[USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030

cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021
cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011

Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC is hold and release the benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, and currency goods of USDX, currency pair, futures and etc. await FOMC's release moving steady.

USDX, dollar index hits 97.72, currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11105 and euro FX-2019 12 or 6EZ19 is 1.11460 as of 14:15(UTC).

Market participants expect Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate 25bp(0.25 percent) to 1.50~1.75 percent, interest rate band. It means U.S. Dollar falls down.

But market watches Federal Chair's mouth rather than interest rate. Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Fedwatch anticipates Fed's rate-cut with 97 percent, news medias already reported.Though Fed cuts the rate, Fed chair Jerome Powell's hint of the end of rate-cut cycle gives strong momentum to greenback and dollar index, USDX may keep its upward trend in long term

And growing risk of global recession calls safe-haven asset including USD, it raise the price of USD.

Goldilocks in U.S. shows its termination with bad economy indices step by step. Advance GDP in third quarter hit 1.9 percent below 2.0 percent. It makes USD down but global economy is worse.

If Fed cut the interest rate, it is 1.50~1.75 percent higher than euro's one, zero percent. Greenback still has energy of rising.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021
cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

British parliament's vote on Brexit agreement affects euro as well as pound. The decision of vote delaying devaluated euro and the expectation of soft Brexit made them up.

Brexit on time, October 31 doesn't seem to enforce but market participants guess soft Brexit in extended time, and it led euro and sterling on Wednesday. Market participants expect European Union, EU will approve British ask of extension Brexit, and England Prime Minister Boris Johnson is known to be going to hold general election ahead of Christmas.

In any cases, the possibility of No-deal Brexit goes low.

European Central Bank, ECB holds the meeting and decides euro interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate today. This is last meeting held Mario Draghi, ECB president and it seems to freeze the rate at this meeting.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy which has been under Goldilocks seems to enter the recession step by step, too. It devalues dollar. And market participants expect the additional U.S. interest rate cut in the month then dollar falls after Fed's decision.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.11337 and euro fx-2019 12, 6EZ19 records 1.11715 as of 05:46(UTC).

Rising euro since last Tuesday is under the correction. And it tries making Head-and-Shoulders pattern in four-hour chart. If the price falls, 120 Exponential Moving Average, some 1.1060 in four-hour chart may support it. There is possibility of falling to 1.10, too.

An analyst said his view of weak euro to Dow-Jones, because bond spreads between euro zone and Europe countries go narrow more and there is little momentum of euro's rebounding.

The price of pair is under the main downward trend line. EUR/USD has a certain reason of rising for trying breaking through trend line as a resistance line.









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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018
cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

Brexit issue raised the price of British pound and euro. The fear of No-deal Brexit has discounted Europe currencies, especially British pound. And euro has been affected, too. The agreement in last week gave the traders the expectation of soft Brexit and the uncertainty removal.

But British parliament delayed the agreement and called another extension of dead line. It made Europe currencies are in the correction.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy which has been under Goldilocks seems to enter the recession step by step, too. It devalues dollar. And market participants expect the additional U.S. interest rate cut in the month then dollar falls after Fed's decision.

Currency pair EUR/USD continued rising after Brexit draft agreement and is under the correction. It is 1.1153 as of 13:49(UTC), and euro fx-201912 or 6EZ19 hits 1.11965, 0.16 percent down, 13:50(UTC), now.

The daily chart of currency pair shows the price rises along upper band of Bollinger Bands and has broken through 120 exponential moving average and faces main downward trend line, and the price rose on middle band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. The price may test breaking through the trend line and powerful resistance line though Brexit dispute. If it succeeds, euro can reach 1.1300s.

There may be the correction, but the trend seems upward. An news media reported sterling could reach 1.30 and was even able to 1.33 over if British parliament approved it citing analyst's comment. The opposition doesn't agree the draft yet, and it restrain the rising of sterling.

















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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The agreement of Brexit draft supported sterling. Price of currency pair GBP/USD and futures, 6BZ19 rose, and currency pair ended this week with 1.29475 and futures 2019-12, 6BZ19 with 1.3019.

