has worries about the euro's rising. Because the strong euro burdens the economy recovery in Eurozone. And it may restrain the rising height of euro.
-------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
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Tuesday, 22 September 2020
[EUR] Unstable Euro in the Pandemic 2020 0922
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro Ahead of FOMC 2020 0915
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
As the week begins, the currency pair EUR/USD has plunged. The pair which rose mildly in Asian session turned its direction downward.
But euro retreated against dollar, it still fluctuates in flat Bollinger Bands in four-hour chart and daily chart. It is not valid to get the short bias of euro, yet.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD has dropped to fresh 6-week lows around 1.1720 earlier on Tuesday. The falling currency pair retreated to 1.1719 in this morning(GMT).
It tries to rebound on the adjusted support line in the four-hour chart, and it takes time to confirm its trend, upward or downward. We need to watch whether the price rises to 1.1824 which is 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart. If it succeeds to exceed 20 MA, it gives hint of rising euro.
Due to concerns about the re-proliferation of the novel coronavirus infection, risk-off sentiment made investors to buy safe-haven asset such as dollar in the week. And the euro fell against dollar.
The speech of Christine Lagarde, president of European Central Bank which ECB watches the strong euro carefully, also affected the currency pair and weak euro.
ECB has worried about the recent euro's rising. Because the strong euro burdens the economy recovery in Eurozone. And it may restrain the rising height of euro.
EUR/USD dropped and recorded fresh monthly lows near 1.1720 earlier in the session, resuming the post-FOMC downtrend. Despite the move, the pair’s outlook remains positive and bouts of weakness are so far deemed as short-lived and look contained.
Investors are expected to closely follow the first testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the Fed’s response to the pandemic. The dollar will, therefore, be under the microscope practically during the whole week.”
Meanwhile the experts in Wall Street think it may take long time for the US economy to recover. Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months.
And Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida has spoken the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
--------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
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Thursday, 17 September 2020
Wednesday, 16 September 2020
Tuesday, 15 September 2020
Monday, 14 September 2020
[EUR] Rising Euro Ahead of FOMC 2020 0915
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] First Support Level Price of Euro 1.1760 2020 0909
cf. [EUR] After Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 0905
cf. [EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss yet.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates not showing the explicit trend in the four-hour chart since August. There were several attempt to break through 1.20, but it was failed and the price has hovered.
Also we can find out that the price has raised its bottoms, and it support the long bias to euro and the weak greenback.
Ahead of FOMC Economic Projections on Wednesday, the pair seems to keep the moving up-and-down in the Bollinger Bands. After FOMC's release and press conference, the currency pair will set its new trend whether exceeding 1.20.
Before FOMC's press release and the release of its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, the greenback stepped down. Market participants expect Fed will freeze the Federal Funds Rate below 0.25 percent and keep the dovish stance. It makes the greenback down.
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke Flexible Form of Average Inflation Targeting at Jackson Hole Symposium, it implies Fed will not raise the benchmark interest rate though the inflation hit over 2 percent. It is predicted that FOMC will provide additional forward guidance to show how the flexible form of average inflation targeting' works to support Powell's remarks.
But European Central Bank worries about the recent euro's rising. Because the strong euro burden the economy recovery in Eurozone. And it may restrain the rising height of euro.
Meanwhile the experts in Wall Street think it takes long time for the US economy to recover. Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
And Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida has spoken the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
---------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
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Thursday, 10 September 2020
[JPY] Stable Yen 2020 0910
 |
| USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0610
cf. [JPY] Risk-on, Falling Yen 2020 0603
cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430
Gjallarhorn has the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME but doesn't have any position of Japanese Yen.
The weekly chart of currency pair USD/JPY shows the pair is on the downward trend. As it goes, USD/JPY has lowers its peaks. It supposes traders to have the short bias to the pair.
But we also need to know, there is sufficient margin from the current price in the four-hour chart and the one-hour chart.
In the short term, the price fluctuate and the fluctuation width diminishes step by step. The price seems to converge to 106.10x in four-hour chart. The convergence implies collecting the momentum and it could surge or plunge.
Meanwhile European Central Bank froze its benchmark interest rate to zero, and ECB spoke it would keep PEPP of 1.3 trillion euros while the press conference on Thursday. Risk-on asset prices have risen.
---------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
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Tuesday, 8 September 2020
[EUR] First Support Level Price of Euro 1.1760 2020 0909
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] After Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 0905
cf. [EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
cf. [EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
Gjallarhorn still holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because euro has retreated for days.
One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD made the head-and-shoulders pattern which shows the downtrend conversion in the one-hour chart, and it continues the downward trend.
We need to watch whether the pair is supported at 1.1760x which was bottom in August at first. The price may retreat to 1.1710 if the price of 1.1760 as the support line is broken. If the 1.1710 is breached, the price is thought to be on the downward trend in mid-term. The long bias to euro will gain the support after the price falls to 1.14x then.
The greenback rose against euro ahead of ECB's monetary meeting on Thursday. The no-deal Brexit risk supported dollar, too. After US Labor Day, dollar rose due to equities in technology sector was in the sharp correction and risk-off trading.
Dollar gained since good Non-Farm Payrolls and lowered unemployment rate, market experts don't think the greenback's rise is the mainstream, though. And Gjallarhorn still has the outlook of weak dollar and strong euro, too.
Because the US economy growth is worried and the benchmark interest rate is anticipated low for a long time. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting which implies Fed will not raise the benchmark interest rate though the inflation hit over 2 percent.
Most market analysts predict that there will be no policy change. They are wary of the possibility of sending a message that seemed concerned about inflation or a strong euro.
A researcher in Captal Economics spoke the strong dollar is tempoary because the global economy will recover from the shock of the novel respiratory coronavirus infection.
There is an analysis that ECB may be more dovish and dollar will be gained.
The experts in Wall Street think it takes long time for the US economy to recover. Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months, depending on the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida spoke the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
Meanwhile German government adjusted German economy growth up to minus 5.8 percent, which was -6.3 percent when released in April.
---------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
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Saturday, 5 September 2020
[EUR] After Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 0905
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
cf. [EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because euro has retreated for days. Euro needs to exceed 1.20 in order for Gjallahorn's losses to turn into profit.
The currency pair, EUR/USD made the head-and-shoulders pattern which shows the downtrend conversion in the one-hour chart. And the price of the pair dropped to 1.1788. It tried to rebound but failed after touching the upper band of Bollinger Bands.
The price fell after the US Non-Farm Payrolls and formed the V pattern in the one-hour chart. It is not uncertain whether it succeeds to rebound and reach to 1.20, yet.
Though euro has been in the correction, it is supported the mild support line in the four-hour chart. And we can find the price of the currency pair has been supported by 20 Moving Average in the daily chart, and it gives the long bias of euro to the market participants.
Dollar rose due to the better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Dollar Index, dollar's value against the currency basket of major six currencies rose 0.04 percent to 92.781.
Non-Farm Payrolls' record made the market participants expect the recovery of the US economy and supported the greenback. But the correction of the stocks in the technology sector reduced dollar.
And the unemployment rate in August dropped to 8.4 percent, which was expected 9.8 percent. That in July was 10.2 percent.
Dollar gained due to good Non-Farm Payrolls and lowered unemployment rate, it doesn't change the bias of weak greenback though. Gjallarhorn still has the outlook of weak dollar and strong euro. And the market analysts guess dollar is on the downward trend, too.
Because the US economy growth is worried and the benchmark interest rate is anticipated low for a long time. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting which implies Fed will not raise the benchmark interest rate though the inflation hit over 2 percent.
The experts in Wall Street pointed out that the increase in the number of jobs is good news, but it takes long time for the US economy to recover.
Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months, depending on the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
Dow Jones reported on Friday that Bank of America (BoA) has upgraded the eurozone's economic outlook this year from -7.9% to -7.3%. However, the growth rate for next year was lowered from 4.3% to 3.8%.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida spoke the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
Meanwhile German government adjusted German economy growth up to minus 5.8 percent, which was -6.3 percent when released in April.
---------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
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You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
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Tuesday, 1 September 2020
[EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
cf. [EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because it was bought at the local peak. Euro needs to exceed 1.20 in order for Gjallahorn's losses to turn into profit.
The currency pair EUR/USD retreated after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. It recorded 56.0 better than market's expectation. It supported the recovering US economy and the investors bought the greenback.
The pair tries to form the head-and-shoulders pattern and the price could drop to 1.1820, 120 exponential moving average of four-hour chart. The price fluctuates in the channel in four-hour chart and daily chart, and it seems to accumulate the momentum up or down.
Gjallarhorn expects euro will rise over 1.20 and it saves the momentum of exceeding it.
The better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI supported the falling greenback on Tuesday. Before the release-it, euro recorded 1.20, the highest peak in 52 weeks. The speech of Jerome Powell, Fed Chair at Jackson Hole Symposium made dollar plunge. He confirmed 'the Average Inflation Targeting' which admit the 2 percent over of inflation and there will not be the hike of the benchmark interest rate in long term.
But good record in the US manufacturing sector turned greenback to upward.
Fed Chair, Powell denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate in May.
It was 56.0 and the market consensus was 50.0. It was high since November 2018.
Societe General has diagnosed that the euro's long position against the dollar was too much, and it has burdened.
Though US dollar rose on Tuesday, the downward trend of greenback is still valid, Gjallarhorn thinks.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida spoke the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
Meanwhile German government adjusted German economy growth up to minus 5.8 percent, which was -6.3 percent when released in April.
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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
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Saturday, 29 August 2020
Wednesday, 26 August 2020
Tuesday, 25 August 2020
[EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0811
cf. [EUR] Euro, Long Bias and Preparing the Correction 2020 0804
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0731
cf. [EUR] Still Rising Euro May Be Tested 2020 0724
Gjallarhorn got the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because it was bought at the local peak.
But Gjallarhorn still has long bias to euro and recommends you buying euro.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD has been fluctuating in Bollinger Bands since the end of July in the four-hour chart.
The currency pair is supported on the bottom band of Bollinger Bands and rebounded though the currency pair retreated to its 120 Exponential Moving Average.
There will be several attempts to exceed 1.20, EUR/USD pair fluctuating in Bollinger Bands while its trying. Fibonacci tells pair price 1.1629 is 38.2 percent fall from the peak, it doesn't seem to do though.
The market participants wait for FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday, and the chart shows the moderate flow.
The market anticipates the dovish stance and it is expected that euro will get the trend after Powell's speech. Fed Chair is expected to speak Fed will tolerate more inflation in US economy. But someone analyses that the price already has reflected the dovish Fed stance and dollar's fall will be restricted.
If Powell's dovish speech doesn't satisfy the market enough, greenback may rise, Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported citing market analysts talk.
The conservative investors is recommended to get the position after the speech.
The top two economy entities, the United States and China talked about the trade by telephone and it supported the risky-on. The representatives from G2 spoke the advance in the talks.
Major German economy index, Ifo Business Climate recorded 92.6 better than expected 92.5 on Tuesday. It gave the hope of German economy's recovery.
The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Confidence Index in the US slumped to 84.8 and fell short of analysts' estimate of 93. But it had little to no impact on the dollar because of the waiting-for the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Meanwhile, Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum. ING said the number of net dollar-position records minimum in eight years and it shows the negative outlook on the greenback.
But analysts at Danske Bank predicted euro's retreat to 1.12 in a half-year. They predicted the US productivity would surpass Eurozone's. And they added the excess liquidity in Europe will burden euro.
U.S. economy daily Wall Street Journal reported on last Thursday, European Central Bank officials supported the additional action to boost Euro economy. WSJ reported they said, ECB had the margin for the support yet.
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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
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Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD