Wednesday, 28 October 2020
Sunday, 25 October 2020
[EUR] Testing Rising Euro 2020 1026
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR II 2020 1014
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.
The currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to rise in the last week. The Head-and-Shoulders pattern was formed in the one-hour chart, it rebounded at 1.1786 though.
It is positive to euro that the downward trend line in the four-hour chart risese gradually. And 20 Moving Average in the charts direct upward, too.
We can expect the strong euro and be recommended to buy it.
Gjallarhorn anticipates it could exceed 1.1860 at first, because it meets the bearish trend line in the four-hour chart around 1.1860 according to FXDD.com data.
The technical analysis, however, isn't effective than the fundamental analysis nowadays.
The Forex market is directed by the news of the US Presidential election and COVID-19.
The COVID-19 re-proliferation and the fear of twindemic of COVID-19 and influenza make the investors' risk-off sentiment. The negative news makes investors buy the safety-haven asset such as US dollar and gold.
The investors hesitate to buy more risk-on asset due to the uncertain result of the election.
Wall Street expect Joe Biden's victory in the Presidential election on November 3 and say ''Biden Trade'' selling dollar. And they expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus after winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicted the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
The most of the polls about the election support Biden, the Democrat and preidict the Trump's loss. But it isn't certain yet. The approval rate to Donald Trump rises espcially in the swing states rapidly.
Donald Trump won Hillary Clinton and become the president though he got less votes than Clinton's four years ago. And the market participants are prudent to buy the risk-on and someone waits doing after the election.
The Wall Street expected the fiscal stimulus before the election, but it doesn't look possible.
Therefore, the rising of euro may be restrictive. And we need to watch the news more than analyse the charts.
And the long bias to euro is still valid. Gjallarhorn still recommends to buy euro rather than to buy dollar in mid-and-long term.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Sunday, 18 October 2020
[EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR II 2020 1014
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.
The technical analysis isn't effective than the fundamental analysis nowadays.
The Forex market is directed by the news of COVID-19 and the US Presidential election on November 3.
The hopeful news of the coronavirus raises the risky currencies such as euro and euro drops by the news of virus re-proliferation and the fear of twindemic.
The election campaign in the United States affects the Forex market, too.
''Biden Trade'' which implies the bearish greenback, stepped back. The grim news of COVID-19 vaccine and the fail of fiscal stimulus before the Presidential Election on November 3 strengthened the greenback last week.
We need to watch the news more than analyse the charts.
The second pandemic of COVID-19 is realized. As the infection cases soars, Europe raises the blockage measures against the virus.
And the risk-off sentiment eased somewhat at the end of the last week, as US economy indicator was better than the expectation, the greenback rose against major currencies last week though.
Euro was bearish due to the increasing coronavirus cases in the EU, leading to restrictive measures in the Union.
Though the drop of euro, the long bias to euro is still valid. Gjallarhorn still recommends to buy euro rather than to buy dollar in mid-and-long term.
Wall Street bet on Biden in the election in the next month. They expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus after winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicted the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
Meanwhile Fed chair, Jerome Powell and ECB president Christine Lagarde speak respectively on Monday.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Friday, 16 October 2020
Tuesday, 13 October 2020
[EUR] Short USD and Long EUR II 2020 1014
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
cf. [EUR] Rebounding EUR 2020 1006
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 1002
cf. [EUR] Euro on the Corssroad 2020 0926
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Gjallarhorn recognizes that the previous report has been incorrect. It has the long position of euro, and it gives the long bias about euro. If the strong greenback is recommended, it may get cognitive dissonance.
The currency pair EUR/USD plunged suddenly in the Tuesday afternoon(GMT). The US dollar was the lowest level in three weeks against the major currencies.
''Biden Trade'' which implies the bearish greenback, stepped back. The grim news of COVID-19 vaccine and the fail of fiscal stimulus before the Presidential Election on November 3 strengthened the greenback.
The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejected the proposal of the stimulus by President Donald Trump on Tuesday.
These news lowered equities' prices in the market as well as euro.
The offered stance in EUR/USD is also reinforced by disappointing results from the latest ZEW survey in Germany and the broader Eurozone. These results add to the idea that the recovery post-coronavirus crisis could be stalling or that optimism among market participants is debilitating.
The pair EUR/USD is 1.1744 as of 04:30(GMT) and fluctuates in Bollinger Band in the four-hour chart.
