Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise 2019 1230

EUR/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11174 on December 27, 2019. As this year goes end, the variation of the currency narrows.

Euro builds triangle pattern and it faces the right edge of triangle in the weekly chart. It shows that euro accumulates the momentum and will jump or plunge soon.

If it has rising momentum, it can rise to 1.1380s which is 120 exponential moving average at first.

The first-step agreement of U.S.-China Trade talks will be signed in next month, and it leads market participants to buy risky asset.

Euro rallies at the end of the year. Euro broke through 200 Moving Average and downward trend line since 2018. And it has reached upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. It may test breaking over 120 Exponential Moving Average. Euro surges over the trend line in Asian session at the end of the year.

U.S. news agency, Bloomberg reported analysts who answered the survey expected euro to rise more four percent against greenback. They guess euro will be supported by global economy recovery and political tension easing in the next year.

And traders are expected to buy euro, news medias report.

And ECB president Christine Lagarde has spoken she found the clues of the euro-zone-economy recovery in her first ECB meeting. She has had spoken QE before. As well as traders, economists think euro-zone economy will rebound in the next year.

But some participants think the trade war is not finished yet. There will be more difficult second and third round of trade talks and it is not certain the talks reach the agreement.

And there is another political variation, U.S. Presidential Election in the next year. Donald Trump, President is expected to win the election but there are still variations while the campaign.

In England, the Conservatives won  the parliament election and no-deal fear diminishes. But risk of hard Brexit disturbs the rising of GBP.

British PM, Boris Johnson confirmed the Brexit in January, 2020, but someone think it doesn't mean soft Brexit.
Hard Brexit as well as no deal may lower economy growth in Europe and euro, major currency in Europe is affected by Brexit risk, too.

Meanwhile we need to watch Chinese economy carefully in next year. Though U.S.-Sino Trade War ends its first round, the loan risk of Chinese corporations rises more an more.

The profit of government-controlled corporations decreased in 2019 due to the decline of infrastructure construction in China. These corporations reportedly have high debt level and depend on infrastructure construction.

The worse health of companies calls default.

This report is for Forex not Chinese equities. German economy as well as emerging markets depends on Chinese economy, and U.S.-Sino Trade War lowered the global trade and euro zone economy. We need to be interested in China, too. And China is one of big two economy entities.


-------
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.






e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report


https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
https://www.facebook.com/heimdallr999/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD #걀라호른, #유로화, #유로


---------
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

[EUR] Rising Euro 2019 1212

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Awating Two Big Events 2019 1210
cf. [EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

Euro surges after FOMC's benchmark-rate freeze. Currency pair EUR/USD broke through 1.1100 and exceeded 1.1130, and futures item, euro fx-201912, 6EZ19's price shows 1.11445.

Euro is expected to rise and face downward trend line. It seems to exceed the trend line, above 1.1150x.

But it doesn't mean to change the bias. Euro could rise over the downward trend line and upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart, and currency pair eur/usd reaches 120 exponential moving average, 1.135xx.

But it is possible to retreat after facing the meaningful prices.

After FOMC meeting, dollar index, greenback's value against the basket of major six currencies, dropped 0.35 percent to 97.087, lowest level since last July.

FOMC froze the Federal Funds Rate 1.5 percent~1.75 percent and Fed supported the freeze of the benchmark rate for a long time though President Donald Trump has pressed Jerome Powell, Fed Chair to lower the benchmark rate. And it led dollar index to dive more.

Most of market participants expected the rate freeze. Members of FOMC hinted that the benchmark rate would be frozen in the next year, too.

U.S. President Trump gave the notice of the tariffs on Chinese consumer goods on December 15, but Chinese officials forecast the delaying. The expectation of the deal is uncertain, and it presses currencies' volatility.

There are still Forex big events. British snap election and ECB meeting are hold on Thursday, respectively. Deadline of U.S-Sino trade deal comes on Sunday, too.

We need to keep in mind ECB's currency policy of Quantitative Easing in next year. And we should listen to some analysts' careful expectation of weak greenback in next year, too. There are U.S. President election, the possibility of top two economy entities' deal and rebound of euro zone economy.

European Central Bank is likely to keep benchmark interest rate.

And the new President Christine Lagarde is likely to stress the need for more efforts on the fiscal front.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position now. The position would be gotten in next year.

-------
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.






e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report


https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
https://www.facebook.com/heimdallr999/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD #걀라호른, #유로화, #유로
---------
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

[EUR] Awating Two Big Events 2019 1210

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10670 and futures item, Eurof FX-201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.10720 as of 02:17(UTC).

Euro moves in the triangle pattern and its volatility becomes small. Because greenback is under the mixed state as scheduled day of more U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods comes.

As the risk of the fail of U.S.-Sino trade talks has risen, dollar retreated. The deadline of the small deal is Sunday, December 15.

But expectation of the deal is uncertain, and it presses currencies' volatility.

And another big event is planned this week, FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee is hold. FOMC decide U.S. benchmark interest rate and the market expect it would be frozen, 1.75 percent.

It is known the dollar long position is increased. Though the trade war between economy top two, the U.S. economy is still better than another economy entities such as euro zone, and emerging markets.

We need to keep in mind ECB's currency policy of Quantitative Easing in next year. And we should listen to some analysts' careful expectation of weak greenback in next year, too. There are U.S. President election, the possibility of top two economy entities' deal and rebound of euro zone economy.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position now. The position would be gotten in next year.

-------
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.






e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report


https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
https://www.facebook.com/heimdallr999/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD #걀라호른, #유로화, #유로
---------
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

[EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

[EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

The currency of euro zone, euro rises in spot market as well as futures market. Futures, EURO-FX 201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.11005, 0.14 percent high and currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10939 as of 11:35(UTC).

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is likely to rise to 1.11617 or upper band of Bollinger Bands and the latest value of trend line. Euro succeeded to exceed 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart and we are able to expect more rising of euro. The first goal is the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart and it's 1.11617 as mentioned above.

And it is previous high and peaks of double-tops pattern in the daily chart.

But it isn't mean that euro has begun to rally. Euro zone economy is still bad and the United States' is not on the other hand.

Though dollar Index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies falls, it affects emerging markets' currencies not euro.

We need to still watch the euro with short bias in the long term.

Small deal of U.S-Sino trade talks affects greenback positively at this time. The expectation of the deal has raised dollar against Japanese yen and euro.

And we need to watch Friday's Non-farm payrolls, too. Market expects 186 thousands increasing, and 128 thousand payrolls increased in November report.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position on euro. Because book-closing is coming. The position will be gotten in next year.

-------
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com.

Thank you.






e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report


https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
https://www.facebook.com/heimdallr999/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD #걀라호른, #유로화, #유로

[EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is likely to break through 1.10238 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and 1.1039x or 120 Exponential Moving Average and trend line made in four-hour chart. Euro price is 1.10227 in EUR/USD and futures, euro-fx 201912 is 1.10325as of 13:26(UTC).

But its movement is expected to be done in a narrow channel ahead of FOMC meeting in next week.

Though Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Right Acts, top two economies which is under the trade war will sign the small deal of the trade talks soon, market participants expect. And this led New York stock market and the risky asset active.

New York equities recorded historical high in last week.

But long-term trend of euro is still downward, we need to watch the market with short bias.

If it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.


-------
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.






e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report


https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
https://www.facebook.com/heimdallr999/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD #걀라호른, #유로화, #유로