[USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030

cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021
cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011

Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC is hold and release the benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, and currency goods of USDX, currency pair, futures and etc. await FOMC's release moving steady.

USDX, dollar index hits 97.72, currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11105 and euro FX-2019 12 or 6EZ19 is 1.11460 as of 14:15(UTC).

Market participants expect Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate 25bp(0.25 percent) to 1.50~1.75 percent, interest rate band. It means U.S. Dollar falls down.

But market watches Federal Chair's mouth rather than interest rate. Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Fedwatch anticipates Fed's rate-cut with 97 percent, news medias already reported.Though Fed cuts the rate, Fed chair Jerome Powell's hint of the end of rate-cut cycle gives strong momentum to greenback and dollar index, USDX may keep its upward trend in long term

And growing risk of global recession calls safe-haven asset including USD, it raise the price of USD.

Goldilocks in U.S. shows its termination with bad economy indices step by step. Advance GDP in third quarter hit 1.9 percent below 2.0 percent. It makes USD down but global economy is worse.

If Fed cut the interest rate, it is 1.50~1.75 percent higher than euro's one, zero percent. Greenback still has energy of rising.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021
cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

British parliament's vote on Brexit agreement affects euro as well as pound. The decision of vote delaying devaluated euro and the expectation of soft Brexit made them up.

Brexit on time, October 31 doesn't seem to enforce but market participants guess soft Brexit in extended time, and it led euro and sterling on Wednesday. Market participants expect European Union, EU will approve British ask of extension Brexit, and England Prime Minister Boris Johnson is known to be going to hold general election ahead of Christmas.

In any cases, the possibility of No-deal Brexit goes low.

European Central Bank, ECB holds the meeting and decides euro interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate today. This is last meeting held Mario Draghi, ECB president and it seems to freeze the rate at this meeting.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy which has been under Goldilocks seems to enter the recession step by step, too. It devalues dollar. And market participants expect the additional U.S. interest rate cut in the month then dollar falls after Fed's decision.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.11337 and euro fx-2019 12, 6EZ19 records 1.11715 as of 05:46(UTC).

Rising euro since last Tuesday is under the correction. And it tries making Head-and-Shoulders pattern in four-hour chart. If the price falls, 120 Exponential Moving Average, some 1.1060 in four-hour chart may support it. There is possibility of falling to 1.10, too.

An analyst said his view of weak euro to Dow-Jones, because bond spreads between euro zone and Europe countries go narrow more and there is little momentum of euro's rebounding.

The price of pair is under the main downward trend line. EUR/USD has a certain reason of rising for trying breaking through trend line as a resistance line.









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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

Brexit issue raised the price of British pound and euro. The fear of No-deal Brexit has discounted Europe currencies, especially British pound. And euro has been affected, too. The agreement in last week gave the traders the expectation of soft Brexit and the uncertainty removal.

But British parliament delayed the agreement and called another extension of dead line. It made Europe currencies are in the correction.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy which has been under Goldilocks seems to enter the recession step by step, too. It devalues dollar. And market participants expect the additional U.S. interest rate cut in the month then dollar falls after Fed's decision.

Currency pair EUR/USD continued rising after Brexit draft agreement and is under the correction. It is 1.1153 as of 13:49(UTC), and euro fx-201912 or 6EZ19 hits 1.11965, 0.16 percent down, 13:50(UTC), now.

The daily chart of currency pair shows the price rises along upper band of Bollinger Bands and has broken through 120 exponential moving average and faces main downward trend line, and the price rose on middle band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. The price may test breaking through the trend line and powerful resistance line though Brexit dispute. If it succeeds, euro can reach 1.1300s.

There may be the correction, but the trend seems upward. An news media reported sterling could reach 1.30 and was even able to 1.33 over if British parliament approved it citing analyst's comment. The opposition doesn't agree the draft yet, and it restrain the rising of sterling.

















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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화