Trend Stronger than News?

EUR/USD H1 chart, source:forexfactory.com

H4 chart, source:forexfactory.com

 Ifo Business Climate, announced in late months is one of the powerful economic gauge on Euro. Ifo's index on 25th recorded 107.3 worse than expected 108.5. It means Euro's plunge empirically.

But Euro's movement was different than previous that. As the gauge was announced, the price fell some 4 pips. Then the EUR/USD pair rebounded soon, and it plummeted to 1.0808. It rebounded again. It fell just 18 pips from the time of the announcement.

Euro moved back for a while due to the bad news but it kept the bullish trend. And it showed another feature about powerful gauge Ifo's Biz Climates.

M5 chart, source:forexfactory.com

Though the incline has been modified, long trend is available as ever. Long bias is available if the negative effect by the news are watched. Modified incline may be adjusted again, then the pair has the possibility of being in the trap of the box.

Strong Euro to USD is made by the more Quantity Ease in Europe. Europe Central Bank, ECB has kept the interest rate 0.05 percent though U.S. Fed rose the rate, and the economic climate is not better than that in the United States.

More QE and currency war among the advanced countries are planned, and it makes the investors conservative to the market.

Desire to Rally: EURO

EUR/USD H4 CHART, source:forexfactory.com

EUR/USD H1 CHART, source: forexfactory.com

EUR/USD monthly chart, source:forexfactory.com

Euro plunged against US Dollar about one big on Thursday, and it seems that the announcement of US unemployment claims have made it.

The US unemployment claims recorded 293,000 which was worse than expected of 279,000. The previous gauge was 283 thousands.

This index has made market participants watch the global economy worse and the desire for the safety asset higher, I think.

And the oil price which was in the downward rallied now.

We need to watch the monthly chart of EUR/USD pair closely. The chart has showed that the price of Euro against USD has been lowered and the peaks have lowered gradually since 2008. But from the last year, the price attempted to rebound making the double-bottoms pattern.

Though Euro has fallen to rally last year, it is making the rally pattern. It takes time to complete the rally pattern in the monthly  chart, and it has the possibility of the pattern which drives to falling. But the participants' desire of the rally is shown on the chart, and the pressure gauge of the it becomes higher.

In 4-hour chart, the price made the double-bottoms pattern and rallied but plunged again on Thursday breaking down the long trend line. It seems that the price is in the chaos band in short terms.

Continuous Downward of POUND

GBP/USD monthly chart, source:forexfactory.com

The pair of GBP/USD shows the downward trend continuously though it has attempt the rally. The monthly chart shows it apparently.

Since 2009, the pair has moved in the tunnel and sidled along. But it attempts to fall below bottom of the box range in this month. In 4-hour chart and 1-hour chart, GBP/USD pair steps down.

The short bias on this currency pair is available for a while, I thought.

H4 chart, source: forexfactory.com

GBP/USD H1 chart, source: forexfactory.com

Anxiety of HKD's leaving from Peg system leads Asian Markets' plunge

Asian stock markets plunged on Wednesday, Jan. 20. The falling-down of Hong Kong triggered the chain-reaction in the Asian markets, Shanhai, Tokyo and Seoul, persons concerned said. Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong fell 3.82 percent, and Chinese Shanghai Index fell some 1 percent. Japanese Nikkei recorded lowest in 15 months and Korean KOSPI plunged to 184.45 recording lowest level since last August.

Analysts thought a lot of hot money left Hong Kong and it provoked the fall in the market. The anxiety of hard-landing in China, possibility of the abolish of Hong Kong Dollar's peg system, Fed's decision of interest rate rising and the possibility of additional fall of oil price, made the bearish market, they said.

They said, hot moneys were bet to Hong Kong autority's abolish of peg system to USD.

Hong Kong denied the the possibility of the Peg system's discard on last Sunday, but Hong Kong Dollar is under the short pressure.

Hong Kong participants forecast the turmoil in the Asian market due to of the Beijing, Fed, oil price and currency war.

GBP under the downward trend

On Tuesday, GBP/USD pair tried to rise as New York market opened. But the trend of this currency pair has been downward. As looking at the H4 chart, this rebound seems the modification of the trend.

Long Bias of EUR/USD is available

ZEW Economy Sentiment in Germany on 19th showed 10.2 higher than anticipated 8.2. Previous gauge in las Dec. was 16.2. The good gauge than anticipated one but lower than that in last month leaded EUR/USD into the confused trend in Europe session. After the opening in New York, the price began to rise.

H4 chart shows that EUR/USD keeps long trend because the bottom levels of the chart step up gradually, and it seems that the long bias is as available as ever.

It is scheduled the announcement of EUR's Minimum Bid Rate on Thursday, Jan. 21th and it is anticipated the keep of 0.05 percent.

Bearish AUD/USD

AUD/USD H4 chart /source: forexfactory.com

AUD/USD rose gradually in last December, but it turned to bearish trend since the begin of new year. The uncertainty of the global economy effected this this trend, I think. Because the Australian Dollar refects the need of the raw materials and the prices of them.

Chinese market experienced the circuit brakers two times last week, and it showed the uncertainty of the global economy and the world situation as well as Chinese economy. The prices of raw materials are under the bearish trend and it may be natural that AUD/USD goes too.

But nobody can speak that AUD/USD goes toward bearish continously. Whenever it down, the desire of the return from investors up.

Fear from the ignorance?

Twice Circuit Brakers and the crash in China stock market made the global market fall.

But someone says the fear in the market comes from the investors' ignorance about the China market and the policy of the currency.

Calvin from USB Asset thinks that Beijing has tried the evolution of the Chinese Yuan(CNY). It comes from the fact that China adopted the Multicurrency basket system. Under the system, if the Euro, the second largest currency in the Yuan Index goes down, Yuan falls down, too. He insists this flow is not from the currency war.

But he requested that Beijing should do more transparent measures.

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