[EUR]Strong Greenback 2018 1031

EUR/USD one-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

I expected the weak US dollar and recommend the Long Bias on EUR/USD or Euro futures, one of the major currency in short term.

But I should confess it was incorrect and change the bias to short in the EUR/USD chart.

The trade war between G2 and the higher interest rate of T-Notes lead greenback to hike.

I thought forex events might build the correction phase temporarily but the trend would keep up. But it was wrong.

Dollar will keep strong against another currencies. There will be the correction but 120 exponential MA in the one-hour chart will operate as the resist line or 1.1420 will restrain the rise of currency pair, EUR/USD.


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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR/USD, EUR, Euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로/달러, 유로화

[EUR] Goldilocks and Long Bias 2018 1007

EUR/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Long Bias and Fed's Decision 2018 0923 01

I still recommend the Long Bias on EUR/USD or Euro futures, one of the major currency in short term. But the long bias doesn't affirm the upward trend yet.

Since the global finance crisis, the disappointing economy results have led the strong greenback. The deteriorated economy situation made investors only to trust U.S. dollar, dollar's value surged and the currency pair, EUR/USD plunged. Is this mechanism still available till now?

FOMC, Federal Open Market Comittee raised U.S. federal funds rate up to 2.25 percent last September, the price of currency pair, EUR/USD plunged and the trend turned to down in short term. It's natural to predict long dollar because money moves from low interest rate to higher interest rate. But during the finance crisis, U.S. dollar rocketed when FOMC decided to drop the benchmark interest rate. It was the opposite reaction against present situation.

U.S. unemployment rate release on last Friday recored low, 3.7 percent which was lower than market expectation and previous rate. It led greenback high. Good economy results have made investors to expect economy growing and to buy euro, pound and stocks in eurozone and emerging market while the crisis.

I think market moved from abnormal situation to normal situation.

Good news to U.S. economy leads strong dollar. If economy indices from America are better than market's expectation, greenback may rise. And the goldilocks may stimulate the investors to buy risk asset. EUR/USD rises. Forex events may make the price of the pair fall but the trend is upward, I think.

The weekly chart of EUR/USD seems to form a pattern. Whether it makes trend-turning pattern, the price seems to rise in short or mid term. It is able to rise to 1.20s.

Whether you have Long bias or Short bias, it is more important to manage your capital carefully than to guess right the trend, I recommend.




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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR/USD, EUR, Euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로/달러, 유로화