Since English's choice of Brexit, sterling has been devaluated, due to the anxiety of British economy. And British Pound has been under downward trend line.

The dispute among English and administration has disappointed market participants. Boris Johnson, Premier since July spoke he didn't care even 'No Deal Brexit' and pound devalued more.

The agreement in the week gave the expectation of soft Brexit and led sterling up.

The pair GBP/USD broke through 20 moving average and 120 exponential moving average sequentially. Daily chart and four-hour chart showed rising price along upper band in Bollinger Bands. And sterling reached upper band and faced 120 exponential moving average in the weekly chart.

There may be the correction, but the trend seems upward. An news media reported sterling could reach 1.30 and was even able to 1.33 over if British parliament approved it citing analyst's comment. The opposition doesn't agree the draft yet, and it restrain the rising of sterling.

U.S. economy indices show U.S. economy is not always good. It can make Fed cut interest rate again. and devalue dollar.

As well as euro, sterling price seems to rise against U.S. dollar in short term.














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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, GBP, pound, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드화

[EUR] 유로화 하락추세선 돌파 2019 1015

cf. [EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1011
cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

지난주 열린 미중 무역협상에서 부분적 합의 이른바 스몰 딜이 이뤄진 것으로 알려지면서 미 증시를 비롯한 위험자산 가치가 크게 상승했습니다.

미국과 중국은 통화협정에 합의했으며, 미국은 오는 15일로 예정됐던 관세율 인상을 연기했습니다. 하지만 이번 협상에서 합의문은 만들지 않았고, 대신 다음달 16, 17일 칠레에서 열리는 아시아·태평양경제협력제, 에이펙 정상회의 때 트럼프 대통령과 시진핑 중국 국가주석이 만나 합의문에 서명키로 했습니다.

스몰 딜 소식이 알려지자 뉴욕 증시는 다우지수가 1.21 퍼센트 상승했습니다. 다우지수는 한 때 517포인트까지 급등했으나, 합의문에 서명하지는 않았다는 소식이 알려지면서 상승폭이 감소해 319.92포인트 상승에 만족해야 했습니다.

지난 금요일 통화쌍인 유로 달러는 1.10619, 유로화 선물은 1.11115를 기록하고 월요일 현재 조정중입니다.

하지만 미중 무역협상의 완전 타결까지는 넘어야 할 산이 많다는 게 지배적인 시각입니다. 완전한 타결이 이뤄질 때까지 각국 통화는 뚜렷한 방향성을 찾치 못한 채 등락을 거듭할 것으로 보입니다.

유로 달러 통화쌍은 지난 6월 하순부터 형성된 하락추세선을 돌파하고 상승을 이어간 다음 이번 주 조정을 겪고 있는데요, 조정 후 상승랠리를 펼칠 지 아니면 추세선 아래로 가격이 하락하면서 기존의 하락추세를 이어갈지는 좀더 지켜봐야겠습니다.

그런데 내년부터 세계경제는 침체에 빠질 것이란 경고가 쏟아져 나오는 있는 가운데, 아직까지 견고한 미국 경제도 내년에는 성장이 둔화돼도 이상할 게 하나도 없다는 전망이 잇따르고 있다는 점을 눈여겨볼 필요가 있습니다.

실물경제가 나빠지면 투자자금은 대개 수익률이 낮더라도 안전자산으로 몰려들고 있는데, 미국 달러와 일본 엔화는 안전자산으로 평가받고 있습니다.

따라서 유로화의 대추세에 대해선 좀 더 지켜볼 필요가 있겠습니다.
















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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Long bias to Euro in Short term 2019 1013

EUR/USD, four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

The expectation of U.S.-China trade talks in Washington D.C. supported the risk asset and one of the major currency pair EUR/USD and  Euro FX, futures of euro.

The currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.10145 and Euro FX-201912, 6EZ19 hits 1.10640 as of 04:23(UTC).

Donald Trump, U.S. President told he would meet Liu He, China vice premier in White House on Friday and it made market participants watch market in an optimistic mood.

But the conclusion of the top-level U.S.-China talks is not certain yet because the talks doesn't reach any agreement. Nothing is clear.

If top two economies get any agreement, it will boost risk asset and euro rises.

After FOMC meeting minutes was released on Wednesday, euro began to rise and succeeded to broke trough downward trend line in four-hour chart. The positive economy news and the expectation of Fed's interest-cut in the late month leads euro.

In technical view, euro seems to keep rising. It can rise over 1.1124, 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart and 1.1235, downward trend line made in daily and weekly chart.

Before it reaches the resistance line and downward trend line, we need to watch whether it breaks through previous resistance price band and upper band of bollinger band, 1.1079 in the daily chart. If it fail, short bias to euro is still available.

















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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Short Bias to Euro 2019 1006

cf. [EUR] Recession risk and bullish dollar 2019 1003
cf. [EUR] Downward Trend Line still Valid 2019 0926


ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday was released 47.8 which was 49.1 previous month and was forecasted 50.1 better than previous value. It is recorded low in ten years. ISM non-Manufacturing PMI was worse, too. It was released 52.6 on Thursday, which was predicted 55.1.

Non-farm employment change disappointed traders, too. Employee in non-farm sector increased 136 thousands, which was expected 145 thousands.

It can lowers greenback price enough, but its falling was restrained. The unemployment rate hit 3.5 percent, the historical low in fifty years.

There are signals of recession in the United States, but U.S. economy hints it's still good than euro zone economy.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD rebounded the bottom in some two years, but worse economy than that of the United States leads investors prefer greenback.

Though Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate 25bp to 1.75 percent, it is higher than euro's. The main refinancing rate in euro zone or benchmark rate is zero percent and deposit interest rate is negative. ECB announced Quantitative Easing program as well as interest cut, soon.

And the US-China trade conflict and US tariff implications have had a negative impact on the euro.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Friday that U.S. economy is still good and didn't hint about additional rate cut.

Technically, price of the currency pair didn't face the downward trend line yet. For euro's rising, the trend line should be tested whether is broken through or not, and it will not be broken at one time.

Therefore EUR/USD pair has more possibility of falling.

The price of the currency pair was 1.09760 at the end of the week and Euro FX-201912, or 6EZ19 was 1.10335.















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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Recession risk and bullish dollar 2019 1003

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Downward Trend Line still Valid 2019 0926


ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday made market participants to worry about U.S. manufacturing industry. It recorded 47.8 which was 49.1 previous month and was forecasted 50.1 better than previous value. It is recorded low in ten years.

Employment sector released on Wednesday did, too. It was 135 thousands, five thousands less than market consensus  and it was 157 thousands in previous.

The disappointed market sold greenback and bought euro and currency pair EUR/USD rose in two days. EUR/USD broke through 1.09 and 1.0950 in order. It is 1.09494 as of 06:45(UTC).

And Euro FX-201912 or 6EZ19 is recording 1.10050 after 1.10207 as of 06:45(UTC).

Market experts think U.S-China trade conflict begin to affect to U.S. manufacturing.

But as global economy go worse, U.S. dollar rises. Because the possible global economy recession risk makes market participants to buy greenback and other safe-haven asset.Though U.S. economy worries the recession risk, greenback gets traders' long positions. Euro zone economy is worse than U.S. economy.  It seems to be still valid that we have bullish bias on greenback.

One of the powerful Forex events is released on Friday. Non-farm payroll is expected to be 140 thousands and 130 thousands in previous month. We need to note the difference between actual value and expected value. If the real payroll is smaller than expected one, greenback plunges and euro surges.

And we need to just watch the market without deal till non-farm payroll is released on Friday.

Though euro price against dollar rose, it is under the downward trend line yet. After it fell to the bottom in two years, It rises gradually this week, but it should be tested at the downward trend lines since one-year ago and late June in this year.

The price of pair crossed 120 exponential moving average in one-hour chart but under the line in four-hour chart yet. In four-hour chart, if it exceeds 120 exponential moving average line, it has more possibility of correction or turning-down again.













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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화