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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] The Technical Rebound of Euro 2022 0522
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has a short position recording the loss in CME.
The currency pair EUR/USD has rallied since the week.
The pair succeeded to rebound on 1.0357 and exceeded the 20 moving average in the one-hour, the four-hour and the daily charts respectively.
The euro rises fluctuating on 20 moving average in the one-hour chart. The currency pair rallied moving in the channel made by the upper band and the middle band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.
The euro has supported on 1.0767x in last mid-month. The price band may restrict the rallying euro and the price of euro may be restrained 1.076x. But it can return to bearish at present price level, 1.07xx.
The price of euro reached the upper band in the daily chart and continued the rally. It may keep the bullish momentum and return to downward trend.
The more time is needed to analyse the mid-and-long term trend.
As the market participants expect the hawkish actions of the European Central Bank, the currency pair EUR/USD got the momentum of rebounding. The currency pair rises since Monday.
It is reported, ECB will finish the negative benchmark rates by the end of the third quarter according to the ECB President Christine Lagarde speak, Monday. And her statements boosted the euro.
The ECB's guidance is that it won't raise interest rates before ending quantitative easing.
Lagarde supported, the benchmark rate would be hiked in the ECB meeting in July. The euro's interest rate will be raised for the first time in the eleven years. If the deposit interest rate exceeds the zero point, it means the big- step hike in July.
Christian Lindner, German finance minister spoke, the bearish euro raised the inflation and press the rate hike by ECB though the recession risk.
But the concern to the Federal Reserve seems to go down though the FOMC meeting minutes is released on Wednesday. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed the big-step hike. He has spoken, the interest rate would be risen continuously till the inflation under the control.
The market could react the ECB president's comment.
And the U.S. Preliminary GDP quarter on quarter and the Unemployment Claims are released on Thursday. The Preliminary GDP is expected to be -1.3 percent and the investors expect unemployment claims are 217 thousands increasing. The investors can be acknowledged the Core PCE Price Index on Friday.
The strategists at Comertz Bank think the possibility of the rate hike by Lagarde in July is very high. They said, the rate of the euro would be raised more and it supported the euro.
Meanwhile, some Forex strategists expect the currency pair EUR/USD may fall to 1.02s in a quarter.
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