[USDX] Waiting for Jackson Hole Symposium 2019 0823

cf. [GBP] Short Bias to Cable 2019 0820
cf. [USDX] Currency War 2019 0817
cf. [EUR] Finding the Trend, yet 2019 0813


Technical Analysis, to find pattern


Dollar Index, which measures greenback against basket of major currencies hits 98.34 as of 0600(UTC) recovered from 98.08 yesterday. It moves up and down in a channel having attention to Jackson Hole Symposium. The symposium is held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the United States till tomorrow. And Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell speaks on Today. Market participants are ready to listen Powell's speech and the explicit trend isn't made yet.

Market participants try to get a hint about U.S. benchmark interest rate from his speech. They watch how coincident is Fed's view on the market and market expectation. Powell told benchmark rate cut is made under the mid-term view. The Fed's minutes released on Wednesday showed members of FOMC thought, too.

Fed Chair calls market's attention whether he will speak more dovish comment. If he hints more rate cut, dollar index sinks.

Market anticipates FOMC will cut its benchmark interest rate again in September. Most expect 25bp(0.25 percent) and some expect more dovish stance, 50bp. Fed's interest cut lowers dollar index, greenback's value against major currencies.

But we need to know that another central banks as well as U.S. Fed try devalue their currencies.

Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland and member of Eurpean Central Bank, spoke that ECB prepares more strong 'package' to stimulate economy while the interview with Wall Street Journal on Thursday. The package includes interest-cut, more QE. He emphasized 'Overshooting' than 'Undershooting' while managing financial market and he added there are lots of economy risk such as global recession, U.S.-Sino trade war and England's hard Brexit.

Christine Lagarde, former IMF Managing Director and ECB president-nominee supports Europe's Quantitative Easing, and consider benchmark interest-cut, too. It's strongly expected to cut the rate in September.

Mario Draghi, ECB president, already spoke a new currency easing in September during the news conference in last month.

And dollar tends to move with American bond yield, now. If treasury bond yield is risen, greenback rises, too. I think this is temporary, of course.








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