cf. [EUR] V Pattern and Euro 2019 0805 1
One of the major Forex events, German ZEW Economic Sentiment recorded -44.1 on Tuesday. The previous index was -24.5 an the market expected -27.8. But the actual value was worse than expected one. It is bad news for euro but price of euro rose against dollar, today.
The candles with long tail or long head are shown in especially one-hour chart and four-hour chart in eur/usd, one of the major currency pair, these days. These candles are hardly seen in mid or long term euro chart.
The traditional move of eur/usd is to fall at the bad economy news and events. But euro has kept its rising after returning bottom band of Bollinger Bands. The price of the pair moves up and down in Bollinger Bands since last week. After the price rose, the price doesn't decide its trend.
The currency pair moves not by currency itself but by external factors.
First, U.S.-Sino trade war affects on currency pair. The war is between America and China but it is influential on Europe currency, too. And the negative news and analysis leads dollar down, whatever Forex events are. The tension between two countries grows to currency war. Market participants worry U.S. dollar and the price of Safe-haven currency and euro rise.
The political anxiety in Hong Kong supports the currencies' rising, too.
German 10-year bond's yields has recorded minus. It means if the bond is sold to the investor than the investor should pay commission not get interest. Though minus yield, investors find German bonds, now, because they worry recession in world economy.
The market participants anticipate Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate four times to zero interest rate. It may lower the price of dollar.
The external factors are negative against dollar.
But global recession makes Safe-haven asset up and dollar is safe-haven, too, though it falls against Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Euro. In global Financial Crisis in 2008, dollar was safety currency and surged against another currencies.
Europe Central Bank, ECB supported the refinacial rate of euro would be cut to minus and Quantitive Easing. It means euro down, dollar up.
The currency war between the United States and China expands to Europe.
Gjallarhorn recommends to ordinary traders just to watch the market carefully. It is very dangerous market now and the trading is recommended after the war. But you want to become explorer in currency-market sea, you may get a chance.
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