[GBP] Correction or Trend turning? 2019 1106

GBP/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

EU President Jean Claude Juncker spoke England would leave EU on next January 31 and no more deal. English voted to Brexit in the referendum in 2016, but Brexit isn't yet. And the general election of England is hold on December 12.

Market has worried 'No Deal Brexit' but English Premier Boris Johnson lowered the risk of No-Deal. It supported sterling.

British benchmark interest rate, Official Bank Rate is release tomorrow. It is 0.75 percent and market participants expect it frozen.

Ahead of the meeting of Bank of England and the release of Official Bank Rate, Currency pair GBP/USD moves steady. It is 1.2876 as of 12:30(UTC).

But currency pair tries to build double-tops pattern in the daily chart. The pattern implies price falling. The price of pair rebounded since August and it's natural to think the correction.

GBP/USD has risen and faces 120 EMA(exponential moving average), which does as a resistance line. British pound tries to break through the resistance line but it doesn't succeed yet.

Easing no-deal Brexit risk supports sterling, but British economy is not as good as United States'. It seems that sterling will be corrected at 120 EMA.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드화

[EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021
cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

British parliament's vote on Brexit agreement affects euro as well as pound. The decision of vote delaying devaluated euro and the expectation of soft Brexit made them up.

Brexit on time, October 31 doesn't seem to enforce but market participants guess soft Brexit in extended time, and it led euro and sterling on Wednesday. Market participants expect European Union, EU will approve British ask of extension Brexit, and England Prime Minister Boris Johnson is known to be going to hold general election ahead of Christmas.

In any cases, the possibility of No-deal Brexit goes low.

European Central Bank, ECB holds the meeting and decides euro interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate today. This is last meeting held Mario Draghi, ECB president and it seems to freeze the rate at this meeting.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy which has been under Goldilocks seems to enter the recession step by step, too. It devalues dollar. And market participants expect the additional U.S. interest rate cut in the month then dollar falls after Fed's decision.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.11337 and euro fx-2019 12, 6EZ19 records 1.11715 as of 05:46(UTC).

Rising euro since last Tuesday is under the correction. And it tries making Head-and-Shoulders pattern in four-hour chart. If the price falls, 120 Exponential Moving Average, some 1.1060 in four-hour chart may support it. There is possibility of falling to 1.10, too.

An analyst said his view of weak euro to Dow-Jones, because bond spreads between euro zone and Europe countries go narrow more and there is little momentum of euro's rebounding.

The price of pair is under the main downward trend line. EUR/USD has a certain reason of rising for trying breaking through trend line as a resistance line.









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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[GBP] Short Bias to Cable 2019 0820

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Falling Pound 2019 0618
cf. [GBP] Triangle pattern and Brexit 2019 0412

English Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared Brexit on October 31. He has told England would exit EU though hard Brexit or no-deal Brexit. And he announced the freedom of residency and passage of EU citizens in England after Brexit. His planned policy has made Europeans including English panic.

As we have been informed, the main issue on British pound is Brexit. And Prime Minister Johnson's speak affects British Pound down.

Whether hard Brexit or soft Brexit, Pound seems to decide upward or downward after October 31. And pound continues loss of its value.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[GBP] Falling Pound 2019 0618

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Triangle pattern and Brexit 2019 0412

We need to observe the plutonomic situation watching news stories as we do on euro.

As we are informed, the main issue on British pound is Brexit. Brexit risk moves cable down. European Union agreed the deadline of Brexit to move to October 31. But the failure of English parliament vote has made Prime Minister Therese May spoke her resignation on May 24. The ruling Conservative Party prepares to elect new leader of the party and the cabinet.

Boris Johnson, former Minister of Foreign Affairs is a leading candidate of the election, and he has spoken Brexit and he doesn't care 'No Deal Brexit', Brexit without any agreement.

There is high possibility of Hawkish Johnson is elected as a Premier, and market worries 'No deal Brexit'.

The worry makes British Pound down.

In weekly chart of currency pair of GBP/USD, the price steps down since last year. The price failed to break through upper band of Bollinger band and 120 exponential Moving Average and is felling since February. Daily chart and four-hour chart don't give any hope of pound's recovery.

If pound rebounds, it will be the chance of selling pound and buying dollar.

While Brexit crisis, it is available to keep short bias to pound.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[GBP] Triangle pattern and Brexit 2019 0412

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The main issue on British pound is Brexit. Brexit risk moves cable up and down and it doesn't come yet.

European Union agreed the deadline of Brexit to move to October 31. The fear of ''no deal Brexit'' is removed and English can think leaving more carefully.

But one of the currency pairs, GBP/USD has lowered its peaks since mid March making ''triangle pattern''. U.S. dollar shows long stance against euro and the weak moving of pound is due to global strong dollar. And the good records from United States economy leads strong greenback and weak cable.

And The US president Donald Trump and his staff are pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates. It may stimulate weak dollar.




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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[EUR] 일단 가격 하락 진정세 2019 0217

cf. < [EUR]   Expecting Rebound 2019 0211
cf. < [USDX] Correction anticipated 2019 0210
cf. < [EUR]   Still Uncertainty  2019 0201
cf. < [USDX] Keeping Long 2019 0124
cf. < [USDX] Turning to Dove 2019 0107



올해가 시작되기 전 여러 경제 연구소와 단체에서는 달러 약세를 전망했습니다. 하지만 관계자들의 기대와는 달리 달러는 강세를 띠고 있으며, 이에 비해 유로화는 약세를 면치 못하고 있습니다.

