Friday, 26 February 2021
[EUR] EURO in the Correction 2021 0226
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0225
Gjallarhorn liquidated the long postion of euro as the price dropped to the stop order.
The currency pair EUR/USD fell sharply after touching 1.22424. It dropped below the 120 exponential moving average on the four-hour chart and the diving momentum seems to be powerful. The Fibonacci which is formed from last November shows the euro has retreated just 23.6 percent, it still support the bullish trend to euro.
But it is anticipated euro may fall to the bottom band of Bollinger Band on the daily chart and to 1.1970 on which the 120 EMA lies on the daily chart.
Though the correction, the long bias to euro is still valid. It may be a good time to buy euro when this correction is completed.
Unlike the fallen euro, the U.S. dollar surged due to the rising U.S. Treasury yields. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the dovish statement while the testifying, the 10-y yields reached 1.50 percent though. It reflects the concern about the inflation.
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair testified the dovish stance while his testifying the continuous easing policy in the Senate and the House of Representatives respectively. He said, the low interest rate and the massive purchase of the asset would be kept till the economy recovers more.
He predicted three years at least in which the inflation reached Fed's goal.
The reflation betting on the Forex market lowered the dollar boosting the euro. The euro could reach above 1.2240.
As the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield surged above 1.50 percent at once and the concern about the inflation possibility rose, the dollar rallied.
Meanwhile the preliminary GDP released on Thursday was 4.1 percent growth, worse than the market expectation 4.2 percent, and the U.S. unemployment claims recorded 730 thousands. The markets expect 828 thousands and it was 861 thousands in the previous week.
------------------------------------------
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Wednesday, 24 February 2021
[EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0225
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro 2021 0223
cf. [EUR] Retreated Euro 2021 0218
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0217
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2021 0213
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0209
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market, CME.
The currency pair EUR/USD moved in the sidling Bollinger Bands. While the pair's sidling-along, it was supported above 120 exponential moving average and 20 moving average on the four-hour chart after EUR/USD succeeded to rebound on 1.2090 breaking through the downward trend line.
The pair is above the main bearish trend line, it hasn't yet exceeded 1.2175 though. If it succeeds the previous peak in the four-hour chart, the traders can expect its hit 1.22 and the yearly peak 1.2349.
The upward channel is watched in the one-hour chart and Gjallarhorn holds the long bias of euro.
There was the German 10-y bond auction, Wednesday. It was sold at the yield -0.32 percent, which was expected -0.54 percent. The U.S. Treasury yields rose above 1.40 percent for a while, and the rising U.S. yields lowered the dollar.
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair testified the dovish stance while his testifying the continuous easing policy in the Senate and the House of Representatives respectively. He said, the low interest rate and the massive purchase of the asset would be kept till the economy recovers more.
He predicted three years at least in which the inflation reached Fed's goal.
The markets expect the U.S. fiscal stimulus package will be passed in the week, after Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House said the package would be passed in the House.
And the market anticipate the reflation and the risk-on currencies have risen against the dollar. The Aussie hit the three-year high.
The positive news of the vaccination supported the reflation-betting. The U.S. FDA spoke, it supported the emergency use of the another vaccine by Johnson & Jonhns. It may be the third vaccine admitted in the U.S.
Alan Ruskin, an international strategist at Deutsche Bank said, the market focus was far ahead of what Powell said. Powell focused on the current state of the US economy and employment, but the foreign exchange market was more focused on inflation and reflation, he added.
But a strategist, Ulrich Leutmann at Commerzbank said, the difference of the economy growth between EU and the U.S. and it is negative to euro. He added the trend of EUR/USD in the mid term is determined by whether the U.S economy enters the Goldilocks after the strong lockdown and the euro may be bearish.
The preliminary GDP is released on Thursday, and the markets expects 4.2 percent growth. And the authority concerned release the U.S. unemployment claims on Thursday. The markets expect 828 thousands and it was 861 thousands in the previous week.
------------------------------------------
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Monday, 22 February 2021
[EUR] Rising Euro 2021 0223
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Retreated Euro 2021 0218
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0217
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2021 0213
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0209
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market, CME.
The currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to rebound on 1.2090 breaking through the downward trend line.
The 120 exponential moving average and 20 moving average in the four-hour chart has supported the euro, helping its rally.
If it continues to rally, the traders need to watch whether it reaches to 1.2348, the peak in the year. And if it is under the correction, it could be supported on 1.2120s.
The rising anticipation of the global reflation and the better record than expectation in EU supported the euro. The bond yields in the U.S. rose due to the expectation of passing the bill of the massive fiscal stimulus and the rising vaccination against COVID-19.
The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the major six-currencies' basket dropped 0.25 percent to 90.118.
The markets expect the U.S. fiscal stimulus package will be passed in the week, after Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House said the package would be passed in the House.
The German Ifo Business Climate helped the currency pair's rally on Monday. It hit 92.4 better than the market expectation 90.5 and the previous record 90.3. The German Ifo Business Climate is one of the important economy index in Europe.
Forex strategist Izumi Yukio at Daiwa Securities analyzed the commodity currencies and the British pound rose against the dollar and this trend seemed to continue, Yonhap Infomax reported.
