 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR]
Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202
cf. [EUR]
Falling EURO 2022 0126
cf. [EUR]
Hawkish Fed and the Bullish Dollar 2022 0119
The
reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The
reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn
has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.
The
currency pair EUR/USD which has fluctuated in two long-term trend lines
retreated around the 20 moving average in the weekly chart last week. The pair
reached the 20 MA two weeks ago, and gave the clue of rebound of the euro.
The
euro rose to the 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart, it failed
to exceed the line and the downward trend line though. It sank to the 20 moving
average again in the daily chart.
The
currency pair slid along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour
chart. It makes the investors to think the price continue to retreat in the
short-and-midterm.
Gjallarhorn
thinks the price can fall to 1.1283s, the price before the ECB’s press
conference in the month and to the mixed price band.
It is
also able to sink 1.1131 recording low in the quarter.
The
investors can think the upward trend line supported the falling price of euro
but it is tested as the support line again. It doesn’t seem the trend line to
support the euro this time.
The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against
the currency basket of the six peers rose 0.41 percent to 96.059. It edged
higher 0.41 percent last week.
The euro plunged on last Friday as the ECB
president Christine Lagarde supported the ECB’s dovish stance.
The ECB president Christine Lagarde warned if the
ECB rushed to tighten the monetary policy, it could choke the economy recovery.
She added all action should be done step by
step.
The market still expects that the ECB will hike
the rate 10 bp till June and 50 bp till this year.
The market participants are convinced the
Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March. The members of FOMC show
their hawkish stance explicitly.
The FOMC member and the St. Louis Federal
Reserve president, James Bullard emphasized he preferred 10 bp rate hike till
July. He also spoke the Fed should respond to the inflation recorded high in 40
years.
The geopolitical risk in Ukraine recalled the
risk-averse sentiment. The conflict risk between the United States and Russia
in Ukraine boosted the dollar as well as the prices of commodities.
The U.S. authorities warned their citizens to
leave Ukraine in 48 hours and they spoke Russia would invade Ukraine on
Wednesday, Feb. 16.
Though Russia President Putin’s denial, the
tension of the conflict rises.
The summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin
by phone was held on February 12, they didn’t get the meaningful result though.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn
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Gjallarhorn
does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the
market.
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