[USDX] Dollar Index driven by External Factors 2019 0828

cf. [USDX] Recession Fear and Long Bias 2019 0826
cf. [USDX] Waiting for Jackson Hole Symposium 2019 0823


Dollar Index against major currencies basket is affected by external factors, not by dollar itself.

Dollar is driven by U.S.-China Trade Conflict directly.

The conflict extends to currency war.

As China announced the retaliatory tariffs last week, the expectation of negotiation again led the dollar recovery this week.

The U.S. bond yield leads dollar up and down.

As the 10-yr bond yield rises, greenback rises, too.

The U.S. CME research shows most of market participants expect U.S. benchmark interet rate cut.

The interest cut calls the currency weak and it is expected dollar down.

Another central banks try devaluing their currency.

ECB plans euro's devaluing with QE, interest cut.

Governor of the Bank of Finland spoke ECB more strong PACKAGE including QE and interest cut.

Draghi, ECB president hinted QE in September.

Dollar index recording 98.04 as of early Wednesday is tested as number one safe-haven asset.












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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[USDX] Recession Fear and Long Bias 2019 0826

Dollar Index four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [EUR] Rising Recession Risk 2019 0826
cf. [USDX] Waiting for Jackson Hole Symposium 2019 0823
cf. [GBP] Short Bias to Cable 2019 0820


Jackson Hole Symposium was paid attention by market participants and Jerome Powell, Chair of Federal Reserve was done, especially. Powell told that the problem was the trade war between United States and China, top two economies. He didn't mention about interest cut. Bloomberg, U.S. economy news agency reported that Fed told the trade war was the risk not interest rate.

And the U.S.-China trade tension extends. China announced on last Friday it would impose the retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods worth 75 billion dollars including crude oil and soybeans on September 1 and December 15, the same days, planned to impose the tariffs on Chinese export goods.

The experts analyse China gives up the negotiation with Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President and prepares prolonged trade war.

When Powell spoke at the meeting, dollar index, which measures greenback against basket of major currencies plunged to 97.60. Market's disappointment China's retaliatory tariffs lowered dollar index.

But greenback rises at beginning of the week, Monday. It rose to 97.98 as of 1300(UTC+0).

Market expects that Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate, 25bp(0.25 percent). Someone anticipates 50bp. Fed has not gone against market's expectation and it seems that the benchmark interest rate will be cut in mid September.

But euro is ready to be devalued, too.

Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland and member of Eurpean Central Bank, spoke that ECB prepares more strong 'package' to stimulate economy while the interview with Wall Street Journal on last Thursday. The package includes interest cut and Quantitative Easing.

Mario Draghi, ECB president, already spoke a new currency easing in September during the news conference in last month.

And dollar tends to move with American bond yield, recently. We need to watch U.S. bond yield as well as currency pairs, too.

Dollar Index daily chart has increased bottoms since this year. It seems that main trend of USDX is upward and we need to watch the market with long bias.











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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[EUR] Nguy cơ suy thoái gia tăng 2019 0826

xem [EUR] Tìm kiếm xu hướng, nhưng 2019 0813
xem [EUR] Mẫu V và Euro 2019 0805 1

Trước khi xem biểu đồ EUR / USD, một trong những cặp tiền tệ chính, chúng ta cần chú ý đến các vấn đề toàn cầu.

Căng thẳng thương mại Hoa Kỳ-Trung Quốc kéo dài. Trung Quốc hôm thứ Sáu tuyên bố sẽ áp thuế trả đũa đối với hàng hóa trị giá 75 tỷ đô la Mỹ bao gồm dầu thô và đậu nành vào ngày 1 tháng 9 và ngày 15 tháng 12, cùng ngày, dự định áp dụng thuế quan đối với hàng hóa xuất khẩu của Trung Quốc.

Các chuyên gia phân tích Trung Quốc từ bỏ cuộc đàm phán với Donald Trump, Tổng thống Hoa Kỳ thứ 45 và chuẩn bị chiến tranh thương mại kéo dài.

Sự căng thẳng leo thang giữa hai nền kinh tế hàng đầu gọi là nỗi sợ Suy thoái và khiến thị trường tài chính rơi vào tình trạng lo lắng. Và các nhà đầu tư cố gắng tránh rủi ro và mua tài sản trú ẩn an toàn, Yên Nhật và vàng.

Jerome Powell, Chủ tịch Cục Dự trữ Liên bang nói rằng cuộc chiến thương mại là rủi ro trong khi hội nghị chuyên đề của Jackson Hole và Bloomberg, hãng tin kinh tế Hoa Kỳ báo cáo rằng Fed nói rằng cuộc chiến thương mại là rủi ro không phải lãi suất.

Khi Powell phát biểu, cặp tiền tệ, EUR / USD đã tăng lên 1.1163 và di chuyển trên 1.1140s. Đồng đô la vốn được coi là tài sản trú ẩn an toàn, mất giá trị mặc dù nền kinh tế không chắc chắn và suy thoái kinh tế, nên tăng giá so với rổ tiền tệ euro, yên, bảng, v.v. Người ta cho rằng Fed có thể cắt giảm lãi suất, một người tham gia thị trường phân tích.

Nhưng cặp đôi đã hạ thấp đỉnh điểm kể từ cuối năm 2018, xu hướng chính là giảm. Xu hướng trong biểu đồ bốn giờ cho thấy giảm kể từ tháng Sáu. Euro đã tăng trở lại so với đồng đô la nhưng nó đã thất bại trong việc vượt qua ngưỡng kháng cự.

Mặc dù xu hướng chính là đi xuống, chúng ta nên chuẩn bị về sự hồi phục của nó lên 1,12s, dải trên của Dải bollinger và 120 đường trung bình theo cấp số nhân trong biểu đồ hàng ngày. Euro-FX, 6EU19 có thể tăng lên 1.1250 ~ 1.1300 trên thị trường tương lai.










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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Rising Recession Risk 2019 0826

cf. [EUR] Finding the Trend, yet 2019 0813
cf. [EUR] V Pattern and Euro 2019 0805 1

Before watching the chart of EUR/USD, one of the major currency pair, we need to pay attention to global issues.

The U.S.-China trade tension extends. China announced on last Friday it would impose the retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods worth 75 billion dollars including crude oil and soybeans on September 1 and December 15, the same days, planned to impose the tariffs on Chinese export goods.

The experts analyse China gives up the negotiation with Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President and prepares prolonged trade war.

The escalating tension between top two economies calls fear of Recession and puts financial markets into anxiety. And investors try avoiding the risk and buying the safe-haven asset, Japanese Yen and gold.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair told the trade war was the risk while Jackson Hole symposium, and Bloomberg, U.S. economy news agency reported that Fed told the trade war was the risk not interest rate.

When Powell spoke, the currency pair, EUR/USD surged to 1.1163 and moves upon 1.1140s. Dollar which has been regarded as safe-haven asset, loses its value though the uncertain economy and recession fear, it should gain against the currency basket of euro, yen, pound and so on. It is thought that Fed may cut interest rate, a market participant analyses.

But the pair has lowered its peaks since late 2018, main trend is downward. The trend in the four-hour chart shows downward since June. Euro rebounded against dollar but it failed to break through the resistance line.

Though the main trend is downward, we should prepare about its rebound to 1.12s, upper band of Bollinger Band and 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart. Euro-FX, 6EU19 can rise to 1.1250~1.1300 in CME, futures market.







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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[USDX] Waiting for Jackson Hole Symposium 2019 0823

cf. [GBP] Short Bias to Cable 2019 0820
cf. [USDX] Currency War 2019 0817
cf. [EUR] Finding the Trend, yet 2019 0813


Technical Analysis, to find pattern


Dollar Index, which measures greenback against basket of major currencies hits 98.34 as of 0600(UTC) recovered from 98.08 yesterday. It moves up and down in a channel having attention to Jackson Hole Symposium. The symposium is held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the United States till tomorrow. And Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell speaks on Today. Market participants are ready to listen Powell's speech and the explicit trend isn't made yet.

