Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise 2019 1230

EUR/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11174 on December 27, 2019. As this year goes end, the variation of the currency narrows.

Euro builds triangle pattern and it faces the right edge of triangle in the weekly chart. It shows that euro accumulates the momentum and will jump or plunge soon.

If it has rising momentum, it can rise to 1.1380s which is 120 exponential moving average at first.

The first-step agreement of U.S.-China Trade talks will be signed in next month, and it leads market participants to buy risky asset.

Euro rallies at the end of the year. Euro broke through 200 Moving Average and downward trend line since 2018. And it has reached upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. It may test breaking over 120 Exponential Moving Average. Euro surges over the trend line in Asian session at the end of the year.

U.S. news agency, Bloomberg reported analysts who answered the survey expected euro to rise more four percent against greenback. They guess euro will be supported by global economy recovery and political tension easing in the next year.

And traders are expected to buy euro, news medias report.

And ECB president Christine Lagarde has spoken she found the clues of the euro-zone-economy recovery in her first ECB meeting. She has had spoken QE before. As well as traders, economists think euro-zone economy will rebound in the next year.

But some participants think the trade war is not finished yet. There will be more difficult second and third round of trade talks and it is not certain the talks reach the agreement.

And there is another political variation, U.S. Presidential Election in the next year. Donald Trump, President is expected to win the election but there are still variations while the campaign.

In England, the Conservatives won  the parliament election and no-deal fear diminishes. But risk of hard Brexit disturbs the rising of GBP.

British PM, Boris Johnson confirmed the Brexit in January, 2020, but someone think it doesn't mean soft Brexit.
Hard Brexit as well as no deal may lower economy growth in Europe and euro, major currency in Europe is affected by Brexit risk, too.

Meanwhile we need to watch Chinese economy carefully in next year. Though U.S.-Sino Trade War ends its first round, the loan risk of Chinese corporations rises more an more.

The profit of government-controlled corporations decreased in 2019 due to the decline of infrastructure construction in China. These corporations reportedly have high debt level and depend on infrastructure construction.

The worse health of companies calls default.

This report is for Forex not Chinese equities. German economy as well as emerging markets depends on Chinese economy, and U.S.-Sino Trade War lowered the global trade and euro zone economy. We need to be interested in China, too. And China is one of big two economy entities.


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[EUR] Rising Euro 2019 1212

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Awating Two Big Events 2019 1210
cf. [EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

Euro surges after FOMC's benchmark-rate freeze. Currency pair EUR/USD broke through 1.1100 and exceeded 1.1130, and futures item, euro fx-201912, 6EZ19's price shows 1.11445.

Euro is expected to rise and face downward trend line. It seems to exceed the trend line, above 1.1150x.

But it doesn't mean to change the bias. Euro could rise over the downward trend line and upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart, and currency pair eur/usd reaches 120 exponential moving average, 1.135xx.

But it is possible to retreat after facing the meaningful prices.

After FOMC meeting, dollar index, greenback's value against the basket of major six currencies, dropped 0.35 percent to 97.087, lowest level since last July.

FOMC froze the Federal Funds Rate 1.5 percent~1.75 percent and Fed supported the freeze of the benchmark rate for a long time though President Donald Trump has pressed Jerome Powell, Fed Chair to lower the benchmark rate. And it led dollar index to dive more.

Most of market participants expected the rate freeze. Members of FOMC hinted that the benchmark rate would be frozen in the next year, too.

U.S. President Trump gave the notice of the tariffs on Chinese consumer goods on December 15, but Chinese officials forecast the delaying. The expectation of the deal is uncertain, and it presses currencies' volatility.

There are still Forex big events. British snap election and ECB meeting are hold on Thursday, respectively. Deadline of U.S-Sino trade deal comes on Sunday, too.

We need to keep in mind ECB's currency policy of Quantitative Easing in next year. And we should listen to some analysts' careful expectation of weak greenback in next year, too. There are U.S. President election, the possibility of top two economy entities' deal and rebound of euro zone economy.

European Central Bank is likely to keep benchmark interest rate.

And the new President Christine Lagarde is likely to stress the need for more efforts on the fiscal front.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position now. The position would be gotten in next year.

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[EUR] Awating Two Big Events 2019 1210

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10670 and futures item, Eurof FX-201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.10720 as of 02:17(UTC).

Euro moves in the triangle pattern and its volatility becomes small. Because greenback is under the mixed state as scheduled day of more U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods comes.

As the risk of the fail of U.S.-Sino trade talks has risen, dollar retreated. The deadline of the small deal is Sunday, December 15.

But expectation of the deal is uncertain, and it presses currencies' volatility.

And another big event is planned this week, FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee is hold. FOMC decide U.S. benchmark interest rate and the market expect it would be frozen, 1.75 percent.

It is known the dollar long position is increased. Though the trade war between economy top two, the U.S. economy is still better than another economy entities such as euro zone, and emerging markets.

We need to keep in mind ECB's currency policy of Quantitative Easing in next year. And we should listen to some analysts' careful expectation of weak greenback in next year, too. There are U.S. President election, the possibility of top two economy entities' deal and rebound of euro zone economy.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position now. The position would be gotten in next year.

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[EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

[EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

The currency of euro zone, euro rises in spot market as well as futures market. Futures, EURO-FX 201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.11005, 0.14 percent high and currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10939 as of 11:35(UTC).

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is likely to rise to 1.11617 or upper band of Bollinger Bands and the latest value of trend line. Euro succeeded to exceed 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart and we are able to expect more rising of euro. The first goal is the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart and it's 1.11617 as mentioned above.

And it is previous high and peaks of double-tops pattern in the daily chart.

But it isn't mean that euro has begun to rally. Euro zone economy is still bad and the United States' is not on the other hand.

Though dollar Index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies falls, it affects emerging markets' currencies not euro.

We need to still watch the euro with short bias in the long term.

Small deal of U.S-Sino trade talks affects greenback positively at this time. The expectation of the deal has raised dollar against Japanese yen and euro.

And we need to watch Friday's Non-farm payrolls, too. Market expects 186 thousands increasing, and 128 thousand payrolls increased in November report.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position on euro. Because book-closing is coming. The position will be gotten in next year.

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[EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is likely to break through 1.10238 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and 1.1039x or 120 Exponential Moving Average and trend line made in four-hour chart. Euro price is 1.10227 in EUR/USD and futures, euro-fx 201912 is 1.10325as of 13:26(UTC).

But its movement is expected to be done in a narrow channel ahead of FOMC meeting in next week.

Though Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Right Acts, top two economies which is under the trade war will sign the small deal of the trade talks soon, market participants expect. And this led New York stock market and the risky asset active.

New York equities recorded historical high in last week.

But long-term trend of euro is still downward, we need to watch the market with short bias.

If it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.


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[EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

The euro is likely to move to either side within a few weeks.

This is because the euro is moving between a narrowing resistance and support line. The movement of the euro is decreasing, which can be interpreted as the accumulation of energy.

But it seems strongly euro to fall after touching 1.1018, 120 exponential moving average in one-hour chart.

But long-term trend is still downward, we need to watch the market with short bias.

If it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.

Donald Trump, U.S. President signed the Hong Kong Human Right Act on Wednesday, and China has a big backlash. The small deal between economy top two is likely to be difficult.

Thus, the dollar will move with US Treasury yields, and the euro and euro-FX will move accordingly.

The currency pair EUR/USD is 1.1010 and futures, euro-FX 201912 is 1.10210 as of 04:09(UTC).


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[EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104

Euro fell on Monday but it tries to rebound. It is still under the downward trend but it can rise in short or mid term.

First, if it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.

There is another downtrend line, which falls to 1.2140. But I don't think euro rise above 1.21s in mid term. Because euro-zone economy doesn't show the optimistic outlook, yet.

As mentioned before, euro including currency pair EUR/USD and futures, euro-fx 201912 tries to form double-bottoms pattern, trend-turning-to-rise pattern.

There is a support line, too. Though euro falls, it is supported around 1.1097, I think.

Euro fell and dollar rose on Monday and dollar index was 98.308, 0.06 percent rise.

The expectation of U.S.-Sino small deal led greenback's rising.

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[EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124

EUR/USD weekly chart, source: FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104


U.S. dollar is under the influence of U.S.-Sino trade talks. As it seems not to be succeeded in this year, safe-haven asset gets momentum and greenback rises against other currencies except Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.

The uncertain view about small deal makes investors to hesitate to buy risky asset.

Euro zone economy still doesn't work well, and the growth of companies in euro zone are still at a standstill. It burdens euro and makes dollar to rise.

A Forex strategist at UBS said, the combination of U.S. economy and euro zone's led greenback's rising.

And analysts at Danske Banks, expect the euro to trade at low levels for an extended period considering the indication of the Federal Reserve that would be on hold for now and the resilience in EUR/USD to global news.

Danske Banks team think, the US economy remains on a stronger footing than the euro area economy, and in the euro area, the manufacturing sector is under pressure from weak global investment activity due to the trade war, Brexit and weak global growth.

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD was 1.1022 end of the last week according to FXStree.com and euro futures at CME, Euro-FX 201912 or 6EZ19 finished the week recording 1.10340.

USDX, dollar index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies rose 0.26 percent to 98.25.

In weekly chart, currency pair EUR/USD is still under the downward trend line. And it failed to break through middle band of Bollinger Bands.

But we can find that euro prepares the rebound carefully in weekly chart. The support line is made as well as the downward trend line, and it tries to build double-bottoms pattern, trend-changing pattern.

There are two main downward trend line made in the monthly chart and the weekly chart, respectively. And it is hard to guess trend-turning to upward trend but we may expect euro's rising in short term, one-hour and four-hour chart.


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[USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

[USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104

U.S. dollar is under the influence of U.S.-Sino trade talks. As it seems not to be succeeded in this year, safe-haven asset gets momentum and greenback rises against other currencies except Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.

The uncertain view about small deal makes investors to hesitate to buy risky asset.

And the Hong Kong issue affects Forex market, too. As tension between top 2 economy entities rises because of Hong Kong issue, greenback's price rises, too.

Hong Kong media,  the South China Morning Post reported, China watches Donald Trump’s response to US Hong Kong bill as it threatens to become new barrier to trade deal.

Euro zone economy still doesn't work well, it burdens euro and makes dollar to rise.

Number one economy entity in euro zone, German economy showed that. German Flash Manufacturing PMI recorded 43.8 higher than expected 42.9, but German Flash Services PMI hit 51.3 worse than expected 52.0 and previous 51.6.

It made greenback to rise high, and Dollar Index, greenback's price against six currencies' basket reached 98.4 and 98.0 as of 09:30(UTC).

In the technical analytic view, USDX in four-hour chart rises breaking through middle band and reaching upper band. It doesn't fall below middle band and upward trend line, and it seems to keep a upward trend.









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[EUR] 매도적 관점이 유효한 유로화 2019 1120

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [EUR] Falling Euro 2019 1113
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024


외환시장을 비롯한 글로벌 금융시장의 큰 관심사는 미중 무역협상 타결 여부일 것입니다.

지난 10월 미국과 중국 간의 1단계 무역분쟁 협상이 타결될 것이란 소식이 전해지면서 금융시장에는 훈풍이 불었습니다만, 타결 가능성 여부가 불투명해지면서 외환시장에서는 뚜렷한 방향을 아직 찾지 못하는 모습입니다.

미중 간 무역협상 타결 여부에 회의감이 투자자들 사이에 자리하면서, 미국 현지시각으로 18일, 달러는 주요통화에 대해 하락했습니다. 유로/달러 통화쌍은 현재 1.1077를 기록하고 있고, 유로화 선물 12월물은 1.10965에서 조정중입니다.

또 미국의 CNBC는 미국과 중국간의 무역협상이 비관적이라고 보도했는데, 중국 정부는 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 기존 관세의 철회에 대해 부인한 이후 미국과 무역합의에 대한 베이징의 분위기가 비관적이라고 보도했다고, 연합 인포맥스는 보도했습니다.

이는 당분간 안전자산으로서의 달러 수요를 부르기 보다는 달러에 부담을 줄 것으로 보입니다.

글로벌 금융위기가 닥쳤을 때 미국의 달러화는 안전자산으로서 폭발적인 수요를 불렀지만, 미중간 무역분쟁에서는 달러가 그 당사자가 되면서 협상 타결 가능성에 따라, 투자자들의 심리에 따라 등락을 거듭하는 실정입니다.

올해 들어 달러는 같은 재료를 놓고서 시장 참여자들의 당시 심리에 따라 정반대의 움직임을 보이고 있는 만큼 좀더 신중하게 시장을 바라볼 필요가 있겠습니다. 아울러 유로화는 달러에 대해 위험자산으로 분류되는 만큼 달러와 반대 움직임을 보인다는 점을 다시 한 번 상기해야겠습니다.

한편 지난 18일 트럼프 대통령과 미국 연방준비제도 의장 제롬 파월이 백악관에서 회동했다는 소식이 전해지면서 달러는 약세를 보였습니다. 파월 의장이 비둘기적 조치를 취하면서 금융시장이 상승세를 띨 것이라는 기대감 때문이었습니다.

트럼프 대통령은 트윗을 통해 "기본 금리, 마이너스 금리, 저 인플레이션, 완화, 달러 강세와 이것이 제조업에 미치는 영향, 중국·유럽연합(EU)과의 무역 등 모든 것을 논의했다"고 말했습니다.

하지만 단기적으로는 이런 뉴스들이 유로에 힘을 보태겠지만 장기적으로 유로존 경제가 살아나지 못하고 있어 유로화에 대한 매수 관점은 아직까진 유보할 필요가 있습니다.

단기적으로는 유로화가 달러에 대해 반등하겠지만, 기본 체력이 받쳐주지 못하는 만큼 유로는 여전히 하락 압력에서 자유롭지 못하기 때문입니다.

유로/달러 주간차트에서 유로화는 여전히 하락 추세선 아래에서 움직이고 있고 추세선 돌파 가능성도 아직 회의적입니다.

기술적인 면에서 볼 때 앞서 형성된 이중천장 패턴에 따른 가격 하락은 끝났고, 유로화는 새로운 추세를 모색하고 있습니다.

주간차트에서 하락추세선을 돌파하려는 움직임을 보이고 있지만, 단번에 추세선이 돌파되는 경우가 거의 없다는 점을 상기하면 유로화에는 매도적 시각이 여전히 유효합니다.

하지만 단기적으로는 상승 모멘텀이 살아있는 만큼 투자자 각자의 스타일에 따라 매매를 결정하시면 되겠습니다.

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[EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Falling Euro 2019 1113
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024

The skepticism about the small deal of U.S.-Sino trade war grew and the risky asset retreated on Thursday and Friday. And political issues in Hong Kong and Latin America led safe-haven asset such as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc up.

Yonhap Infomax reported a Forex strategy director said that negative situation in Hong Kong and Latin America's confusion moved the market negatively.

And disappointing economy score in emerging markets, Australia and Japan pressed investors sentiment.

U.S. Treasury yield continued to fall this week and dollar weakened. But greenback's price was higher than euro.

And some analysts show dollar-long outlook end of the year. When investors close the book, they may buy dollar because the U.S. interest rate is high relatively and U.S. economy is stronger than other economy entities, Younhap Infomax reported.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.10331 and futures, euro fx-201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.10535 as of as of 12:55(UTC), Friday. Euro tries to rebound but it is under downward trend line.

In daily chart and four-hour chart, double-tops pattern is still explicitly shown. This is a typical price-down pattern. And euro failed to break through the resistance line and downward trend line.

But euro tries to rebound and to turn the trend again. In one-hour chart, euro broke through 120 EMA and it reached upper band of Bollinger Band in four-hour chart. Euro in four-hour chart tries to reach 120 EMA, too.

We need to watch the chart carefully. Because euro rises technically but there is no explicit signal of soft landing of Europe economy yet.

And it is still valid to watch the market with short bias.

Gjallarhorn had a short position and it was liquidated.






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[EUR] Falling Euro 2019 1113

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024

Donald Trump, the U.S. President's address on Tuesday didn't satisfied market's need about the U.S.-Sino trade talks. After his speech, market participants prospects the trade talk carefully and it called safe-haven asset such as Japanese yen and greenback.

Dollar index, greenback's price against six-currencies basket rose 0.12 percent to 98.329. The uncertainty about the trade war lowered euro. Currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.1005 and futures in CME, euro FX-201912, 6EZ19 1.10260 as of 08:00(UTC)

In daily chart and four-hour chart, double-tops pattern is explicitly shown. This is a typical price-down pattern. And euro failed to break through the resistance line and downward trend line. And there isn't any trend-turning signal yet.

And it is vaild to watch the market with short bias.









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[USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109

Dollar Index four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030

The small deal of the U.S.-Sino trade war is not clear yet. Donald Trump, the U.S. President spoke nothing is agreed about tariff withdrawal and over-shooting from the expectation the agreement of small deal calmed down. As the first step of the agreement is not clear, market is cautious of risky asset such as emerging market's currencies.

And U.S. dollar fell against safe-haven asset Japanese yen, rose against euro.

A strategist of ACLS spoke, investors and traders bought greenback as trade war between top 2 economy entities seemed to be deteriorated and now buy dollar due to the expectation of trade-tension relaxation and the U.S. economy's soft landing.

Analysts at MUFG Bank see more gains ahead of the US dollar as stronger economic data highlights that fears over a sharp slowdown in the United States and recent weakness are overdone.

But dollar and dollar index, price of greenback against the basket of major six currencies will move up by restrained range, some economists analyse.

Younhap Infomax reported on Saturday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch(BofAML) expected optimism to dollar will disappear after all. Because trade tension will moderate and global economy rebound. BofAML is still optimistic about economy and they anticipate dollar down in next year.

Dollar Index, USDX is 98.37 at the end of week and keeps upward trend. Four-hour chart of dollar index rebounded at the bottom of 97.18. If it succeeds to rise, the double-bottom pattern is built. And it supports dollar index upward.

Greenback still appeals but we need to keep in mind rising economic optimism. The recovery of global economy means weak dollar and strong emerging market's currencies.








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[GBP] Correction or Trend turning? 2019 1106

GBP/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

EU President Jean Claude Juncker spoke England would leave EU on next January 31 and no more deal. English voted to Brexit in the referendum in 2016, but Brexit isn't yet. And the general election of England is hold on December 12.

Market has worried 'No Deal Brexit' but English Premier Boris Johnson lowered the risk of No-Deal. It supported sterling.

British benchmark interest rate, Official Bank Rate is release tomorrow. It is 0.75 percent and market participants expect it frozen.

Ahead of the meeting of Bank of England and the release of Official Bank Rate, Currency pair GBP/USD moves steady. It is 1.2876 as of 12:30(UTC).

But currency pair tries to build double-tops pattern in the daily chart. The pattern implies price falling. The price of pair rebounded since August and it's natural to think the correction.

GBP/USD has risen and faces 120 EMA(exponential moving average), which does as a resistance line. British pound tries to break through the resistance line but it doesn't succeed yet.

Easing no-deal Brexit risk supports sterling, but British economy is not as good as United States'. It seems that sterling will be corrected at 120 EMA.





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[USDX] 반등을 노리는 달러화 2019 1105

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

미-중 무역 갈등이 스몰 딜 타결로 새로운 국면을 맞이할 것으로 보이고, 영국 초미의 관심사인 노딜 브렉시트 가능성도 점차 낮아지고 있다. 미 연방준비제도 의장 제롬 파월은 당분간 기준금리 인하는 없을 것이라고 시사했다.

이러한 소식들로 달러는 혼잡 구간에 머물고 있으며, 6개 통화바스켓에 대한 달러의 가치를 나타내는 달러 인덱스는 4일 21시 현재 97.33을 가리키고 있다.

뚜렷한 방향성을 보이고 있지 않아 앞으로 달러 인덱스 향방에 대해 상승과 하락에 대한 의견이 갈리고 있는 형편이다.

지난 주에 발표된 미국의 비농업 분야 고용변화는 12만 8000명 증가를 보인데 비해 유로존의 경제상황은 여전히 암담한 실정이라 달러 가치는 상승하고 있다.

달러 인덱스의 4시간 차트에서 달러는 비농업 분야 고용변화 실적에 힘입어 단기 구간에서 저점인 97.18에서 반등했다. 반등에 성공해 상승세를 이어간다면 가격 반전 상승 패턴인 이중 바닥 패턴이 형성되고 달러 인덱스 추세가 우상향을 나타날 것임을 시사한다.

달러는 다른 통화에 비해 여전히 매력적이다.







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[USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

U.S.-Sino trade war seems to shift by signing the small deal agreement, and no-deal Brexit risk lowered. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested there wouldn't be more benchmark-interest-rate cut for a while.

These news put dollar in mixed state. Dollar Index, dollar price against the basket composed of six currencies is 97.33 13:00(UTC).

An analyst predicts greenback or dollar index slides step by step. Another expects the rebound of dollar index.

Non-farm Payroll released in last week surprised investors with 128-thousand increasing, but euro-zone economy is still in hard landing. Greenback gains.

Four-hour chart of dollar index rebounds at the bottom of 97.18. If it succeeds to rise, the double-bottom pattern is built. And it supports dollar index upward.

Greenback still appeals.







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[EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

Non-farm Payroll released on Friday hit 128-thousand increasing higher than expected 90-thousand increasing. It led New York stock market up and Treasury note down, and greenback was in mixed.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD fell a bit due to positive Non-farm payroll. Non-farm payroll showed U.S. economy is still good comparing euro zone and devalued euro.

Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC cut the benchmark interest rate 25bp and Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke there wouldn't be rate cut for a while, and currency goods of USDX, currency pair, futures and etc. fell against other currencies.

Mixed economy prospect put greenback in steady. USDX, dollar index hits 97.21, currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11634 and euro FX-2019 12 or 6EZ19 is 1.11965 at the end of last week.

Goldilocks in U.S. shows its termination with bad economy indices step by step. Advance GDP in third quarter hit 1.9 percent below 2.0 percent. But other economy equities have worse record than the United Sates. One of G2, China loses economy energy scoring 6.0 percent of GDP in third quarter historical low in 27 years. Euro zone is still under 1.0s percent GDP growth.

Greenback still appeals.

Currency pair EUR/USD faces the long-term downward trend line which began one year ago. The trend line seems to be a resistance line and will be broken through at one go. There will be several tries of exceeding the resistance line though euro rises.

Four-hour chart of the currency pair attempts to build the double-tops pattern which implies price down.

Positive U.S. economy and euro zone preparing Quantitative Easing support strong dollar and euro which facing the resistance line will fall.








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[USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030

cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021
cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011

Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC is hold and release the benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, and currency goods of USDX, currency pair, futures and etc. await FOMC's release moving steady.

USDX, dollar index hits 97.72, currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11105 and euro FX-2019 12 or 6EZ19 is 1.11460 as of 14:15(UTC).

Market participants expect Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate 25bp(0.25 percent) to 1.50~1.75 percent, interest rate band. It means U.S. Dollar falls down.

But market watches Federal Chair's mouth rather than interest rate. Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Fedwatch anticipates Fed's rate-cut with 97 percent, news medias already reported.Though Fed cuts the rate, Fed chair Jerome Powell's hint of the end of rate-cut cycle gives strong momentum to greenback and dollar index, USDX may keep its upward trend in long term

And growing risk of global recession calls safe-haven asset including USD, it raise the price of USD.

Goldilocks in U.S. shows its termination with bad economy indices step by step. Advance GDP in third quarter hit 1.9 percent below 2.0 percent. It makes USD down but global economy is worse.

If Fed cut the interest rate, it is 1.50~1.75 percent higher than euro's one, zero percent. Greenback still has energy of rising.





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[EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021
cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

British parliament's vote on Brexit agreement affects euro as well as pound. The decision of vote delaying devaluated euro and the expectation of soft Brexit made them up.

