[EUR] Bullish or Bearish Trend? 2022 0528

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] EURO Rally 2022 0525

cf. [EUR] The Technical Rebound of Euro 2022 0522

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has a short position recording the loss in CME.

The currency pair EUR/USD held its upward momentum in the daily chart and the weekly chart.

The pair is found it rose two weeks continuously in the weekly chart. It rebounded on 1.0359x, the support line since 2017. The price of the pair exceeded the 20 moving average at once and reached the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the daily chart. Its shape of following the upper band implies the more rising. 

But it didn't reach the 20 moving average, yet. It's not certain that the euro has the sufficient momentum enough to break through the 20 moving average.

And the euro began to control its power in hour-size charts.

The pair still moves in the channel made by the upper band and the middle band, the middle band has begun to ease the slope in the hours chart.

The bullish trend isn't confirmed yet.

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback dropped 0.15 percent to 101.654 in the week.

The Core PCE released on Friday was satisfied the markets' expectation. It was 4.9 percent, which the market expected, and the price of EUR/USD moved in the Bollinger Bands in the one-hour chart.

The hawkish Fed in the markets' expectation restrains the strong greenback. As the market participants expected, the FOMC meeting minutes released in the week supported the big-step hike during two meetings of FOMC. The Fed has raised the benchmark rate to 0.75~1.0 percent.

The euro rose against the dollar, but the increase of the price was restrained because the expectation of the European Central Bank's hawkish action was already included in the price.

The ECB president Christine Lagarde has commented, the net-purchase of the Asset Purchase Program will be finished in the early 3rd quarter and she expect the minus deposit interest rate returns to the positive rate in the blog. The benchmark rate hike to the positive implies the 50 basis-point hike.

Some strategists think the greenback rally has passed the peak. 

The strategists at Comertz Bank think the possibility of the rate hike by Lagarde in July is very high. They said, the rate of the euro would be raised more and it supported the euro.

But Christian Lindner, German finance minister has spoken, the bearish euro raised the inflation and press the rate hike by ECB though the recession risk.

Meanwhile, some Forex strategists expect the currency pair EUR/USD may fall to 1.02s in a quarter.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

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[EUR] EURO Rally 2022 0525

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] The Technical Rebound of Euro 2022 0522

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has a short position recording the loss in CME.

The currency pair EUR/USD has rallied since the week.

The pair succeeded to rebound on 1.0357 and exceeded the 20 moving average in the one-hour, the four-hour and the daily charts respectively.

The euro rises fluctuating on 20 moving average in the one-hour chart. The currency pair rallied moving in the channel made by the upper band and the middle band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.

The euro has supported on 1.0767x in last mid-month. The price band may restrict the rallying euro and the price of euro may be restrained 1.076x. But it can return to bearish at present price level, 1.07xx.

The price of euro reached the upper band in the daily chart and continued the rally. It may keep the bullish momentum and return to downward trend.

The more time is needed to analyse the mid-and-long term trend.

As the market participants expect the hawkish actions of the European Central Bank, the currency pair EUR/USD got the momentum of rebounding. The currency pair rises since Monday.

It is reported, ECB will finish the negative benchmark rates by the end of the third quarter according to the ECB President Christine Lagarde speak, Monday. And her statements boosted the euro.

The ECB's guidance is that it won't raise interest rates before ending quantitative easing.

Lagarde supported, the benchmark rate would be hiked in the ECB meeting in July. The euro's interest rate will be raised for the first time in the eleven years. If the deposit interest rate exceeds the zero point, it means the big- step hike in July.

Christian Lindner, German finance minister spoke, the bearish euro raised the inflation and press the rate hike by ECB though the recession risk.

 

But the concern to the Federal Reserve seems to go down though the FOMC meeting minutes is released on Wednesday. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed the big-step hike. He has spoken, the interest rate would be risen continuously till the inflation under the control.

The market could react the ECB president's comment.

And the U.S. Preliminary GDP quarter on quarter and the Unemployment Claims are released on Thursday. The Preliminary GDP is expected to be -1.3 percent and the investors expect unemployment claims are 217 thousands increasing. The investors can be acknowledged the Core PCE Price Index on Friday.

The strategists at Comertz Bank think the possibility of the rate hike by Lagarde in July is very high. They said, the rate of the euro would be raised more and it supported the euro.

Meanwhile, some Forex strategists expect the currency pair EUR/USD may fall to 1.02s in a quarter.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com. 

Thank you.

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft

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#Gjallarhorn, #FOREX, #FXMargin, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD

[EUR] The Technical Rebound of Euro 2022 0522

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] The Greenback in Correction 2022 0517

cf. [EUR] Soaring Greenback 2022 0514

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position  in CME and just watches the market.