Market participants try to get a hint about U.S. benchmark interest rate from his speech. They watch how coincident is Fed's view on the market and market expectation. Powell told benchmark rate cut is made under the mid-term view. The Fed's minutes released on Wednesday showed members of FOMC thought, too.

Fed Chair calls market's attention whether he will speak more dovish comment. If he hints more rate cut, dollar index sinks.

Market anticipates FOMC will cut its benchmark interest rate again in September. Most expect 25bp(0.25 percent) and some expect more dovish stance, 50bp. Fed's interest cut lowers dollar index, greenback's value against major currencies.

But we need to know that another central banks as well as U.S. Fed try devalue their currencies.

Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland and member of Eurpean Central Bank, spoke that ECB prepares more strong 'package' to stimulate economy while the interview with Wall Street Journal on Thursday. The package includes interest-cut, more QE. He emphasized 'Overshooting' than 'Undershooting' while managing financial market and he added there are lots of economy risk such as global recession, U.S.-Sino trade war and England's hard Brexit.

Christine Lagarde, former IMF Managing Director and ECB president-nominee supports Europe's Quantitative Easing, and consider benchmark interest-cut, too. It's strongly expected to cut the rate in September.

Mario Draghi, ECB president, already spoke a new currency easing in September during the news conference in last month.

And dollar tends to move with American bond yield, now. If treasury bond yield is risen, greenback rises, too. I think this is temporary, of course.








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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[GBP] Short Bias to Cable 2019 0820

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Falling Pound 2019 0618
cf. [GBP] Triangle pattern and Brexit 2019 0412

English Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared Brexit on October 31. He has told England would exit EU though hard Brexit or no-deal Brexit. And he announced the freedom of residency and passage of EU citizens in England after Brexit. His planned policy has made Europeans including English panic.

As we have been informed, the main issue on British pound is Brexit. And Prime Minister Johnson's speak affects British Pound down.

Whether hard Brexit or soft Brexit, Pound seems to decide upward or downward after October 31. And pound continues loss of its value.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[USDX] Currency War 2019 0817

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [EUR] Finding the Trend, yet 2019 0813
cf. [EUR] V Pattern and Euro 2019 0805 1
cf. [USDX] Watching the Market in the Short Term  2019 0717


Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against basket of major six currencies dived making reverse-V pattern early August. It dropped from 98.94 on Aug. 1 to 97.21 on Aug. 6. And greenback stopped its falling and moved up and down in Bollinger Bands. Then it began to recover its price against major currencies basket.

Though external factors such as U.S.-Sino trade tension and currency conflict twist greenback, economy indices in the United States support dollar and dollar index.

The spread between 10-yr bond yield and 2-yr bond yield reversed, which made market participants to be in panic. It is ordinary that long-term bond's yield is higher than short-term's. Because long-term bond has more risk and pay more interest. Reversed spread between long-term bond and short-term's implies economy being in recession.

But an expert thinks that reversed spread doesn't hint recession but show recession being in progress. And he adds the worst economy situation may go pass. Because the yield of bonds is not reason but the result of current economy.

Anyway the reversed spread between 10-yr treasury bond's yield and 2-yr note's recovered on Friday.

U.S. Building Permits released on Friday recorded 1 million 340 thousands, which surpassed the market's expectation, 1 million 270 thousands. Good record in U.S. economy has supported greenback, and dollar index recorded 98.20 in this week.

Market anticipates FOMC will cut its benchmark interest rate again in next month. Most expect 25bp(0.25 percent) and some expect more dovish stance, 50bp. Fed's interest cut may lower dollar index, greenback's value against major currencies.

But we need to know that another central banks as well as U.S. Fed try devalue their currencies.

Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland and member of Eurpean Central Bank, spoke that ECB prepares more strong 'package' to stimulate economy while the interview with Wall Street Journal on Thursday. The package includes interest-cut, more QE. He emphasized 'Overshooting' than 'Undershooting' while managing financial market and he added there are lots of economy risk such as global recession, U.S.-Sino trade war and England's hard Brexit.

Christine Lagarde, former IMF Managing Director and ECB president-nominee supports Europe's Quantitative Easing, and consider benchmark interest-cut, too. It's strongly expected to cut the rate in September.

Mario Draghi, ECB president, already spoke a new currency easing in September during the news conference in last month.

Market analysts anticipate ECB will cut 10bp to -0.5 percent, resume QE program which was finished in last December, and buy bond of 50 billion euro per month.

Of course, these program lowers euro and raises dollar.

Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President, continuously puts the press on Fed Chair, Jerome Powell to cut the rate, too.

Central banks of major countries and economy block have begun currency war.

These move may boost dollar and dollar index will keep rising, Gjallarhorn think.

Whether getting Short or Long, we need to deal more carefully, the currency war is ready to begin.






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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[EUR] Finding the Trend, yet 2019 0813

cf. [EUR] V Pattern and Euro 2019 0805 1

One of the major Forex events, German ZEW Economic Sentiment recorded -44.1 on Tuesday. The previous index was -24.5 an the market expected -27.8. But the actual value was worse than expected one. It is bad news for euro but price of euro rose against dollar, today.

The candles with long tail or long head are shown in especially one-hour chart and four-hour chart in eur/usd, one of the major currency pair, these days. These candles are hardly seen in mid or long term euro chart.

The traditional move of eur/usd is to fall at the bad economy news and events. But euro has kept its rising after returning bottom band of Bollinger Bands. The price of the pair moves up and down in Bollinger Bands since last week. After the price rose, the price doesn't decide its trend.

The currency pair moves not by currency itself but by external factors.

First, U.S.-Sino trade war affects on currency pair. The war is between America and China but it is influential on Europe currency, too. And the negative news and analysis leads dollar down, whatever Forex events are. The tension between two countries grows to currency war. Market participants worry U.S. dollar and the price of Safe-haven currency and euro rise.

The political anxiety in Hong Kong supports the currencies' rising, too.

German 10-year bond's yields has recorded minus. It means if the bond is sold to the investor than the investor should pay commission not get interest. Though minus yield, investors find German bonds, now, because they worry recession in world economy.

The market participants anticipate Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate four times to zero interest rate. It may lower the price of dollar.

The external factors are negative against dollar.

But global recession makes Safe-haven asset up and dollar is safe-haven, too, though it falls against Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Euro. In global Financial Crisis in 2008, dollar was safety currency and surged against another currencies.

Europe Central Bank, ECB supported the refinacial rate of euro would be cut to minus and Quantitive Easing. It means euro down, dollar up.

The currency war between the United States and China expands to Europe.

Gjallarhorn recommends to ordinary traders just to watch the market carefully. It is very dangerous market now and the trading is recommended after the war. But you want to become explorer in currency-market sea, you may get a chance.




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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] V Pattern and Euro 2019 0805 1

The four-hour chart of currency pair, ‘EUR/USD’ has shown ‘V pattern’. It means the surging price of currency pair, and euro price has rocketed.

The sudden rising of price is due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweet of more tariffs being imposed on Chinese goods. His expected action may make worse the world economy, market think.

This ‘V pattern’ seems to succeed to make the pattern and trend-turning to upward, because the price of currency pair, ‘EUR/USD’ broke 1.1200 in futures market.

But we need to remind that ‘V pattern’ is less reliable than ‘double-bottoms pattern’ and ‘reverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern’. The price has enough possibility of falling in other words dollar long.

If we recall the price of euro recorded historical low since global finance crisis, weak dollar is supported again.

And we should know ECB, Europe Central Bank plans Quantitative Easing in the year.

The explicit trend of price is not shown yet.