[GBP] Pound, Attempting Rebound 2020 0701

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX which is liquidated on September, and it is in the loss section.

The currency pair GBP/USD broke thorough 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart and 120 Exponential Moving Average in the one-hour chart, respectively. The pair seems to rise after the some correction.

Pound formed the price-downturn pattern, Head-and-Shoulders pattern for a month. The pattern is expected to be completed and it gives a hint of rebounding.

Gjallarhorn recommends the long bias of pound against dollar. But the 20-MA in the four-hour chart doesn't give a signal of upward sterling yet, traders need to provide for the pound's drop against dollar.

It is reasonable get a long position after the correction. The 120 EMA in the one-hour chart is 1.2371, the 20 MA in the four-hour chart is 1.2347. We need to check whether these prices support sterling. In worse case, the currency pair can retreat to 1.2256, previous bottom.

The outlook of global economy and Forex market is determined by when the vaccine against the respiratory virus COVID-19. The number of COVID-19 cases, however, increases again, the US economy is slowing to normalize.

Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported market experts expected strong dollar in this week on Monday. It reported southern U.S. postponed reopening of economy and the recovery of U.S. economy could be slower if the blockage of economy spread quoting DowJones.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified that the outlook of the U.S. economy is very uncertain in the House of Representatives on Tuesday.

And EU leaders meet on July 17 and 18 and try the final agreement about Europe recovery fund package. They will discuss EU MFF, spokesperson of European Council said on his twitter.

Some countries in Euro zone have been opposed the supporting way of the recovery fund by European Council, and it has been doubted the package will be passed in the committee.

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[GBP] Short-term Downward Trend 2020 0113

GBP/USD, four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111
cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

British Pound fell and made the short-term downward trend. It is needed to watch with short bias.

One of major currency pair, GBP/USD is on the support line which was the resistance line in last November, but it is not certain the line does well.

Pound is trying to build Double-tops pattern in daily chart. It may be retreated to 1.2827 which is 120 exponential moving average and second support line.

In four-hour chart, the price tries to rebound on the support line, but it doesn't give strong trust. So we need to watch the chart whether pound is supported by price band of 1.29199 to 1.29650.

British GDP released on Monday was -0.3 percent and it was worse than expected growth 0.0 percent. It led sterling downward. The easing tension between the United States and Iran supported supported the risky asset and currencies. Euro rose due to it. But sterling failed to be supported because there is still Brexit risk. London decided to leave Europe in this month, it doesn't make clear British economy, yet.

Gjallarhorn has long position of euro. It records loss, now.


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Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise 2019 1230

EUR/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11174 on December 27, 2019. As this year goes end, the variation of the currency narrows.

Euro builds triangle pattern and it faces the right edge of triangle in the weekly chart. It shows that euro accumulates the momentum and will jump or plunge soon.

If it has rising momentum, it can rise to 1.1380s which is 120 exponential moving average at first.

The first-step agreement of U.S.-China Trade talks will be signed in next month, and it leads market participants to buy risky asset.

Euro rallies at the end of the year. Euro broke through 200 Moving Average and downward trend line since 2018. And it has reached upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. It may test breaking over 120 Exponential Moving Average. Euro surges over the trend line in Asian session at the end of the year.

U.S. news agency, Bloomberg reported analysts who answered the survey expected euro to rise more four percent against greenback. They guess euro will be supported by global economy recovery and political tension easing in the next year.

And traders are expected to buy euro, news medias report.

And ECB president Christine Lagarde has spoken she found the clues of the euro-zone-economy recovery in her first ECB meeting. She has had spoken QE before. As well as traders, economists think euro-zone economy will rebound in the next year.

But some participants think the trade war is not finished yet. There will be more difficult second and third round of trade talks and it is not certain the talks reach the agreement.

And there is another political variation, U.S. Presidential Election in the next year. Donald Trump, President is expected to win the election but there are still variations while the campaign.

In England, the Conservatives won  the parliament election and no-deal fear diminishes. But risk of hard Brexit disturbs the rising of GBP.

British PM, Boris Johnson confirmed the Brexit in January, 2020, but someone think it doesn't mean soft Brexit.
Hard Brexit as well as no deal may lower economy growth in Europe and euro, major currency in Europe is affected by Brexit risk, too.

Meanwhile we need to watch Chinese economy carefully in next year. Though U.S.-Sino Trade War ends its first round, the loan risk of Chinese corporations rises more an more.

The profit of government-controlled corporations decreased in 2019 due to the decline of infrastructure construction in China. These corporations reportedly have high debt level and depend on infrastructure construction.

The worse health of companies calls default.

This report is for Forex not Chinese equities. German economy as well as emerging markets depends on Chinese economy, and U.S.-Sino Trade War lowered the global trade and euro zone economy. We need to be interested in China, too. And China is one of big two economy entities.


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[GBP] Correction or Trend turning? 2019 1106

GBP/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

EU President Jean Claude Juncker spoke England would leave EU on next January 31 and no more deal. English voted to Brexit in the referendum in 2016, but Brexit isn't yet. And the general election of England is hold on December 12.

Market has worried 'No Deal Brexit' but English Premier Boris Johnson lowered the risk of No-Deal. It supported sterling.

British benchmark interest rate, Official Bank Rate is release tomorrow. It is 0.75 percent and market participants expect it frozen.

Ahead of the meeting of Bank of England and the release of Official Bank Rate, Currency pair GBP/USD moves steady. It is 1.2876 as of 12:30(UTC).

But currency pair tries to build double-tops pattern in the daily chart. The pattern implies price falling. The price of pair rebounded since August and it's natural to think the correction.

GBP/USD has risen and faces 120 EMA(exponential moving average), which does as a resistance line. British pound tries to break through the resistance line but it doesn't succeed yet.

Easing no-deal Brexit risk supports sterling, but British economy is not as good as United States'. It seems that sterling will be corrected at 120 EMA.





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[GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The agreement of Brexit draft supported sterling. Price of currency pair GBP/USD and futures, 6BZ19 rose, and currency pair ended this week with 1.29475 and futures 2019-12, 6BZ19 with 1.3019.

Since English's choice of Brexit, sterling has been devaluated, due to the anxiety of British economy. And British Pound has been under downward trend line.

The dispute among English and administration has disappointed market participants. Boris Johnson, Premier since July spoke he didn't care even 'No Deal Brexit' and pound devalued more.

The agreement in the week gave the expectation of soft Brexit and led sterling up.

The pair GBP/USD broke through 20 moving average and 120 exponential moving average sequentially. Daily chart and four-hour chart showed rising price along upper band in Bollinger Bands. And sterling reached upper band and faced 120 exponential moving average in the weekly chart.

There may be the correction, but the trend seems upward. An news media reported sterling could reach 1.30 and was even able to 1.33 over if British parliament approved it citing analyst's comment. The opposition doesn't agree the draft yet, and it restrain the rising of sterling.

U.S. economy indices show U.S. economy is not always good. It can make Fed cut interest rate again. and devalue dollar.

As well as euro, sterling price seems to rise against U.S. dollar in short term.














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