[GBP] Pound, Attempting Rebound 2020 0701

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX which is liquidated on September, and it is in the loss section.

The currency pair GBP/USD broke thorough 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart and 120 Exponential Moving Average in the one-hour chart, respectively. The pair seems to rise after the some correction.

Pound formed the price-downturn pattern, Head-and-Shoulders pattern for a month. The pattern is expected to be completed and it gives a hint of rebounding.

Gjallarhorn recommends the long bias of pound against dollar. But the 20-MA in the four-hour chart doesn't give a signal of upward sterling yet, traders need to provide for the pound's drop against dollar.

It is reasonable get a long position after the correction. The 120 EMA in the one-hour chart is 1.2371, the 20 MA in the four-hour chart is 1.2347. We need to check whether these prices support sterling. In worse case, the currency pair can retreat to 1.2256, previous bottom.

The outlook of global economy and Forex market is determined by when the vaccine against the respiratory virus COVID-19. The number of COVID-19 cases, however, increases again, the US economy is slowing to normalize.

Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported market experts expected strong dollar in this week on Monday. It reported southern U.S. postponed reopening of economy and the recovery of U.S. economy could be slower if the blockage of economy spread quoting DowJones.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified that the outlook of the U.S. economy is very uncertain in the House of Representatives on Tuesday.

And EU leaders meet on July 17 and 18 and try the final agreement about Europe recovery fund package. They will discuss EU MFF, spokesperson of European Council said on his twitter.

Some countries in Euro zone have been opposed the supporting way of the recovery fund by European Council, and it has been doubted the package will be passed in the committee.

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[GBP] Short-term Downward Trend 2020 0113

GBP/USD, four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111
cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

British Pound fell and made the short-term downward trend. It is needed to watch with short bias.

One of major currency pair, GBP/USD is on the support line which was the resistance line in last November, but it is not certain the line does well.

Pound is trying to build Double-tops pattern in daily chart. It may be retreated to 1.2827 which is 120 exponential moving average and second support line.

In four-hour chart, the price tries to rebound on the support line, but it doesn't give strong trust. So we need to watch the chart whether pound is supported by price band of 1.29199 to 1.29650.

British GDP released on Monday was -0.3 percent and it was worse than expected growth 0.0 percent. It led sterling downward. The easing tension between the United States and Iran supported supported the risky asset and currencies. Euro rose due to it. But sterling failed to be supported because there is still Brexit risk. London decided to leave Europe in this month, it doesn't make clear British economy, yet.

Gjallarhorn has long position of euro. It records loss, now.


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Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise 2019 1230

EUR/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11174 on December 27, 2019. As this year goes end, the variation of the currency narrows.

Euro builds triangle pattern and it faces the right edge of triangle in the weekly chart. It shows that euro accumulates the momentum and will jump or plunge soon.

If it has rising momentum, it can rise to 1.1380s which is 120 exponential moving average at first.

The first-step agreement of U.S.-China Trade talks will be signed in next month, and it leads market participants to buy risky asset.

Euro rallies at the end of the year. Euro broke through 200 Moving Average and downward trend line since 2018. And it has reached upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. It may test breaking over 120 Exponential Moving Average. Euro surges over the trend line in Asian session at the end of the year.

U.S. news agency, Bloomberg reported analysts who answered the survey expected euro to rise more four percent against greenback. They guess euro will be supported by global economy recovery and political tension easing in the next year.

And traders are expected to buy euro, news medias report.

And ECB president Christine Lagarde has spoken she found the clues of the euro-zone-economy recovery in her first ECB meeting. She has had spoken QE before. As well as traders, economists think euro-zone economy will rebound in the next year.

But some participants think the trade war is not finished yet. There will be more difficult second and third round of trade talks and it is not certain the talks reach the agreement.

And there is another political variation, U.S. Presidential Election in the next year. Donald Trump, President is expected to win the election but there are still variations while the campaign.

In England, the Conservatives won  the parliament election and no-deal fear diminishes. But risk of hard Brexit disturbs the rising of GBP.

British PM, Boris Johnson confirmed the Brexit in January, 2020, but someone think it doesn't mean soft Brexit.
Hard Brexit as well as no deal may lower economy growth in Europe and euro, major currency in Europe is affected by Brexit risk, too.

Meanwhile we need to watch Chinese economy carefully in next year. Though U.S.-Sino Trade War ends its first round, the loan risk of Chinese corporations rises more an more.

The profit of government-controlled corporations decreased in 2019 due to the decline of infrastructure construction in China. These corporations reportedly have high debt level and depend on infrastructure construction.

The worse health of companies calls default.

This report is for Forex not Chinese equities. German economy as well as emerging markets depends on Chinese economy, and U.S.-Sino Trade War lowered the global trade and euro zone economy. We need to be interested in China, too. And China is one of big two economy entities.


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[GBP] Correction or Trend turning? 2019 1106

GBP/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

EU President Jean Claude Juncker spoke England would leave EU on next January 31 and no more deal. English voted to Brexit in the referendum in 2016, but Brexit isn't yet. And the general election of England is hold on December 12.

Market has worried 'No Deal Brexit' but English Premier Boris Johnson lowered the risk of No-Deal. It supported sterling.

British benchmark interest rate, Official Bank Rate is release tomorrow. It is 0.75 percent and market participants expect it frozen.

Ahead of the meeting of Bank of England and the release of Official Bank Rate, Currency pair GBP/USD moves steady. It is 1.2876 as of 12:30(UTC).

But currency pair tries to build double-tops pattern in the daily chart. The pattern implies price falling. The price of pair rebounded since August and it's natural to think the correction.

GBP/USD has risen and faces 120 EMA(exponential moving average), which does as a resistance line. British pound tries to break through the resistance line but it doesn't succeed yet.

Easing no-deal Brexit risk supports sterling, but British economy is not as good as United States'. It seems that sterling will be corrected at 120 EMA.





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[GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The agreement of Brexit draft supported sterling. Price of currency pair GBP/USD and futures, 6BZ19 rose, and currency pair ended this week with 1.29475 and futures 2019-12, 6BZ19 with 1.3019.

Since English's choice of Brexit, sterling has been devaluated, due to the anxiety of British economy. And British Pound has been under downward trend line.

The dispute among English and administration has disappointed market participants. Boris Johnson, Premier since July spoke he didn't care even 'No Deal Brexit' and pound devalued more.

The agreement in the week gave the expectation of soft Brexit and led sterling up.

The pair GBP/USD broke through 20 moving average and 120 exponential moving average sequentially. Daily chart and four-hour chart showed rising price along upper band in Bollinger Bands. And sterling reached upper band and faced 120 exponential moving average in the weekly chart.

There may be the correction, but the trend seems upward. An news media reported sterling could reach 1.30 and was even able to 1.33 over if British parliament approved it citing analyst's comment. The opposition doesn't agree the draft yet, and it restrain the rising of sterling.

U.S. economy indices show U.S. economy is not always good. It can make Fed cut interest rate again. and devalue dollar.

As well as euro, sterling price seems to rise against U.S. dollar in short term.














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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드화

[GBP] Short Bias to Cable 2019 0820

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Falling Pound 2019 0618
cf. [GBP] Triangle pattern and Brexit 2019 0412

English Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared Brexit on October 31. He has told England would exit EU though hard Brexit or no-deal Brexit. And he announced the freedom of residency and passage of EU citizens in England after Brexit. His planned policy has made Europeans including English panic.

As we have been informed, the main issue on British pound is Brexit. And Prime Minister Johnson's speak affects British Pound down.

Whether hard Brexit or soft Brexit, Pound seems to decide upward or downward after October 31. And pound continues loss of its value.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[GBP] Falling Pound 2019 0618

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Triangle pattern and Brexit 2019 0412

We need to observe the plutonomic situation watching news stories as we do on euro.

As we are informed, the main issue on British pound is Brexit. Brexit risk moves cable down. European Union agreed the deadline of Brexit to move to October 31. But the failure of English parliament vote has made Prime Minister Therese May spoke her resignation on May 24. The ruling Conservative Party prepares to elect new leader of the party and the cabinet.

Boris Johnson, former Minister of Foreign Affairs is a leading candidate of the election, and he has spoken Brexit and he doesn't care 'No Deal Brexit', Brexit without any agreement.

There is high possibility of Hawkish Johnson is elected as a Premier, and market worries 'No deal Brexit'.

The worry makes British Pound down.

In weekly chart of currency pair of GBP/USD, the price steps down since last year. The price failed to break through upper band of Bollinger band and 120 exponential Moving Average and is felling since February. Daily chart and four-hour chart don't give any hope of pound's recovery.

If pound rebounds, it will be the chance of selling pound and buying dollar.

While Brexit crisis, it is available to keep short bias to pound.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[GBP] Triangle pattern and Brexit 2019 0412

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The main issue on British pound is Brexit. Brexit risk moves cable up and down and it doesn't come yet.

European Union agreed the deadline of Brexit to move to October 31. The fear of ''no deal Brexit'' is removed and English can think leaving more carefully.

But one of the currency pairs, GBP/USD has lowered its peaks since mid March making ''triangle pattern''. U.S. dollar shows long stance against euro and the weak moving of pound is due to global strong dollar. And the good records from United States economy leads strong greenback and weak cable.

And The US president Donald Trump and his staff are pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates. It may stimulate weak dollar.




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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[GBP] Response Rather than Prediction 2019 0117

GBP/USD four-hour chart, soure:FXDD.com

It is usually told that the trading is not the prediction but the response. Traders don't need to analyse and predict the market, tell someone.

These words are evaluated now, because the global economy put traders into the filed of more difficult level.

One of the major currency pair, GBP/USD is tested its trend due to Brexit on March 29. Members of Parliament rejected Brexit draft on Tuesday. Most of economists, analysts and traders expected the meaningful vote would be failed and the result of the vote didn't  affected to the market strongly.

But it is hard to analyse and predict the trend of GBP/USD. It makes traders to respond to the market not to expect.

Despite the failure of the meaningful vote, the pound was not shaken nor turned to downward trend. Rather, it is the figure that keeps rising for dollar little by little.

We need to watch the chart more carefully.




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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, pound, GBP, GBP/USD, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[GBP] Downward Pound 2018 1109

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

As euro does, GBP/USD, one of the major currency reduces its peaks in weekly chart. It may be available to keep the short bias of GBP/USD.

Since November 7, the price of the currency pair falls and it seem to keep its downward trend. The falling Pound reached bottom band of Bollinger Bands in four-hour chart and broken central line doesn't support Pound's rebound in the bands. And one-hour chart attempts to build the pattern but it may be failed due to bigger time chart.

The economy medias report the gloomy economy in next year. The United States is expected to get just 2.5 percent of GDP growth and China, one of G2 would record GDP growth to be 6.2 percent, lower than tentative 6.6 percent in this year. Some economists predict gold price up and greenback down in next year. Weak greenback means strong its pair, such as British Pound, euro, Japanese Yen and so on. The short bias to the major currency pairs may face shift to long.

In this year, long bias to greenback may be supported.


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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR/USD, EUR, Euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로/달러, 유로화

[LTL] Susilpninti aukštyn Momentum

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

Falling kainą GBP / USD nuo Brexit apklausa atšoko sausio viduryje ir nuolat savo tendenciją. Tačiau jos tendencija prarado pagreitį ir atsitraukti šį mėnesį. Kaina nukrito žemiau tendencija linija išsilygino. Sterlingas bando prisikelti, bet atrodo, kad pertrauka per didėjimo tendencija linija vargu. Ši tendencija linija veikia kaip atsparumo linija šį kartą, manau. Jis gali būti sunku peržengti 1.2650.

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[GBP]上昇の勢いを弱める

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

Brexitの調査が1月中旬に反発し、その上昇傾向を維持して以来、GBP / USDの値下がり。 しかし、その傾向は勢いを失い、今月に戻りました。 価格は横ばいのトレンドラインを下回った。 スターリングは再び上昇しようとしますが、上向きのトレンドラインをほとんど破らないようです。 今回はトレンドラインが抵抗線として機能すると思います。 1.2650を上回るのは難しいかもしれません。

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[GBP] Weaken Upward Momentum

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

Falling price of GBP/USD since Brexit poll rebounded in mid January and kept its upward trend. But its trend lost the momentum and step back in this month. The price fell below the trend line leveled off. Sterling attempts to rise again but it seems to break over the upward trend line hardly. The trend line act as a resistance line this time, I think. It may be hard to step over 1.2650.

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[GBP] Lygis išjungimo po ralio

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

Didžiosios Britanijos svaro arba LTL susibūrė JAV dolerio atžvilgiu nuo praėjusių pirmadienį ir IT lygis ne po du savaičių ralio. Iš valiutų poros GBP / USD kaina įveikė 1.2670 ketvirtadienį ir tai pagal koregavimas. Bet tai rekolekcijos žemiau paramos linija, tai neaišku, ar sterlingų prasideda ralis dar kartą. Atrodo, kad sterlingų sidles ir laipteliai po truputį. Yra galimybė rudenį priėmimo Head-and-pečių modelio. Bet kuriuo atveju jis gali atsitraukti į 1.2420.


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[GBP]ラリー後のレベルオフ

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

英ポンド、またはGBPは、先週の月曜日以来、米ドルに対して反発しており、2週間のラリーを終えた後は、横ばいです。 通貨ペアGBP / USDの価格は木曜日に1.2670を突破し、調整中です。 しかし、支持線の下に後退し、スターリングが再びラリーを開始するかどうかは不明です。 それは純粋な馬小屋と少しずつ降りていくようです。 頭と肩のパターンを作る落下の可能性があります。 いずれにしても、それは1.2420に戻ることができる。


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[GBP] Level-off after Rally

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

British pound, or GBP has rallied against U.S. dollar since last Monday and it levels off after two-weeks rally. The price of currency pair GBP/USD broke through 1.2670 on Thursday and it is under the adjustment. But it retreats below the support line, it is uncertain whether sterling begins the rally again. It seems that sterling sidles and steps down little by little. There is possibility of fall making Head-and-Shoulders pattern. In any case it may step back to 1.2420.