Brexit on time, October 31 doesn't seem to enforce but market participants guess soft Brexit in extended time, and it led euro and sterling on Wednesday. Market participants expect European Union, EU will approve British ask of extension Brexit, and England Prime Minister Boris Johnson is known to be going to hold general election ahead of Christmas.

In any cases, the possibility of No-deal Brexit goes low.

European Central Bank, ECB holds the meeting and decides euro interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate today. This is last meeting held Mario Draghi, ECB president and it seems to freeze the rate at this meeting.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy which has been under Goldilocks seems to enter the recession step by step, too. It devalues dollar. And market participants expect the additional U.S. interest rate cut in the month then dollar falls after Fed's decision.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.11337 and euro fx-2019 12, 6EZ19 records 1.11715 as of 05:46(UTC).

Rising euro since last Tuesday is under the correction. And it tries making Head-and-Shoulders pattern in four-hour chart. If the price falls, 120 Exponential Moving Average, some 1.1060 in four-hour chart may support it. There is possibility of falling to 1.10, too.

An analyst said his view of weak euro to Dow-Jones, because bond spreads between euro zone and Europe countries go narrow more and there is little momentum of euro's rebounding.

The price of pair is under the main downward trend line. EUR/USD has a certain reason of rising for trying breaking through trend line as a resistance line.









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[EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

Brexit issue raised the price of British pound and euro. The fear of No-deal Brexit has discounted Europe currencies, especially British pound. And euro has been affected, too. The agreement in last week gave the traders the expectation of soft Brexit and the uncertainty removal.

But British parliament delayed the agreement and called another extension of dead line. It made Europe currencies are in the correction.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy which has been under Goldilocks seems to enter the recession step by step, too. It devalues dollar. And market participants expect the additional U.S. interest rate cut in the month then dollar falls after Fed's decision.

Currency pair EUR/USD continued rising after Brexit draft agreement and is under the correction. It is 1.1153 as of 13:49(UTC), and euro fx-201912 or 6EZ19 hits 1.11965, 0.16 percent down, 13:50(UTC), now.

The daily chart of currency pair shows the price rises along upper band of Bollinger Bands and has broken through 120 exponential moving average and faces main downward trend line, and the price rose on middle band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. The price may test breaking through the trend line and powerful resistance line though Brexit dispute. If it succeeds, euro can reach 1.1300s.

There may be the correction, but the trend seems upward. An news media reported sterling could reach 1.30 and was even able to 1.33 over if British parliament approved it citing analyst's comment. The opposition doesn't agree the draft yet, and it restrain the rising of sterling.

















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[GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The agreement of Brexit draft supported sterling. Price of currency pair GBP/USD and futures, 6BZ19 rose, and currency pair ended this week with 1.29475 and futures 2019-12, 6BZ19 with 1.3019.

Since English's choice of Brexit, sterling has been devaluated, due to the anxiety of British economy. And British Pound has been under downward trend line.

The dispute among English and administration has disappointed market participants. Boris Johnson, Premier since July spoke he didn't care even 'No Deal Brexit' and pound devalued more.

The agreement in the week gave the expectation of soft Brexit and led sterling up.

The pair GBP/USD broke through 20 moving average and 120 exponential moving average sequentially. Daily chart and four-hour chart showed rising price along upper band in Bollinger Bands. And sterling reached upper band and faced 120 exponential moving average in the weekly chart.

There may be the correction, but the trend seems upward. An news media reported sterling could reach 1.30 and was even able to 1.33 over if British parliament approved it citing analyst's comment. The opposition doesn't agree the draft yet, and it restrain the rising of sterling.

U.S. economy indices show U.S. economy is not always good. It can make Fed cut interest rate again. and devalue dollar.

As well as euro, sterling price seems to rise against U.S. dollar in short term.














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[EUR] 유로화 하락추세선 돌파 2019 1015

cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

지난주 열린 미중 무역협상에서 부분적 합의 이른바 스몰 딜이 이뤄진 것으로 알려지면서 미 증시를 비롯한 위험자산 가치가 크게 상승했습니다.

미국과 중국은 통화협정에 합의했으며, 미국은 오는 15일로 예정됐던 관세율 인상을 연기했습니다. 하지만 이번 협상에서 합의문은 만들지 않았고, 대신 다음달 16, 17일 칠레에서 열리는 아시아·태평양경제협력제, 에이펙 정상회의 때 트럼프 대통령과 시진핑 중국 국가주석이 만나 합의문에 서명키로 했습니다.

스몰 딜 소식이 알려지자 뉴욕 증시는 다우지수가 1.21 퍼센트 상승했습니다. 다우지수는 한 때 517포인트까지 급등했으나, 합의문에 서명하지는 않았다는 소식이 알려지면서 상승폭이 감소해 319.92포인트 상승에 만족해야 했습니다.

지난 금요일 통화쌍인 유로 달러는 1.10619, 유로화 선물은 1.11115를 기록하고 월요일 현재 조정중입니다.

하지만 미중 무역협상의 완전 타결까지는 넘어야 할 산이 많다는 게 지배적인 시각입니다. 완전한 타결이 이뤄질 때까지 각국 통화는 뚜렷한 방향성을 찾치 못한 채 등락을 거듭할 것으로 보입니다.

유로 달러 통화쌍은 지난 6월 하순부터 형성된 하락추세선을 돌파하고 상승을 이어간 다음 이번 주 조정을 겪고 있는데요, 조정 후 상승랠리를 펼칠 지 아니면 추세선 아래로 가격이 하락하면서 기존의 하락추세를 이어갈지는 좀더 지켜봐야겠습니다.

그런데 내년부터 세계경제는 침체에 빠질 것이란 경고가 쏟아져 나오는 있는 가운데, 아직까지 견고한 미국 경제도 내년에는 성장이 둔화돼도 이상할 게 하나도 없다는 전망이 잇따르고 있다는 점을 눈여겨볼 필요가 있습니다.

실물경제가 나빠지면 투자자금은 대개 수익률이 낮더라도 안전자산으로 몰려들고 있는데, 미국 달러와 일본 엔화는 안전자산으로 평가받고 있습니다.

따라서 유로화의 대추세에 대해선 좀 더 지켜볼 필요가 있겠습니다.
















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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1013

EUR/USD, four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

The expectation of U.S.-China trade talks in Washington D.C. supported the risk asset and one of the major currency pair EUR/USD and  Euro FX, futures of euro.

The currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.10145 and Euro FX-201912, 6EZ19 hits 1.10640 as of 04:23(UTC).

Donald Trump, U.S. President told he would meet Liu He, China vice premier in White House on Friday and it made market participants watch market in an optimistic mood.

But the conclusion of the top-level U.S.-China talks is not certain yet because the talks doesn't reach any agreement. Nothing is clear.

If top two economies get any agreement, it will boost risk asset and euro rises.

After FOMC meeting minutes was released on Wednesday, euro began to rise and succeeded to broke trough downward trend line in four-hour chart. The positive economy news and the expectation of Fed's interest-cut in the late month leads euro.

In technical view, euro seems to keep rising. It can rise over 1.1124, 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart and 1.1235, downward trend line made in daily and weekly chart.

Before it reaches the resistance line and downward trend line, we need to watch whether it breaks through previous resistance price band and upper band of bollinger band, 1.1079 in the daily chart. If it fail, short bias to euro is still available.

















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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

cf. [EUR] Recession risk and bullish dollar 2019 1003
cf. [EUR] Downward Trend Line still Valid 2019 0926


ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday was released 47.8 which was 49.1 previous month and was forecasted 50.1 better than previous value. It is recorded low in ten years. ISM non-Manufacturing PMI was worse, too. It was released 52.6 on Thursday, which was predicted 55.1.

Non-farm employment change disappointed traders, too. Employee in non-farm sector increased 136 thousands, which was expected 145 thousands.

It can lowers greenback price enough, but its falling was restrained. The unemployment rate hit 3.5 percent, the historical low in fifty years.

There are signals of recession in the United States, but U.S. economy hints it's still good than euro zone economy.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD rebounded the bottom in some two years, but worse economy than that of the United States leads investors prefer greenback.

Though Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate 25bp to 1.75 percent, it is higher than euro's. The main refinancing rate in euro zone or benchmark rate is zero percent and deposit interest rate is negative. ECB announced Quantitative Easing program as well as interest cut, soon.

And the US-China trade conflict and US tariff implications have had a negative impact on the euro.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Friday that U.S. economy is still good and didn't hint about additional rate cut.

Technically, price of the currency pair didn't face the downward trend line yet. For euro's rising, the trend line should be tested whether is broken through or not, and it will not be broken at one time.

Therefore EUR/USD pair has more possibility of falling.

The price of the currency pair was 1.09760 at the end of the week and Euro FX-201912, or 6EZ19 was 1.10335.















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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Recession risk and bullish dollar 2019 1003

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Downward Trend Line still Valid 2019 0926


ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday made market participants to worry about U.S. manufacturing industry. It recorded 47.8 which was 49.1 previous month and was forecasted 50.1 better than previous value. It is recorded low in ten years.

Employment sector released on Wednesday did, too. It was 135 thousands, five thousands less than market consensus  and it was 157 thousands in previous.

The disappointed market sold greenback and bought euro and currency pair EUR/USD rose in two days. EUR/USD broke through 1.09 and 1.0950 in order. It is 1.09494 as of 06:45(UTC).

And Euro FX-201912 or 6EZ19 is recording 1.10050 after 1.10207 as of 06:45(UTC).

Market experts think U.S-China trade conflict begin to affect to U.S. manufacturing.

But as global economy go worse, U.S. dollar rises. Because the possible global economy recession risk makes market participants to buy greenback and other safe-haven asset.Though U.S. economy worries the recession risk, greenback gets traders' long positions. Euro zone economy is worse than U.S. economy.  It seems to be still valid that we have bullish bias on greenback.

One of the powerful Forex events is released on Friday. Non-farm payroll is expected to be 140 thousands and 130 thousands in previous month. We need to note the difference between actual value and expected value. If the real payroll is smaller than expected one, greenback plunges and euro surges.

And we need to just watch the market without deal till non-farm payroll is released on Friday.

Though euro price against dollar rose, it is under the downward trend line yet. After it fell to the bottom in two years, It rises gradually this week, but it should be tested at the downward trend lines since one-year ago and late June in this year.

The price of pair crossed 120 exponential moving average in one-hour chart but under the line in four-hour chart yet. In four-hour chart, if it exceeds 120 exponential moving average line, it has more possibility of correction or turning-down again.













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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[JPY] 안전자산으로의 엔화 2019 0930

cf. [JPY] Hovering in Bollinger Bands 2019 0928


최근 들어 일본 엔화는 스위스 프랑화와 함께 미 달러보다도 더 안전한 자산으로 평가받고 있습니다. 그 동안 미국 달러화가 금과 함께 최고의 안전자산으로 여겨지던 것을 감안하면 상당한 변화라 할 수 있습니다.

미국의 트럼프 행정부 출범 이후 계속된 미국과 중국간의 무역갈등은 일본 엔화에 대한 수요를 불렀습니다.

미중 무역협상 전망이 부정적으로 나올 때마다 달러 가치는 하락하고 엔화 환율은 주요국 통화에 대해  상승했습니다.

반대로 글로벌 경제 전망이 조금이라도 희망적으로 보이면 달러 가치는 상승하고 엔화 환율은 하락한 게 올해 들어 외환시장에서 나타난 흐름입니다.

앞으로 R의 공포, 바로 경기침체 경고가 잇따르는 가운데 안전자산 수요가 늘어날 것으로 전망되는데, 무작정 엔화를 매입하는 것에 대해선 신중한 태도를 가질 필요가 있겠습니다.

엔화가 안전자산으로 평가받고 있더라도 일본이라는 국가 역시 여러 리스크를 갖고 있기 때문입니다.

잃어버린 20년이라는 말에서 알 수 있듯이, 디플레이션은 일본의 고질적인 문제입니다. 지난 1985년 플라자 합의 이후 계속된 엔화 평가절상과 아울러 발생한 디플레이션은 지금까지도 일본 경제 성장에서 걸림돌로 작용하고 있습니다.

안전자산 선호 흐름에 따라 엔화에 대한 수요가 늘고, 엔화 가치 역시 상승하는 것은, 반대로 일본제품 수출에 불리하게 적용하는데 수출 가격이 상승하기 때문입니다. 같은 품질이라면 조금 더 저렴한 제품에 손이 가는 건 자연스러운 경제활동입니다.

미중 무역갈등처럼 올 하반기부터 시작된 한일 갈등도 일본 경제에 악영향을 미치고 있습니다. 특히 관광산업과 반도체 소재산업은 한일 갈등의 직접적인 타격을 받고 있는 형편입니다.

주요 통화쌍 가운데 하나인 달러 엔은 주간 차트를 기준으로 지난 2016년이래 볼린저 밴드 안에서 오르내리고 있습니다.

앞으로도 달러 엔 통화쌍은 주간 차트와 일간 차트에서는 볼린저 밴드 안에서 움직일 것으로 보입니다. 거래시 어떤 시간대 차트를 주거래 차트로 사용하느냐에 따라 매수와 매도 전략을 선택적으로 사용할 필요가 있겠습니다.








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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, JPY, yen, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 엔화

[JPY] Hovering in Bollinger Bands 2019 0928

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Japanese Yen(JPY) is evaluated as Safe-haven asset with Swiss Franc, CHF JPY than U.S. dollar these days. It is considerable change because greenback was one-top safe-haven asset before.

Since Trump administration, U.S.-China Trade Conflict has called Japanese Yen. When the talks between top two economies seems gloomy, Yen surges against  other currencies including dollar. If the view on global economy is optimistic, yen retreats.

Yen has the seat of safe-haven but Japan has its own risk like others, too.

Deflation in Japan economy is still problem. More twenty-years long deflation has grabbed Japanese economy growth.

And growing yen price hinders export. It's natural that consumers loves cheaper goods in same quality.

Korea-Japan conflict like U.S.-Sino's hinders Japan industries, too. Media reports Tourism and materials industry are affected by the conflict, directly.

One of the major currencies, USD/JPY has moved up and down in Bollinger Bands, since 2016 in which the pair rose along upper band of Bollinger Bands in weekly chart. It seems to hover in the band, in daily chart and weekly chart.






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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, JPY, yen, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 엔화

[EUR] Downward Trend Line still Valid 2019 0926

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Long or Short 2019 0923
cf. [EUR] After FOMC 2019 0919
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910

An external factor was added to forex market. U.S. House of Representatives prepares to impeach U.S. President, Donald Trump. But the possibility of the impeachment is regarded low, U.S. dollar and Dollar index are rose on Wednesday.

Market participants believe that even if US-China trade conflicts hinder US economic growth, they are better than the global economy.

And the possible global economy recession risk makes market participants to buy greenback and other safe-haven asset. It seems to be still valid we have bullish bias on greenback.

In addition, the hawkish rate-cut supports strong greenback. One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD fell though interest rate of U.S. dollar was cut, and there is still downward trend in the chart.

Currency pair, EUR/USD succeeded to rebound in Asian session on Thursday. Euro tried to make trend shift pattern, 'Double-bottoms' pattern in the one-hour chart. The pattern is made in Euro session and America session, too. It may succeed to build the pattern and the price of currency pair EUR/USD will rise.

But before get long bias on euro, we need to watch carefully the pattern and trend. The price of pair can fall again after the price fails to break through upper band of Bollinger Bands.

In four-hour chart, EUR/USD sinks along the channel between middle band and bottom band.

All downward trend lines are still available and Short bias on EUR/USD is valid, I think.

Gjallarhorn got a short position of micro euro-fx, M6EZ19. As the short position was gotten, the price of euro succeeded to rebound. And the position records loss, now.












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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Long or Short 2019 0923

cf. [EUR] After FOMC 2019 0919
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910


Federal Reserve cut Federal Funds Rate 25bp, or 0.25 percent to interest rate range 1.75~2.00 percent on last Wednesday. It was coincided with market expectation. But market thought of Fed's view on the market as hawkish view. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't hint more rate cut and market participants anticipate the rate freeze till next year.

The hawkish rate-cut supports strong greenback. One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD fell though interest rate of U.S. dollar was cut, and there is still downward trend in the chart.

Currency pair, EUR/USD rebounded in Asian session, Monday after it plunged last week. But before get long position of the pair, we need to watch German Ifo Business Climate released on Tuesday. Market expectation is 94.5 and it was 94.3 before. The worse release of Ifo Biz Climate than expectation may lower euro.

But German economy is under pessimistic view, because Trump's America first policy hinders China economy and German's.

The possible recession in Germany will hinder euro, and lead dollar long, euro short.

Though euro will succeed to rebound, traders need to watch the chart more carefully. We need to watch whether the price of pair breaks through 20 Moving Average or middle band of Bollinger Bands. If you watch more carefully, upper band of Bollinger Bands is needed. Because though the pattern, for example double-bottoms pattern, is made, it may fail to build the upward trend.









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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] After FOMC 2019 0919

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910

FOMC meeting result was not different with market's expectation. Federal Reserve cut Federal Funds Rate 25bp, or 0.25 percent to 1.75~2.00 percent on Wednesday.

The cut of benchmark interest rate usually lowers its currency price. And possible US dollar and dollar index's fall is not abnormal. But market moved dollar long because Fed didn't hint at the additional cut. It seems to freeze the interest rate till next year, but some members want more rate cut in the year.

Market analysts think Fed will freeze the benchmark interest rate and looks global economy positively. No more interest rate cut in the year may still lead strong greenback, market wants more dovish action of Fed.

And the indicate about Germany, German ZEW Economic Sentiment was -22.5. But the expectation was -38.0 and improved index led euro to rise.

The downward trend line in eur/usd daily chart and four-hour chart is still valid, and it support long dollar and short euro with Fed's statement.

In short term, currency pair eur/usd can rise till the trend line or upper band of Bollinger Bands, 1.1061~1.1070.

The Short position of micro Euro-FX or M6EZ19 which I have held, was liquidated on Tuesday, because euro rose. Whether it was closed with profit or loss, it meant that my short bias was wrong in short term.







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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910

European Central Bank froze Main Refinancing Rate to 0.0 percent last Thursday. The market expected the rate might be cut to negative 0.1 percent but only the deposit rate was cut to -0.5 percent.

And ECB lowered GDP in euro zone, this year and planned to begin Quantitative Easing program again from November.

As ECB froze the benchmark interest rate, currency pair EUR/USD dived to 1.0926 the lowest level in two years but it succeeded to rebound making 'V pattern'. The news of Top two economies' resuming trade talk supported risky asset.

It is reported that Germany, Number one economy entity in Europe planned the Shadow budget to invest in infrastructure and preventing climate change, and it raised euro, relatively risk asset.

It rose to 1.1106 and retreats below 1.1100 in Asian session, Monday.

FOMC meeting is hold this week. Market participants anticipate Fed will cut Federal Funds Rate, 25bp to 2.0~1.75 percent band.

The positive expectation of small deal in the trade tension and anticipated benchmark interest cut may lower dollar and support euro. But pessimistic outlook on euro economy and the attack to petroleum refinement facilities in Saudi Arabia may restrain euro.

The downward trend line since third quarter in 2018 is still available and resists against euro's rising. And the expected Fed's interest cut doesn't boost euro sufficiently.

And it seems that euro hovers in Bollinger Bands.

Gjallarhorn has Short position of micro Euro-FX or M6EZ19. When the position was gotten, I thought ECB's decision would lead euro down. The position records loss now, but the short position will be hold for a while.










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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] ECB and Fed 2019 0910

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

One of the currency pairs, EUR/USD rose 0.22 percent yesterday. It is reported that Germany, Number one economy entity in Europe planned the Shadow budget to invest in infrastructure and preventing climate change, and it raised euro, relatively risk asset. And the German exports in July increased 0.7 percent MoM, which was expected negative growth.

The positive signal between top 2 economy countries the United States and China under the trade war helped euro, too. The trade negotiation is planned to resume in next month and Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary denied recession being visible in the United States and anticipated the U.S. economy growth in the year while the interview with Fox Business on Monday.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair hinted the additional benchmark interest rate cut on next Wednesday. The market expects 25bp or 0.25 percent interest cut in FOMC meeting.

But these news didn't raise euro sufficiently, ECB is believed to cut benchmark-interest cut and continue Quantitative Easing.

Bloomberg reported economists survey that European Central Bank led by Mario Draghi may cut Main Refinancing Rate to -0.1 percent on Thursday. It is zero percent, now. And they expect ECB resume Asset Buying again to boost Europe economy.

GDP in euro zone, 2nd quarter recorded 0.2 percent growth, it was 0.4 percent in first quarter.

Governor of the Bank of Finland already claimed more strong package including QE and interest cut last month.

The pair is 1.1044 in Asian session, now. Euro FX September(6EU19) records 1.10495 in Asian session, too. It is expired in the week. 6EZ19(December) price is 1.11245. It moves in narrow channel.

The daily chart and the four-hour chart keep downward trend. When euro rose due to good economy news, it failed to break through 120 EMA and change the trend in four-hour chart. It tests to break through 120 EMA and resistance line again but it is not sure to succeed yet.

It seem to move up and down in the Bollinger Band till ECB spoke benchmark rate on Thursday. And we need to watch FOMC meeting next week, too.








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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[USDX] Dollar Index driven by External Factors 2019 0828

cf. [USDX] Recession Fear and Long Bias 2019 0826
cf. [USDX] Waiting for Jackson Hole Symposium 2019 0823


Dollar Index against major currencies basket is affected by external factors, not by dollar itself.

Dollar is driven by U.S.-China Trade Conflict directly.

The conflict extends to currency war.

As China announced the retaliatory tariffs last week, the expectation of negotiation again led the dollar recovery this week.

The U.S. bond yield leads dollar up and down.

As the 10-yr bond yield rises, greenback rises, too.

The U.S. CME research shows most of market participants expect U.S. benchmark interet rate cut.

The interest cut calls the currency weak and it is expected dollar down.

Another central banks try devaluing their currency.

ECB plans euro's devaluing with QE, interest cut.

Governor of the Bank of Finland spoke ECB more strong PACKAGE including QE and interest cut.

Draghi, ECB president hinted QE in September.

Dollar index recording 98.04 as of early Wednesday is tested as number one safe-haven asset.












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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[USDX] Recession Fear and Long Bias 2019 0826

Dollar Index four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [EUR] Rising Recession Risk 2019 0826
cf. [USDX] Waiting for Jackson Hole Symposium 2019 0823
cf. [GBP] Short Bias to Cable 2019 0820


Jackson Hole Symposium was paid attention by market participants and Jerome Powell, Chair of Federal Reserve was done, especially. Powell told that the problem was the trade war between United States and China, top two economies. He didn't mention about interest cut. Bloomberg, U.S. economy news agency reported that Fed told the trade war was the risk not interest rate.

And the U.S.-China trade tension extends. China announced on last Friday it would impose the retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods worth 75 billion dollars including crude oil and soybeans on September 1 and December 15, the same days, planned to impose the tariffs on Chinese export goods.

The experts analyse China gives up the negotiation with Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President and prepares prolonged trade war.

When Powell spoke at the meeting, dollar index, which measures greenback against basket of major currencies plunged to 97.60. Market's disappointment China's retaliatory tariffs lowered dollar index.

But greenback rises at beginning of the week, Monday. It rose to 97.98 as of 1300(UTC+0).

Market expects that Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate, 25bp(0.25 percent). Someone anticipates 50bp. Fed has not gone against market's expectation and it seems that the benchmark interest rate will be cut in mid September.

But euro is ready to be devalued, too.

Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland and member of Eurpean Central Bank, spoke that ECB prepares more strong 'package' to stimulate economy while the interview with Wall Street Journal on last Thursday. The package includes interest cut and Quantitative Easing.

Mario Draghi, ECB president, already spoke a new currency easing in September during the news conference in last month.

And dollar tends to move with American bond yield, recently. We need to watch U.S. bond yield as well as currency pairs, too.

Dollar Index daily chart has increased bottoms since this year. It seems that main trend of USDX is upward and we need to watch the market with long bias.











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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스