주요 통화쌍 가운데 하나인 유로-달러 차트는 전형적인 약세장을 보여주고 있는데요, 네 시간 차트와 한 시간 차트에서는 추세 전환 패턴인 헤드-앤-숄더 패턴과 어린 아이들도 알 수 있을 정도로 일방적인 가격 하락을 보여주고 있습니다.

특히 한 시간 차트에서 유로 달러 가격은 20일 이동평균선을 돌파하지 못하고 속절없이 하락하기만 했는데, 어쩌다 20일 선을 돌파하더라도 이내 20일 선 밑으로 가격이 떨어졌습니다. 네 시간 차트에서는 20일 이동평균선 돌파는 고사하고 볼린저 밴드의 하단 밴드를 따라 가격이 내려가기만 했습니다.

이런 상황은 2월 중순에 접어들면서 진정되기 시작했는데, 거침없던 하락세가 멈춘 것에 불과한 것인지 이제 가격 반전이 일어나는지는 좀 더 지켜볼 필요가 있겠습니다.

지난 13일 한 시간 차트에서 가격은 20일선 뿐 아니라 120일 지수이동평균선 돌파를 시도하기까지 했는데, 돌파는 실패하고 가격이 다시 하락했고, 지난 주 금요일고부터 다시 120일 선 돌파를 시도하고 있습니다. 만약 120일 지수이동평균선을 상향 돌파한다면 단기적으로 유로화는 상승세를 이어갈 가능성이 높습니다.

현재 한 시간 차트의 120일선은 네 시간 차트의 20일 이동평균선과 비슷한 위치에 있는데, 한 시간 차트에서 120일선 돌파에 성공하면 네 시간차트에서는 20일 이동평균선 돌파에 성공하는 것이고 다시 네 시간 차트에서 볼린저 밴드 상단 밴드와 120일 지수이동평균선을 차례로 돌파한다면 유로화의 강세는 좀 더 길어질 것입니다.

가격이 상승세를 이어가면 1.1375 부근에서 의미있는 추세선을 만나는데 2016년 말부터 형성된 가격 지지선입니다. 그 동안 가격 지지선이 무너지긴 했지만 유로화는 얼마 뒤 지지선 위로 올라서며 이 추세선이 지지선임을 확인시켜줬습니다. 올해에도 유로화는 이 추세선 밑으로 내려갔는데, 곧바로 이 추세선 위로 올라서지 못하고 가격 하락을 이어갔습니다. 그래서 유로화가 이 추세선을 다시 만날 때 이 선이 그 동안의 지지선 역할을 해줄지 이제는 저항선으로 작용할 지 지켜볼 필요가 있겠습니다.

올 초 환율은 외환시장 내의 움직임보다는 시장 외적인 측면에 의해 좌우된 면이 매우 컸습니다. 달러 강세, 유로 약세는 기술적인 측면이 아니라, 경제 뉴스, 즉 미국과 중국과의 무역전쟁, 영국의 브렉시트 혼란, 유로존의 경제 부진에서 비롯됐습니다. 특히 유로존의 부진은 유로화 약세에 매우 부정적이었습니다. 그래서 어떤 뉴스가 나올 때마다 유로화는 무너지기만 했습니다.

그래서 당분간은 환율 자체의 기술적 분석보다는 경제뉴스에 더 관심을 기울일 필요가 있겠습니다.

감사합니다.





문의사항은 다음 이 메일이나 텔레그램으로 해주시면 감사하겠습니다.

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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[GBP] Response Rather than Prediction 2019 0117

GBP/USD four-hour chart, soure:FXDD.com

It is usually told that the trading is not the prediction but the response. Traders don't need to analyse and predict the market, tell someone.

These words are evaluated now, because the global economy put traders into the filed of more difficult level.

One of the major currency pair, GBP/USD is tested its trend due to Brexit on March 29. Members of Parliament rejected Brexit draft on Tuesday. Most of economists, analysts and traders expected the meaningful vote would be failed and the result of the vote didn't  affected to the market strongly.

But it is hard to analyse and predict the trend of GBP/USD. It makes traders to respond to the market not to expect.

Despite the failure of the meaningful vote, the pound was not shaken nor turned to downward trend. Rather, it is the figure that keeps rising for dollar little by little.

We need to watch the chart more carefully.




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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, pound, GBP, GBP/USD, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[EUR] After Brexit

EUR/USD 4-HOUR CHART, SOURCE: FOREXFACTORY.COM

 The unexpected event happened. I want to tell just watching the market. It may hurt traders entering the market in this week. I have thought English people are conservative and reluctant to do racial decision. But my bias is determined incorrect.

It's not certain where the markets go yet. After the plunge of major currencies agaist U.S. Dollar, they attempt to return but it's not reliable. The returning attempt is the characteristic of currency not the reversal toward uptrend.

The market situation precedes the technical analysis. We don't know participants consensus yet, we need to just watch the charts. Because we entere the market to get profit not to be famous.

EUR/USD WEEKLY CHART, SOURCE: FOREXFACTORY.COM