cf. [EUR] Soaring Greenback 2022 0514
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has no position in CME and just watches the market.
The currency pair EUR/USD edges high since Friday. The pair touched the 120 exponential moving average and tries to break through it in the one-hour chart on Tuesday(GMT).
The pair also exceeded 20 moving average in the four-hour chart since last Friday.
The EUR/USD moves upward gradually exceeding 20MA, it seems to reach the 120 exponential moving average, around 1.053x in the four-hour chart. It can rise to 1.052x, bottom of the price-mixed zone.
It may retreat after the first touch of the meaningful price bands. If the trend turns to upward, it will be succeeded in the second touch or more attempts.
Though its rebounding, the bias to the euro is still short, Gjallarhorn thinks.
After FOMC meeting in the early month, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke that there wouldn't be a giant step, 0.75 percent hike of the benchmark rate. He acknowledged the soft landing of a low inflation and high growth is very difficult at a radio broadcasting interview on last Friday. He spoke he believed, the U.S. economy would avoid the recession.
But some Fed members claim the giant step against the inflation.
The Fed will use the tightening policies against the inflation, it concerns the investors about the recession.
The experts on Forex still predict the strong dollar.
The Forex analysts on ING spoke, if the risk-averse sentiment was on and the equity markets were bearish, the Dollar Index might exceed over 105.
Some Forex stragests expect the currecy pair EUR/USD may fall to 1.02s in a quarter.
Meanwhile an expert in an asset management has forecasted the parity of the euro and the dollar in a half year.
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