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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Bearish Bias on EUR 2022 0213
cf. [EUR]
Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202
The
reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The
reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn
has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.
The
currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in Bollinger Bands and retreated as the
geopolitical risk rose at the end of the last week.
The
pair began to drop along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour
chart. And it left a long head candle. They imply the more retreat in the week.
It may fall to 1.1283, the price level before the ECB president’s press
conference.
The
euro fluctuated between the upper band and the bottom band about a week then it
fell along the bottom band against the dollar in the one-hour chart as the week
ended.
The
euro failed to exceed the 20 moving average in the weekly chart after surge
three weeks ago. It stepped down against the dollar for the continuous two
weeks. It seems the euro may fall to the long-term trend line, 1.1230s. And it
can retreat to 1.1177, the price in June 2020.
The geopolitical risk in Ukraine called the risk-off
sentiment. And the over-night risk made the greenback rise last week, the one of
the safe-haven Japanese yen fell though.
The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the six peers
rose to 96.099 or 0.04 percent last week.
Tony Blinken, the Secretary of State said, he would talk with
his counterpart Sergey Lavrov in the week if Russia didn’t invade Ukraine.
Though Russia claimed its withdrawal after the drill, the
United States and Europe countries assume that the Russian troops are increased. They
estimate there are some 150thousand troops around the Ukraine .
Charles
Evans, the president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago spoke the Fed should
hike the interest rate but might restrain the additional tightening policy if
the inflation risk was eased. He added the present monetary policy was
incorrect and needed to be revised at the annual monetary policy forum.
John Williams, the president of Federal Reserve Bank of New
York said he supported the interest rate hike in March. He said, the Fed had
adjusted the monetary-policy stance, and finished the tapering the first and
the rate hike next.
The market participants are convinced the
Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March. The members of FOMC show
their hawkish stance explicitly.
The FOMC member and the St. Louis
Federal Reserve president, James Bullard has emphasized he preferred 10 bp rate
hike till July. He also spoke the Fed should respond to the inflation recorded
high in 40 years.
------------------------------------------
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