Though the drop of euro, the long bias to euro is still valid. Gjallarhorn still recommends to buy euro rather than to buy dollar.
Wall Street bet on Biden in the election in the next month. They expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus after winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicts the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
The news agency, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, Forex market bet Biden, too. It reported Chinese Yuan strengthens against greenback because of the forecast of Biden's victory and the recovery of Chinese economy.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Monday, 12 October 2020
[EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding EUR 2020 1006
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 1002
cf. [EUR] Euro on the Corssroad 2020 0926
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
One of the major currency EUR/USD rose at the end of last week. But the currency pair stepped back as the week began.
Retreating euro is still on the upward trend line in the four-hour chart and it gives investors the hint of still-bullish bias. Though it breaks through the trend line, it would be supported the support line in the daily chart and 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart.
The long bias to euro is still valid.
The dollar moved to three-week lows in early Tuesday as investors expected that there will be large U.S. fiscal stimulus after the Presidential Election on November 3. And the dollar index stood at 93.036, just above Friday's near-three-week low of 92.997.
There are positive news and negative news in the market simultaneously. The expectation of US. fiscal stimulus calls the risk-on but the fear of the re-proliferation of COVID-19 makes the investors buy the safe-haven asset such as gold and greenback.
So, euro fluctuates in the range just attempting to rise.
The long position of euro in the futures market recorded low in two-month according to CFTC data. It is regarded that euro is over-bought.
Meanwhile, Wall Street bet on Biden in the election in the next month. They expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus afer winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicts the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
----------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Tuesday, 6 October 2020
Monday, 5 October 2020
[EUR] Rebounding EUR 2020 1006
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 1002
cf. [EUR] Euro on the Corssroad 2020 0926
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD broke through the downward trend line in the four-hour chart and hovers below 1.18.
The currency pair was in the correction for a week due to the fear of the re-proliferation of COVID-19 and succeeded to rebound last week. The price exceeded 20 Moving Average at first in the daily chart and it gives the positive signals to euro. Though it fluctuates in Bollinger Bands in the daily chart, it can reach to 1.1895.
It is not uncertain whether it breaks through 1.20, yet. But Gjallarhorn expects there may be a attempt to do it.
And the two-weeks-ago correction was supported on 1.16, it gives a cue of bullish euro in short-and-mid term.
Dollar Index which shows dollar's value against the six major currencies fell 0.25 percent to 93.461.
Ahead of Wall Street’s close, the US President Trump said he would be leaving hospital later in the day, as he feels 20 years younger. He added he would leave the hospital at 06:30(EST, 22:30 GMT) on Twitter. And the number of new contagions among White House staff rose.
His leaving the hospital stimulated the risk-on. US President Donald Trump who was positive for COVID 19 in last week leaved the hospital and returned to the White House on late Monday(GMT).
The expectation of the agreement of the additional economy stimulus helped the market, too. The Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi failed to get the agreement but they continued the negotiation by the telephone, Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported.
Meanwhile, analysts at Eurizon SLJ are reported to anticipate EUR/USD falling to 1.13 by the year-end, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to boost easing in response to the low and declining inflation trend.
Eurozone core consumer price index declined to a record low of 0.2% in September. The second quarter's sharp fall in Eurozone labor compensation suggests the core inflation reading could fall further.
-------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Friday, 2 October 2020
[EUR] Coronavirus and Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 1002
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Euro on the Crossroad 2020 0926
cf. [EUR] Unstable Euro in the Pandemic 2020 0922
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro Ahead of FOMC 2020 0915
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
There aren't the explicit pattern and the signal in the four-hour chart of currency pair EUR/USD. There is a downward trend line and the price of the pair fluctuate below 1.176x.
The four-hour chart suggests last week that the euro might rebound technically in the week. We can expect the euro may rise against dollar to 1.1725 at first.
But the one of the major currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates.
The currency pair has the job of exceeding 1.20 level. The price of 1.20 is meaningful and the resistance against breaking-through is strong. The downward trend line which has been effective more ten years is on some 1.20 these days. The exceeding 1.20 means that the price breaks through the main downward trend line, and the greenback enters bearish period.
US Non-Farm Payrolls is released on Friday, and the market expects it may increase 900 thousands, and it increased 1.3 millions in August. Non-Farm Payrolls may amplify the volatility of the euro
Meanwhile US President Donald Trump and FLOTUS were tested positive for coronavirus and they are quarantined on early Friday(GMT). Trump's infection lowers the prices in the market, now.
-------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)