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まだ有効なショートバイアス

主要通貨ペアGBP / USDは月曜日に突然上昇した。それは1.2500以上1.2325sから飛び降り、やや戻ってきた。通貨ペアは下落傾向にあります。

ブルームバーグによると、ブルームバーグによると、イギリスの首相が、英国の主要企業のロビー団体から、欧州連合（EU）の「崖の上の入末」を避けるよう呼び掛けたことが認められた。

しかし、我々はGBP / USDの週次チャートを見る必要があり、それはメインストリームの下降傾向を示しています。そのピークは2014年以来徐々に低下しており、10月中旬以降の上昇傾向は傾向転換ではなく一時的な調整と思われる。トレンドが変化する前に、抵抗バンドを数回破壊する必要があります。ゲームはロングとショートの間で行われます。

4時間のチャートでは、通貨ペアの価格は急騰する価格で頭と肩のパターンを描く。パターンはまだ完了していませんが、完了します。

予想される出来事は強いドルを支えます。ドナルド・トランプ氏はすでに大統領選挙で優勝し、「強アメリカ」と「新防衛主義」を語っている。 Fedの議長Janet Yellenは来月、Fed Fundamental Rateを引き上げようとしています。

短いバイアスを保つことは妥当だと思います。

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[GBP] Short Bias Still Valid

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

GBP/USD weekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

Major currency pair GBP/USD rose suddenly on Monday. It jumped from 1.2325s over 1.2500 and it steps back somewhat. The currency pair has been under the downward trend.

U.S. economy news agency, Bloomberg reported that sterling rose as Britain Prime Minister acknowledged calls from Britain’s main corporate lobby group to avoid a “cliff-edge” exit from the European Union this day.

But we need to watch the weekly chart of GBP/USD, and it shows the downward trend of main stream. Its peaks gradually have lowered since 2014 and upward trend since mid October seems temporary adjustment rather than trend turn. Before the trend swings, it has to break the resistance band several times. The game is played between Long and Short.

In four-hour chart, the price of currency pair draws the Head-and-Shoulders pattern though surging price. The pattern is not completed yet, but will be done.

The expected events support the strong dollar. Donald Trump already won the Presidential Election and he speaks 'Strong America' and 'Neoisolationism'. Fed chair Janet Yellen looks to decide to raise Fed Fundamental Rate next month.

I think it is reasonable to hold short bias.

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[GBP] 短期バイアス

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

GBP/USD wekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

通貨ペアGBP / USDは、ギャップの縮小から始まり、今週は高値に終わった。米国の大統領選挙後には、価格は月曜日にギャップを埋めることができなかった。それは1.25を上回り、以前の価格に戻った。しかし、このギャップは2日間で橋渡しされた。時間が経つにつれて、米ドルへの映画の価格はその方向を上向きにした。

今週の市場は高値で記録を終えたが、1時間チャートでは頭と肩のパターンを描こうとした。それは価格の喪失を意味する。ウィークリー・チャートではポジティブ・キャンドルを去ったが、調整に直面する可能性がある。

1時間チャートの頭と肩のパターンのパターンが完了し、調整がチャートで明示的に確認されます。価格は今週サポート価格帯1.2425に戻ってくるかもしれない、と私は予想している。

しかし、チャートが徐々にピークを下げるため、主な傾向は下向きです。それは短期間で長いバイアスを得る必要があります。

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[GBP] Short Bias

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

GBP/USD weekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

The currency pair GBP/USD began with gap decline and ended high this week.  The price failed to bridge the gap on Monday but it was bridged after the U.S. Presidential election. It rocketed over 1.25 and returned to previous price. But the gap was bridged in two days. As time went, the price of sterling to U.S. dollar turned its direction to up.

This week market ended recording sterling high, but the one-hour chart attempted to draw the Head-and-Shoulders pattern. It means the lost of price. Though it leaved the positive candle in the weekly chart, it may face the adjustment.

The pattern of Head-and-Shoulders pattern in one-hour chart may be completed and the adjustment is confirmed explicitly in the chart. The price may step back to 1.2425, the support price band this week, I anticipate.

But main trend is downward because the chart gradually lower peaks. It need to get long bias in short term.

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