Saturday, 29 August 2020
Wednesday, 26 August 2020
Tuesday, 25 August 2020
[EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0811
cf. [EUR] Euro, Long Bias and Preparing the Correction 2020 0804
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0731
cf. [EUR] Still Rising Euro May Be Tested 2020 0724
Gjallarhorn got the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because it was bought at the local peak.
But Gjallarhorn still has long bias to euro and recommends you buying euro.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD has been fluctuating in Bollinger Bands since the end of July in the four-hour chart.
The currency pair is supported on the bottom band of Bollinger Bands and rebounded though the currency pair retreated to its 120 Exponential Moving Average.
There will be several attempts to exceed 1.20, EUR/USD pair fluctuating in Bollinger Bands while its trying. Fibonacci tells pair price 1.1629 is 38.2 percent fall from the peak, it doesn't seem to do though.
The market participants wait for FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday, and the chart shows the moderate flow.
The market anticipates the dovish stance and it is expected that euro will get the trend after Powell's speech. Fed Chair is expected to speak Fed will tolerate more inflation in US economy. But someone analyses that the price already has reflected the dovish Fed stance and dollar's fall will be restricted.
If Powell's dovish speech doesn't satisfy the market enough, greenback may rise, Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported citing market analysts talk.
The conservative investors is recommended to get the position after the speech.
The top two economy entities, the United States and China talked about the trade by telephone and it supported the risky-on. The representatives from G2 spoke the advance in the talks.
Major German economy index, Ifo Business Climate recorded 92.6 better than expected 92.5 on Tuesday. It gave the hope of German economy's recovery.
The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Confidence Index in the US slumped to 84.8 and fell short of analysts' estimate of 93. But it had little to no impact on the dollar because of the waiting-for the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Meanwhile, Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum. ING said the number of net dollar-position records minimum in eight years and it shows the negative outlook on the greenback.
But analysts at Danske Bank predicted euro's retreat to 1.12 in a half-year. They predicted the US productivity would surpass Eurozone's. And they added the excess liquidity in Europe will burden euro.
U.S. economy daily Wall Street Journal reported on last Thursday, European Central Bank officials supported the additional action to boost Euro economy. WSJ reported they said, ECB had the margin for the support yet.
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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
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Thursday, 20 August 2020
[EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0811
cf. [EUR] Euro, Long Bias and Preparing the Correction 2020 0804
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0731
cf. [EUR] Still Rising Euro May Be Tested 2020 0724
Gjallarhorn got the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because it was bought at the local peak. Rising euro entered the correction eventually just after the deal.
Gjallarhorn still has long bias to euro and recommends you buying euro.
The currency pair EUR/USD has moved toward 1.20 but it failed to exceed the price. FOMC Meeting Minutes released on Wednesday showed the negative economy outlook of committee members and it dropped euro against dollar. The U.S. unemployment claims on Thursday hit over one million again, the previous claims was 971 thousands and 930 thousands cases was expected. Euro plunged to 1.18 and rebounded.
The major currency pair hovers in the channel trying to break through 1.20. It isn't uncertain that euro exceeds 1.20 shortly though the long bias to euro is still valid.
There will be several attempts to exceed 1.20, EUR/USD pair oscillates in Bollinger Bands while its trying. Fibonacci tells pair price 1.1629 is 38.2 percent fall from the peak, it doesn't seem to do though. The pair has been supported above 1.18s.
Dollar rose against major currencies due to the less dovish FOMC Meeting Minutes, but Rising NASDAQ dropped dollar and risky euro could rebound.
Euro needs a better-than-expected German and Eurozone PMIs to be boosted on Friday.
Meanwhile, U.S. economy daily Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, European Central Bank officials supported the additional action to boost Euro economy. WSJ reported they said, ECB had the margin for the support yet.
Eurozone economy recovered step by step but it might deteriorate due to the second coronavirus pandemic, ECB official said.
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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
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Tuesday, 18 August 2020
Monday, 17 August 2020
Friday, 14 August 2020
Monday, 10 August 2020
[EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0811
cf. [EUR] Euro, Long Bias and Preparing the Correction 2020 0804
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0731
cf. [EUR] Still Rising Euro May Be Tested 2020 0724
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD which rose till last month, retreats forming the pattern of the trend-switching to fall, the double tops pattern in the four-hour chart. Gjallarhorn expected the head-and-shoulders pattern but the price rebounded to the previous peak and the pattern wasn't made.
Euro retreats against dollar and drops along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.
We can expect that euro can retreat to 1.1629 at first, which is 38.2 percent fall from the peak. Fibonacci tells euro can fall 1.154x again. It is 50 percent retreat from the peak.
Gjallarhorn still has long bias to euro and recommends you buying euro after euro succeeds the rebound.
The US dollar rose against euro and Swiss Franc before the trade talks on Saturday. The rising tension between top two economy entities and the fiscal stimulus in the United States.
Dollar Index which fell more four percent in July recovers in this month. The positive Non-Farm Payrolls released on last Friday supported dollar.
The tension between US and China makes investors buy safe-haven dollar but the major bias to greenback is short. It is known the speculative investors increased dollar net-short position last week.
Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported, Forex dealers would still buy EUR/USD and it would be supported on 1.17s.
Meanwhile economy records in Europe shows green light.
Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESI in Eurozone in last month rose 6.5 points to 82.3. Market participants guess economy rises when ESI exceeds 100.
PMI exceeded the cut-line to 51.8 last month.
------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
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e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
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Monday, 3 August 2020
[EUR] Euro, Long Bias and Preparing the Correction 2020 0804
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0731
cf. [EUR] Still Rising Euro May Be Tested 2020 0724
cf. [EUR] LONG Bias to Euro 2020 0718
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro against Dollar 2020 0715
cf. [EUR] Euro's attempt on exceeding 1.13 2020 0629
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD which has rallied is forming the pattern of the trend-switching to fall, the head-and-shoulders pattern in the four-hour chart.
Euro retreats after touching 1.19, record-high in two years. It is not certain the pattern will be formed, yet. But it is expected to be done due to the need of the correction. The currency pair rallied without the correction since last month.
Gjallarhorn still has long bias to euro and waits for the entry point to be found. And it will confirm whether the pattern is completed and buy euro.
Gjallarhorn recommends the investors to get the long positions of euro after the possible correction. Euro may retreat to 1.1630 or 1.1540, as Fibonacci is applied to the chart.
The dollar index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies, fell more than four percent last month, recording the highest decline since September 2010, and it fell 10 percent compared to the March peak.
The recovery of the financial market has reduced the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven, and the dollar has been under pressure due to the expectation of further monetary policy easing and the absence of additional fiscal stimulus agreements.
And the rising cases of coronavirus in the United States helped the fall of greenback, too.
The strategists of ING said, the facts which dropped dollar index were still valid and dollar would be sold in August, Yonhap Infomax reported on Tuesday.
Meanwhile Jerome Powell has supported the dovish stance keeping zero interest rate for a long time and dollar declined. And the GDP growth in eurozone hit -12.1 percent in the 2nd quarter, recording the worst in 25 years.
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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD