[EUR] Giant Step and 2022 0728

cf. [EUR] The Restricted Rise 2022 0719

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has a short position of the euro in CME, now.

The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in a channel plunged ahead of the FOMC meeting and rebounded after the FOMC meeting. 

The pair returned into the channel. It seems that the pair tries to exceed the channel ceilling and 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart.

But it's unlikely the euro break through the 120 EMA and makes a upward trend, yet. It may not exceed 1.0350 reinforcing the bearish trend though it exceeds the channel and the 120 EMA in the four-hour chart.

The currency pair seems to continue the fluctuation between 1.0130 and 1.0265 for a while.

The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate 75bp to 2.5 percent. It was the giant step as the markets expected. The FOMC hiked the benchmark rate 75bp twice in a row, the dollar fell though. The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the six peers basket dropped 82bp to 106.373.

The rate hike was in the markets' expectation, the dollar lost the upward momentum though the recession risk.

The surging inflation world wide has pressed the central bank hike their benchmark interest rate. The European Central Bank, ECB has gotten the big step, too.

The U.S. CPI in June rose 9.1 percent from June last year. It was 8.6 percent in May.

It is reasonable to think the Fed raises the FFR in September, too.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

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[EUR] The Restricted Rise 2022 0719

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2022 0621

cf. [EUR] Giant Step and Retreating Dollar 2022 0617

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position in CME, now.

The currency pair EUR/USD plunged to the historical parity last week. It even sank below 1.0 for a while.

The EUR/USD rebounded after the touch 1.0 and it is 1.01xx in the early week.

The rebounding euro is expected to rise to the 120 exponential moving average 1.025x in the four-hour chart or 1.029x, 20 moving average in the daily chart at least.

But the bias on the euro is short. The benchmark hike on the dollar is anticipated and it support the dollar's rally.

The European Central Bank, ECB is expected to hike the benchmark rate in the week, too. The traders guess the basic step, 0.25 percent. It isn't powerful than dollar's. And the global stagflation risk calls the risk-averse sentiment.

After the euro's parity to the dollar last week, the euro rebounded. It is hard to think the euro plunges below  1.0 against the greenback at once and the traders can guess the euro rise again on the parity.

The market participants guessed the Fed's jumbo step, 1.0 percent rate hike but they expect the 75 basis point hike, the giant step again. It supported the risk-on sentiment and helped the euro.

The dollar index tracking the greenback against the currencies' basket dropped 56bp to 107.421.

The hawkish Fed member, Christopher J. Waller has supported the benchmark interest rate hike, but he doesn't agree the jumbo step, 100bp hike.

Another hawkish member, James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hinted he supported 75bp hike while the interview with Japanese economy daily, Nihon Keizai Shinbun. He said, the current pace of the interest rate hike was valid.

The customer price index in June released last Wednesday rose 9.1 percent and it made the traders expect 100bp hike.

The Federal Reserve holds the FOMC next Tuesday and Wednesday. It is expected the FOMC will hike the Federal Fund Rate and release the monetary policy.

The speculative dealers still bet on the strong dollar. The long positions on the greenback hit high in the seven weeks.

An expert on the bond said, the Fed seemed to support 75bp than 100bp.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com. 

Thank you.

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft

Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report

https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/

http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #FOREX, #FXMargin, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD