[EUR] Rising Recession Risk 2019 0826

cf. [EUR] Finding the Trend, yet 2019 0813
cf. [EUR] V Pattern and Euro 2019 0805 1

Before watching the chart of EUR/USD, one of the major currency pair, we need to pay attention to global issues.

The U.S.-China trade tension extends. China announced on last Friday it would impose the retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods worth 75 billion dollars including crude oil and soybeans on September 1 and December 15, the same days, planned to impose the tariffs on Chinese export goods.

The experts analyse China gives up the negotiation with Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President and prepares prolonged trade war.

The escalating tension between top two economies calls fear of Recession and puts financial markets into anxiety. And investors try avoiding the risk and buying the safe-haven asset, Japanese Yen and gold.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair told the trade war was the risk while Jackson Hole symposium, and Bloomberg, U.S. economy news agency reported that Fed told the trade war was the risk not interest rate.

When Powell spoke, the currency pair, EUR/USD surged to 1.1163 and moves upon 1.1140s. Dollar which has been regarded as safe-haven asset, loses its value though the uncertain economy and recession fear, it should gain against the currency basket of euro, yen, pound and so on. It is thought that Fed may cut interest rate, a market participant analyses.

But the pair has lowered its peaks since late 2018, main trend is downward. The trend in the four-hour chart shows downward since June. Euro rebounded against dollar but it failed to break through the resistance line.

Though the main trend is downward, we should prepare about its rebound to 1.12s, upper band of Bollinger Band and 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart. Euro-FX, 6EU19 can rise to 1.1250~1.1300 in CME, futures market.







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