Short Bias Available in Short Term

EUR/USD 4-Hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

The four-hour chart tells the downward of EURO against US Dollar. And we have no difficulty of expectation of weak Euro for a while. What do we forecast with the plunging with some adjustments chart? 

It seems to be reasonable that watch the market with short bias though we don't ask to toddler whether it's long or not.

EUR/USD weekly chart, source:forexfactory.com

And what does the weekly chart of EUR/USD tell us? The major currency pair EUR/USD has traveled on downward trend since 2014. The short bias is seemed to be available. But the pair tried the rebound from the last year on the weekly chart. It didn't turn the direction up but didn't helplessly fall more. The historical parity of EUR/USD, h1 EUR = 1 USD' may make the participants burdensome. Euro, fallen near the parity, raises its bottoms. This plunge may be interpreted the adjustment in the weekly chart.

The short position by the simple idea from the hours charts may harm the account, the weekly chart tells.

In June, the important economic events are planned. And it's need to be watched the some economic news. On Wednesday (01:00, GMT) China speaks its Manufacturing PMI, OPEC meeting is hold on Thursday. ECB, European Central Bank speaks the Minimum Bid Rate at 11:00(GMT) on Thursday. The most powerful periodical economic index, U.S. Non-farm employment changes is announced at 12:30(GMT) or 8:30(US Eastern Time), Friday.

In late June, the English referendum about the Brexit is held.

Trend Wins the News

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

One of the impact economic index, German Ifo business climate is announced 107.7 advanced than prior index and expected value of 106.9 at 08:00 GMT. EUR/USD naturally reacted to the Ifo indicator and the good news lead the price to edge up. But the candle in 1-hour chart and 5-minute chart failed to make its feature long positive candle but left the sharp dodge on the chart respectively.

In ordinary market circumstance, the good news from the impact economic index makes the price high, and the raising circumstance continues in the short or mid terms. But today's flow isn't ordinary. The pressure of the price to down was stronger than the impact of the news. Therefore the EUR/USD failed to rebound and it sidles and seems to fall again.

The market watches the decision of Fed in June. And the election of Brexit is scheduled in late June. The uncertainty of political situation as well as the depression keeps the price in unstable state.

JPY Long Bias is Available

USD/JPY daily chart, source: forexfactory.com

USD/JPY which has declined since last year tries to rebound. There was the adjustment against the downward in April, and it looks like repeating the pattern in this month, too. But the currency pair has dropped its peaks since last year, it means strong Japanese Yen. In last month it tried the rebound(strong US Dollar) but failed to raise its peaks, and continued its trend. Therefore it is reasonable to watch the market in the adjustment, and need to check whether it break the peak in April, I guess.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

In 4-hour chart it is explicit of the upward trend of USD/JPY pair, it means strong US Dollar. On May 3 it made the bottom and turned its direction raising its bottoms. In my experience, there is the possibility that the upward trend in the short term meets end and enters the adjustment term.

We need to watch more carefully the opinions of economic headers than analyze the chart technically. 'Abenomics', economy policy of Japanese Cabinet is based on the weak Yen, strong Dollar. And Haruhiko Kuroda, president of Bank of Japan decided the minus benchmark index to stimulate the corporations' action. They support the weak Yen.

Yen, however, has kept long despite the economy teams' desire. The depression in world economy needed Yen evaluated as the safety asset like US Dollar. As watching the chart, Yen keeps the upward trend but there are the rebounding terms periodically. U.S. team doubts that the Tokyo team intervenes the FX market. From the statements from Tokyo, U.S. suspicion has justice in some measure. The G7 meeting held in Sendai, Japan on Friday and Saturday, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew warned the intervention of Japanese government to the foreign exchange market.

Strong Pound?

GBP/USD daily chart, source:forexfactory.com

One of the major currency pair, GBP/USD continues its upward trend since March in which Pound rebound from the bottom. Though it faced the adjustment in the rally several times, it raised bottoms. And it is under the adjustment again. We need to watch the market whether it continues the rally or turns its direction to down.

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

In the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD made the downward trend after it dropped the peaks after recording highest peak in mid term. When we watch only 4-hour chart, it seems that the cable keeps short position against Dollar. But the daily chart tells the margin of the rise and it rallies in 1-hour chart yet. the currency pair raises peaks and bottoms and repeats the adjustment and rising in the 1-hour chart.

Then it may be reasonable to keep the long bias about GBP/USD. But we need to concern the foreign exchange market itself not in technical analysis. FOMC, U.S. Federal Open Market Comittee think the raise of the Federal Fund Rate yet according to the meeting minutes of April opened on Wednesday. Though the governors in Europe banks such as European Central Bank and Bank of England noticed the no raise of interest rate, the U.S. Fed implies its benchmark rate's raise. In the early year, Feb spoke that it would not hurry the action due to the global depression but the meeting minutes confirmed that the possibility is remained available. U.S. New York Federal Reserved President William Dudley spoke that strong U.S. economy state made the margin of the raise.
 GBP/USD 1 HOUR chart, source:forexfactory.com

U.S. Fed's decision to hike is the main fact of dropping the cable. But in the chart Pound rallies against US Dollar yet. In this point the technical analysis and the fundamental analysis clash each other. When this situation the decision is trader's job. I anticipate the strong Dollar not Pound and suggest the neutral position on Pound.

It's up to traders to expect what the direction of Pound goes. But it need to be prepared the opposition situation's appearance. The risk management is prior to forecast the currency direction, I want to tell.

EUR/USD, Still Under the Pressure of Plunge

EUR/USD 1 h chart, source: forexfactory.com

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD has shown the pattern of 'sideways drifting and decline' recently. Though it raised its bottom but downward trend is still same, I think. Because in one-hour chart keeps the pattern of 'sideways drift and decline'.

The unemployment claims in the U.S. advanced than that in last week but it was worse than the expected value, it led the strong USD and the weak EUR. Euro, however, recovered to prior price and tried the turn of the trend.

In the more large size charts, however, weak Euro is explicit.


EUR/USD h4 chart, source:forexfactory.com

Current Euro is shown in 4-hour chart explicitly. After the peak in early May, EUR/USD has drawn the downward trend. There were drifting and some return, it continuously lowered the peaks and its trend is available still. In this chart, Euro return back marking lowest  point but it is reasonable this moving is temporary and the downward trend is available, I guess.

EUR/USD daily chart source:forexfactory.com

Euro faces two ways of rebounding and updating the lowest price after April in the daily chart but there is the more possibility of decline.

Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said his opinion of the margin of interest rate raising due to the good economy circumstance in the United States. And he said the action would be shown in June or July.

His statements seems that the uncertainty of FOMC's decision is raised rather than the raise of the Fund Rate. Federal Reserved System, Fed implied the raise of the benchmark rate several times in this year but the uncertain global economic situation made Fed hesitated the action. And Dudley's speak means there are mixed opinion of hawkish and dovish and Fed doesn't have explicit opinion rather than the Fund Rate will be raised soon.

And I think the trade is determined on strong bias on USD due to the raising of the rate in June and short bias on USD due to the freeze of the rate, simultaneously.

EUR / USD：ユーロ下落圧力相変わらず

ユーロ/ドルは下落した後横ばい歳を見せている。少しずつ底を高めているが下落は相変わらずだ見ることができる。 1時間チャートでユーロ/ドルは下落 - 横ばいパターンを維持しているからである。米国失業手当請求件数が先週より好転した数値を見せたが、市場予想より悪化した結果を見せるドルはユーロに対して強気を見せた、通常ユーロは下げ幅を回復しながら、トレンドの電話を模索した。

しかし、ますます大きな時間帯チャートに行くほどユーロの安はさらにはっきりとなる。

ユーロの現在の姿は、4時間棒チャートではっきり見ることができだろう。 5月初めの頂点を撮影したユーロは下落傾向を示してきた。横ばいと差し戻しを見せた粘性を継続的に下げてきた、その傾向は今も変わらない。 4時間チャートでユーロは底を打ち反発を模索しているが、一時的な現象で見るのが妥当そうだ。


日刊チャートでユーロは4月底を再確認し、反発と低粘度更新分かれ道の間に立っているが下落パターンを形成し、追加下落する可能性を示している。


一方、ニューヨーク連邦銀行総裁のウィリアムヅドゥルリは、米国経済は良好で追加利上げ余力があると表明している。そして、利上げの時期は6月か7月頃になると述べた。


彼の発言は、その後FOMCが金利を引き上げることではなく、FOMCの決定の不確実性を高めたものと見られる。昨年の連邦準備制度理事会は、今年数回に渡って利上げを行うと示唆したが、不確実な世界経済のために実行に移すことを躊躇してきた。したがってヅドゥルリの発言はFOMCが金利を引き上げるという明確なシグナルを送信するよりもタカ派的な視点とハト派的な見方が理事会ネエ混在しており、明確な方向性を決定していないことを確認するつもり。


したがって、6月利上げに伴うドル高ではなく、金利凍結によるドル安の可能性も念頭に置いて取引取り組むべきことだ。

GBP in mixed zone

In the daily chart of GBP/USD, it seems that the price ended and turned its trend, mild upward. The price fluctuated in the channel but it raised its bottoms. Now GBP/USD price gaind and may be faced the adjustment. If the trend line is available, the price will rebound after the short adjustment.

In the one-hour chart, the price vibrates in the channel after the surge. The upward trend line is found in 4-hour chart but GBP/USD price moves in the channel in 1-hour chart. In 4-hour chart, it surged and seems to attempt a pattern such as Head-and-Shoulder pattern.

In the ordinary state, Pound moves with Euro. If Euro rises, Pound rises, and if Euro declines Pound falls, too. But their chart isn't similar exactly, of course.

While major currency pair, EUR/USD dives, does British Pound go up alone? In the released meeting minutes of April of FOMC, there was the hawkish eye implying the rising of U.S. Benchmark index. It led the fall of Euro and stock prices. US Dollar Index rose to 95.2. They force the fall of Pound, too. 

The rising price may face the resistance and make the downward pattern such as Head-and-Shoulder or Double-tops patterns, I think.

Bad news and Strong Dollar

EUR/USD 1hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

U.S. authority announced the Unemployment claims decreased to 278,000 on Thursday. It was higher recording 294,000 last week. But the market players expected the more advanced gauge, 276,000 and it occurred as the decline of Euro and strong US Dollar. Though the index was advanced than that in last week, it was deteriorated than expected value. The fact of bad result against the expected value leads the decline of the price.

But the event was ended and the price of the currecy pair, EUR/USD gained again. It recovered its price to the level before the announcement. Our topic is where it goes, up or down. Since May 3, EUR/USD pair declines from the peak 1.16. It tried the rebound but it shrank again. There is the downward trend line on this currency pair and the rebound in today may be restricted by the trend line. The meeting minutes in April of FOMC released on Wednesday showed that officials said a June rate hike would be appropriate if economic data indicated that growth was picking up in the second quarter and employment and inflation were firming. It can be read as the strong US Dollar. And it will be appropriate having short bias in EUR/USD chart.

Most of all, traders need to manage the risk than forecast the direction of the chart.

EUR/USD 4 hours chart, source: forexfactory.com

GBP strong bias

GBP/USD declined since May but it seems that upward trend is available yet by the GBP/USD daily chart.

Rising cable turned the direction breaking the upward trend line as May began and is under the adjustment at the 4-hour chart. Uncertain economic situation presses the currency pair down but the trend line in the daily chart is effective yet, I think.

Since the international financial crisis, 2008, US Dollar value has upgraded and its trend continues. But the GBP's direction isn't shown to dive though it experiences the adjustment. It seems that cable is supported at 1.43 level.

On Wednesday, FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee of Untied States opens its meeting minutes in April and it is one of the powerful events in the currency market. FOMC decided the benchmark interest rate unchanged in April. Its minutes will show what the members of the committee think and expect. It is needed to watch the market not to trade while the minutes is opened.

EUROの滴

私は、主要通貨ペアの1は、EUR/ USDは1.1350レベルでその衰退を停止し、火曜日にリバウンドだろうと予測しました。しかし、それはレベルを破って、1.13の下に縮小しました。その特徴は、ダブルトップのパターンだし、それはより多くの低下を招きます。それは1.1214に飛び込むの可能性、後半4月以来の最低点を持っており、レベルにリバウンドすることができます。しかし、それは上昇傾向を保証するものではありません。

ペアの見通しはネガティブです。ゴールドマン・サックスは、近くのパリティを予想しました。それはInvesting.comは金曜日に報告し、1.05レベルを期待しました。別の投資銀行は、ドイツも、話を聞きました。そして、そのを期待が破壊パリティから進んでいます。

一方、4月の中核小売売上高は、前の月に0.8パーセント増加しました。これは、0.6％と予想されました。強いドルを導くようです。

EUR/USD Drops

I forecasted the one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD would stop its decline at 1.1350 level and rebound on Tuesday. But it broke the level and shrank under 1.13. Its feature seems double-tops pattern and it leads the more decline. It has the possibility of diving into 1.1214, the lowest point since late April, and may be rebound at the level. But it doesn't guarantee the upward trend.

The forecast of the pair is negative. Goldman Sachs anticipated the near parity. It expected the 1.05 level, Investing.com reported on Friday. Another investment bank, Deutsche spoke, too. And its expects are advanced from the breaking parity.

Meanwhile, the core retail sales in April increased 0.8 percent prior to March. It was expected 0.6 percent. It seems lead the strong US Dollar.

Japanese Yen- Strong Momentum yet

USD/JPY 4-hour chart, source: forexfactoy.com

Japanese Yen(JPY) is classified as the safety asset with US Dollar. The economic uncertainty uses to lead JPY and USD to higher value in the financial market. But where does JPY go if Japanese economic situation itself is under the uncertainty?

Japan's leaders have tried the weak JPY to stimulate the its economy for years. Abe, Japanese premier intervened the fx market speaking the weak JPY, and Kuroda, governor of Bank of Japan(BOJ) decided the index rate into minus.

But their desire was not accepted by the market player, it has flied high.

Japanese economic situation is under the depression, too. Its fiscal sustainability faces the going worse and it is the burden of economy and government finance. Abe's cabinet guesses the increase of the consumption tax to solve the fiscal sustainability problem and the risk of shrink in the national credit grade.

Japan's credit grade ranked AAA, the highest class till late 1990s, but it has gradually step down and it ranks at A1(Mudis and S&P) or A2(Pitch) now. Its ranking is under the that of China and Korea.

In this week USD/JPY goes high and JPY's value is weaken. It rose 108.98 from 105.45 since May 3. USD/JPY steps back for the adjustment. It's not uncertain it makes the double-tops pattern or rise again after the adjustment yet in the 4-hour chart. But in the daily chart it has lowered the tops since this year and made the downward trend.

USD/JPY rises in short term and it turns its direction again, I think.

USD/JPY daily chart, source: forexfactoy.com

EUR/USD: Awaiting another opportunity

EUR/USD h4 chart, source:forexfactory.com

From Apr. 25 Euro advanced but it seems to swing. It reached 1.16 level but fell down now. It doesn't show a meaningful pattern such as a Head-and-Shoulder pattern. The H-S pattern may be discovered but it's not explicit.

It seems that it doesn't shrink but doesn't turn its direction. It will sidle along in the narrow channel, bandwidth from 1.1350 to 1.1450 for a while, I think.

The worldwide recession gives no explicit signal to traders. Market-participants agree the strong US dollar and Japanese Yen, but do they decide the direction of Euro?