The currency pair EUR/USD retreated on Friday, but it rose one big prior day exceeding 20 moving average in the daily chart. The pair rose from the support line and has the momentum to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the daily chart.

It touched 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart. It could retreat below the support line, 1.0434. But the rising momentum is found in the daily chart, the euro could rise over 1.07.

The double-tops pattern is found in the one-hour chart. It implies the bearish euro.

The signals from the hour-size charts tell the strong dollar, the daily chart and the weekly chart show the rebound of the euro though.

Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair spoke, the interest rate would be risen continuously till the inflation under the control last week.

Esther L. George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City spoke the Fed watched the tightening in the financial situation, not the effect to the stock market in the interview. 

And the traders need to listen to the news of the possible interest hike by the European Central Bank. It is acknowledged the Fed's big step and the investors prepare the event. But the events from the ECB begin to loom. The market participants may react the ECB's action.

Christian Lindner, German finance minister spoke, the bearish euro raised the inflation and press the rate hike by ECB though the recession risk.

There are the views supporting the strong dollar.

The Forex analysts on ING have spoken, if the risk-averse sentiment is on and the equity markets are bearish, the Dollar Index might exceed over 105.

Some Forex strategists expect the currency pair EUR/USD may fall to 1.02s in a quarter.

And the FOMC's Meeting Minutes last month is released on Wednesday. And the preliminary GDP in the U.S. is released Thursday.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com. 

Thank you.

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft

Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report

https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/

http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #FOREX, #FXMargin, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD

[EUR] The Greenback in Correction 2022 0517

 

cf. [EUR] Soaring Greenback 2022 0514

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position  in CME and just watches the market.

The currency pair EUR/USD edges high since Friday. The pair touched the 120 exponential moving average and tries to break through it in the one-hour chart on Tuesday(GMT).

The pair also exceeded 20 moving average in the four-hour chart since last Friday.

The EUR/USD moves upward gradually exceeding 20MA, it seems to reach the 120 exponential moving average, around 1.053x in the four-hour chart. It can rise to 1.052x, bottom of the price-mixed zone.

It may retreat after the first touch of the meaningful price bands. If the trend turns to upward, it will be succeeded in the second touch or more attempts.

Though its rebounding, the bias to the euro is still short, Gjallarhorn thinks.

After FOMC meeting in the early month, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke that there wouldn't be a giant step, 0.75 percent hike of the benchmark rate. He acknowledged the soft landing of a low inflation and high growth is very difficult at a radio broadcasting interview on last Friday. He spoke he believed, the U.S. economy would avoid the recession.

But some Fed members claim the giant step against the inflation.

The Fed will use the tightening policies against the inflation, it concerns the investors about the recession.

The experts on Forex still predict the strong dollar.

The Forex analysts on ING spoke, if the risk-averse sentiment was on and the equity markets were bearish, the Dollar Index might exceed over 105.

Some Forex stragests expect the currecy pair EUR/USD may fall to 1.02s in a quarter.

Meanwhile an expert in an asset management has forecasted the parity of the euro and the dollar in a half year.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com. 

Thank you.

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft

Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report

https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/

http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #FOREX, #FXMargin, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD

[EUR] Soaring Greenback 2022 0514

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has liquidated the positions of euro in CME and watch the market.

The bearish trend on the euro is explicit.

The retreating euro fluctuates in the narrow channel and continues to fall in the four-hour chart. The currency pair, EUR/USD slips along the channel between the bottom band and the middle band in the Bollinger Bands, the daily chart, and slides down along the bottom band in the weekly chart and the monthly chart.

The traders can confirm the 120 exponential moving average work as the resistance line in the four-hour chart.

The Dollar Index which tracks the greenback against the currency basket of six peers edged down after recording high in 20 years on Friday. And the euro rose. The rebounding of the euro on Friday is looked to be the technical rebound. If the traders want to confirm the bullish on the euro, the price of the pair should be confirmed around 1.0465, 20 moving average and 1.057s, the resistance band in the four-hour chart.

An expert in an asset management forecasts the parity of the euro and the dollar in a half year.

After FOMC meeting in the last week, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke that there wouldn't be a giant step, 0.75 percent hike of the benchmark rate. His comment boosted the market, but the market sank again. Gjallarhorn thinks, the U.S. benchmark rate will hike whether the big step or the giant step. And Powell supported the big step in the next meeting.

He acknowledged the soft landing of a low inflation and high growth is very difficult at a radio broadcasting interview on Friday. He spoke he believed, the U.S. economy would avoid the recession.

But some Fed members claim the giant step against the inflation.

Loretta J. Mester, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland claimed the more hawkish rate hike and supported the pace of hike speed would be quick if the inflation wasn't controlled in September.

It seem to be reasonable to hold the short bias on the euro though euro's rebounding.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com. 

Thank you.

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft

Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report

https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/

http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #FOREX, #FXMargin, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD