[JPY] 안전자산으로의 엔화 2019 0930

cf. [JPY] Hovering in Bollinger Bands 2019 0928


최근 들어 일본 엔화는 스위스 프랑화와 함께 미 달러보다도 더 안전한 자산으로 평가받고 있습니다. 그 동안 미국 달러화가 금과 함께 최고의 안전자산으로 여겨지던 것을 감안하면 상당한 변화라 할 수 있습니다.

미국의 트럼프 행정부 출범 이후 계속된 미국과 중국간의 무역갈등은 일본 엔화에 대한 수요를 불렀습니다.

미중 무역협상 전망이 부정적으로 나올 때마다 달러 가치는 하락하고 엔화 환율은 주요국 통화에 대해  상승했습니다.

반대로 글로벌 경제 전망이 조금이라도 희망적으로 보이면 달러 가치는 상승하고 엔화 환율은 하락한 게 올해 들어 외환시장에서 나타난 흐름입니다.

앞으로 R의 공포, 바로 경기침체 경고가 잇따르는 가운데 안전자산 수요가 늘어날 것으로 전망되는데, 무작정 엔화를 매입하는 것에 대해선 신중한 태도를 가질 필요가 있겠습니다.

엔화가 안전자산으로 평가받고 있더라도 일본이라는 국가 역시 여러 리스크를 갖고 있기 때문입니다.

잃어버린 20년이라는 말에서 알 수 있듯이, 디플레이션은 일본의 고질적인 문제입니다. 지난 1985년 플라자 합의 이후 계속된 엔화 평가절상과 아울러 발생한 디플레이션은 지금까지도 일본 경제 성장에서 걸림돌로 작용하고 있습니다.

안전자산 선호 흐름에 따라 엔화에 대한 수요가 늘고, 엔화 가치 역시 상승하는 것은, 반대로 일본제품 수출에 불리하게 적용하는데 수출 가격이 상승하기 때문입니다. 같은 품질이라면 조금 더 저렴한 제품에 손이 가는 건 자연스러운 경제활동입니다.

미중 무역갈등처럼 올 하반기부터 시작된 한일 갈등도 일본 경제에 악영향을 미치고 있습니다. 특히 관광산업과 반도체 소재산업은 한일 갈등의 직접적인 타격을 받고 있는 형편입니다.

주요 통화쌍 가운데 하나인 달러 엔은 주간 차트를 기준으로 지난 2016년이래 볼린저 밴드 안에서 오르내리고 있습니다.

앞으로도 달러 엔 통화쌍은 주간 차트와 일간 차트에서는 볼린저 밴드 안에서 움직일 것으로 보입니다. 거래시 어떤 시간대 차트를 주거래 차트로 사용하느냐에 따라 매수와 매도 전략을 선택적으로 사용할 필요가 있겠습니다.








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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, JPY, yen, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 엔화

[JPY] Hovering in Bollinger Bands 2019 0928

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Japanese Yen(JPY) is evaluated as Safe-haven asset with Swiss Franc, CHF JPY than U.S. dollar these days. It is considerable change because greenback was one-top safe-haven asset before.

Since Trump administration, U.S.-China Trade Conflict has called Japanese Yen. When the talks between top two economies seems gloomy, Yen surges against  other currencies including dollar. If the view on global economy is optimistic, yen retreats.

Yen has the seat of safe-haven but Japan has its own risk like others, too.

Deflation in Japan economy is still problem. More twenty-years long deflation has grabbed Japanese economy growth.

And growing yen price hinders export. It's natural that consumers loves cheaper goods in same quality.

Korea-Japan conflict like U.S.-Sino's hinders Japan industries, too. Media reports Tourism and materials industry are affected by the conflict, directly.

One of the major currencies, USD/JPY has moved up and down in Bollinger Bands, since 2016 in which the pair rose along upper band of Bollinger Bands in weekly chart. It seems to hover in the band, in daily chart and weekly chart.






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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, JPY, yen, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 엔화

[EUR] Downward Trend Line still Valid 2019 0926

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Long or Short 2019 0923
cf. [EUR] After FOMC 2019 0919
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910

An external factor was added to forex market. U.S. House of Representatives prepares to impeach U.S. President, Donald Trump. But the possibility of the impeachment is regarded low, U.S. dollar and Dollar index are rose on Wednesday.

Market participants believe that even if US-China trade conflicts hinder US economic growth, they are better than the global economy.

And the possible global economy recession risk makes market participants to buy greenback and other safe-haven asset. It seems to be still valid we have bullish bias on greenback.

In addition, the hawkish rate-cut supports strong greenback. One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD fell though interest rate of U.S. dollar was cut, and there is still downward trend in the chart.

Currency pair, EUR/USD succeeded to rebound in Asian session on Thursday. Euro tried to make trend shift pattern, 'Double-bottoms' pattern in the one-hour chart. The pattern is made in Euro session and America session, too. It may succeed to build the pattern and the price of currency pair EUR/USD will rise.

But before get long bias on euro, we need to watch carefully the pattern and trend. The price of pair can fall again after the price fails to break through upper band of Bollinger Bands.

In four-hour chart, EUR/USD sinks along the channel between middle band and bottom band.

All downward trend lines are still available and Short bias on EUR/USD is valid, I think.

Gjallarhorn got a short position of micro euro-fx, M6EZ19. As the short position was gotten, the price of euro succeeded to rebound. And the position records loss, now.












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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Long or Short 2019 0923

cf. [EUR] After FOMC 2019 0919
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910


Federal Reserve cut Federal Funds Rate 25bp, or 0.25 percent to interest rate range 1.75~2.00 percent on last Wednesday. It was coincided with market expectation. But market thought of Fed's view on the market as hawkish view. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't hint more rate cut and market participants anticipate the rate freeze till next year.

The hawkish rate-cut supports strong greenback. One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD fell though interest rate of U.S. dollar was cut, and there is still downward trend in the chart.

Currency pair, EUR/USD rebounded in Asian session, Monday after it plunged last week. But before get long position of the pair, we need to watch German Ifo Business Climate released on Tuesday. Market expectation is 94.5 and it was 94.3 before. The worse release of Ifo Biz Climate than expectation may lower euro.

But German economy is under pessimistic view, because Trump's America first policy hinders China economy and German's.

The possible recession in Germany will hinder euro, and lead dollar long, euro short.

Though euro will succeed to rebound, traders need to watch the chart more carefully. We need to watch whether the price of pair breaks through 20 Moving Average or middle band of Bollinger Bands. If you watch more carefully, upper band of Bollinger Bands is needed. Because though the pattern, for example double-bottoms pattern, is made, it may fail to build the upward trend.









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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] After FOMC 2019 0919

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910

FOMC meeting result was not different with market's expectation. Federal Reserve cut Federal Funds Rate 25bp, or 0.25 percent to 1.75~2.00 percent on Wednesday.

The cut of benchmark interest rate usually lowers its currency price. And possible US dollar and dollar index's fall is not abnormal. But market moved dollar long because Fed didn't hint at the additional cut. It seems to freeze the interest rate till next year, but some members want more rate cut in the year.

Market analysts think Fed will freeze the benchmark interest rate and looks global economy positively. No more interest rate cut in the year may still lead strong greenback, market wants more dovish action of Fed.

And the indicate about Germany, German ZEW Economic Sentiment was -22.5. But the expectation was -38.0 and improved index led euro to rise.

The downward trend line in eur/usd daily chart and four-hour chart is still valid, and it support long dollar and short euro with Fed's statement.

In short term, currency pair eur/usd can rise till the trend line or upper band of Bollinger Bands, 1.1061~1.1070.

The Short position of micro Euro-FX or M6EZ19 which I have held, was liquidated on Tuesday, because euro rose. Whether it was closed with profit or loss, it meant that my short bias was wrong in short term.







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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910

European Central Bank froze Main Refinancing Rate to 0.0 percent last Thursday. The market expected the rate might be cut to negative 0.1 percent but only the deposit rate was cut to -0.5 percent.

And ECB lowered GDP in euro zone, this year and planned to begin Quantitative Easing program again from November.

As ECB froze the benchmark interest rate, currency pair EUR/USD dived to 1.0926 the lowest level in two years but it succeeded to rebound making 'V pattern'. The news of Top two economies' resuming trade talk supported risky asset.

It is reported that Germany, Number one economy entity in Europe planned the Shadow budget to invest in infrastructure and preventing climate change, and it raised euro, relatively risk asset.

It rose to 1.1106 and retreats below 1.1100 in Asian session, Monday.

FOMC meeting is hold this week. Market participants anticipate Fed will cut Federal Funds Rate, 25bp to 2.0~1.75 percent band.

The positive expectation of small deal in the trade tension and anticipated benchmark interest cut may lower dollar and support euro. But pessimistic outlook on euro economy and the attack to petroleum refinement facilities in Saudi Arabia may restrain euro.

The downward trend line since third quarter in 2018 is still available and resists against euro's rising. And the expected Fed's interest cut doesn't boost euro sufficiently.

And it seems that euro hovers in Bollinger Bands.

Gjallarhorn has Short position of micro Euro-FX or M6EZ19. When the position was gotten, I thought ECB's decision would lead euro down. The position records loss now, but the short position will be hold for a while.










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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] ECB and Fed 2019 0910

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

One of the currency pairs, EUR/USD rose 0.22 percent yesterday. It is reported that Germany, Number one economy entity in Europe planned the Shadow budget to invest in infrastructure and preventing climate change, and it raised euro, relatively risk asset. And the German exports in July increased 0.7 percent MoM, which was expected negative growth.

The positive signal between top 2 economy countries the United States and China under the trade war helped euro, too. The trade negotiation is planned to resume in next month and Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary denied recession being visible in the United States and anticipated the U.S. economy growth in the year while the interview with Fox Business on Monday.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair hinted the additional benchmark interest rate cut on next Wednesday. The market expects 25bp or 0.25 percent interest cut in FOMC meeting.

But these news didn't raise euro sufficiently, ECB is believed to cut benchmark-interest cut and continue Quantitative Easing.

Bloomberg reported economists survey that European Central Bank led by Mario Draghi may cut Main Refinancing Rate to -0.1 percent on Thursday. It is zero percent, now. And they expect ECB resume Asset Buying again to boost Europe economy.

GDP in euro zone, 2nd quarter recorded 0.2 percent growth, it was 0.4 percent in first quarter.

Governor of the Bank of Finland already claimed more strong package including QE and interest cut last month.

The pair is 1.1044 in Asian session, now. Euro FX September(6EU19) records 1.10495 in Asian session, too. It is expired in the week. 6EZ19(December) price is 1.11245. It moves in narrow channel.

The daily chart and the four-hour chart keep downward trend. When euro rose due to good economy news, it failed to break through 120 EMA and change the trend in four-hour chart. It tests to break through 120 EMA and resistance line again but it is not sure to succeed yet.

It seem to move up and down in the Bollinger Band till ECB spoke benchmark rate on Thursday. And we need to watch FOMC meeting next week, too.








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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화