But the outlook of euro is not clear. Strategist, Ulrich Leutmann at Commerzbank said, the difference of the economy growth between EU and the U.S. and it is negative to euro. He added the trend of EUR/USD in the mid term is determined by whether the U.S economy enters the Goldilocks after the strong lockdown and the euro may be bearish.
Joel Frank at FXStreet.com said that with the Eurozone’s vaccine rollout lagging, meaning that its post-Covid-19 economic rebound is likely to be postponed, and the prospects for any meaningful pick up in long-term inflation much milder than in the US, EUR underperformance over these past few weeks is perhaps unsurprising and seems likely to continue. That does not mean that the rug might not be pulled from beneath the US dollar and for it to resume its long-term downtrend that had been in play for much of 2020. If that was to be the case, even though the euro wouldn’t be the prime G10 candidate to benefit from this, EUR/USD would likely head back towards cycle highs.
ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments that the ECB is closely monitoring the evolution of longer-term nominal bond yields did not lead to much reaction in the euro. The idea that Lagarde’s ECB would take a hands-on approach towards the management of bond yields is nothing new.
And Azeez M. Mustapha at cryptovibes.com said the currency pair had returned to the bullish in the long term.
------------------------------------------
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Saturday, 20 February 2021
Friday, 19 February 2021
[JPY] Dollar in the Correction 2021 0220
 |
| USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [JPY] Rising Yen, Falling Dollar 2021 0211
cf. [JPY] Sank Yen 2021 01230
cf. [JPY] Bullish Yen 2021 0122
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of euro futures.
The currency pair USD/JPY retreated from 106.21 to 105.40 since Wednesday. It means that the safe-haven Japanese Yen has risen against the dollar. The dollar tried to rebound but failed leaving the doji candles in the four-hour chart.
It seems the pair to step down in the next week, but it may rebound at 105.03x on the upward trend line or 104.9x on 120 exponential moving average.
The recovery of the risk-on sentiment devalued the greenback. The slow recovery in the employment market affected to the dollar, too.
The safe-have Japanese Yen rose against the greenback though the risk-on sentiment.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI in Japan hit 50.6 better than expectation 50.0 and previous 49.8. It hinted the recovery of Japanese economy but it didnd't supported Japanese Yen. The inflation and domestic recovery remained weak.
The Bank of Japan has signaled that it will continue buying ETF’s as needed and has no intention of selling any. That pushed the Nikkei through 30,000 and should continue next week depending on developments on Wall Street.
Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA reported, rising yields made investors nervous and the Fed Chair might put their minds at ease.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen supported the risk-on sentiment emphasizing the massive fiscal stimulus package.
The ruling Democratic will pass the bill of 1.9 trillion dollar package in the next week reportedly.
---------------------------
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Thursday, 18 February 2021
Wednesday, 17 February 2021
[EUR] Retreated Euro 2021 0218
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0217
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2021 0213
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0209
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market and records the loss.
One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD plunged in the week.
The pair failed to succeed to break through the downward trend line yet, and it has stepped down.
The charts of EUR/USD supports the euro may continue to fall, but it also give the clue of the rebounding. The one-hour chart shows the diving euro begins to rebound, and the daily chart tells the euro still tries to break the bearish trend line.
The traders need to watch the euro whether it break through the bearish trend line clearly which shows the next step.
The Fed reasserted the QE policies till the goal is completed, again in the meeting minutes. But the dovish meeting minutes of FOMC released on Wednesday did not supported the falling euro. And the rising U.S. Treasury yields boosted the dollar. It rose to 1.3 percent and reflected the concern about the inflation while the economy recovery. The market bet on the reflation.
The positive outlook on the U.S. economy than the EU's devalued the euro.
Meanwhile, BD Swiss Group have thought the bearish dollar. The market continues the rally and Fed won't change its monetary policy, and a MUFG analyst expects, the greenback would be bearish for some weeks.
But the analysts at Danske Bank anticipated EUR/USD at 1.22 in the first quarter and looked for a decline to 1.16 in the year. Because the U.S. economy growth will be better than that in Euro zone, it make the euro down for a year.
EUR/USD thus faces structural decline due to a lack of competitiveness. A valuation reversal (lower EUR/USD) could come from rising US real rates, fading EU optimism, or Chinese slowdown, Danske Bank analysts have said.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Tuesday, 16 February 2021
[EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0217
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2021 0213
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0209
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market.
The currency pair EUR/USD plunged in last New York session. Rising euro turned the trend suddenly and dived. The euro fell 0.16 percent to 1.2131 in the New York session. As Asian session begins, it keeps the downward momentum.
The pair failed to break through the downward trend line and dived from the upper band to the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. It has slid along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands.
The euro oscillates without a explicit trend around 20 Moving Average in the daily chart though the correction.
It seems to continue the correction and it is expected to rebound when Europe session begins.
The price of the pair is 1.2087 as of 01:31 (GMT).
The traders need to watch the euro whether it break through the bearish trend line clearly which shows the next step.
Dollar rose though the risk-on sentiment. It is analysed, the market participants think the global economy moves out of the deflation to the reflation. And the US Treasury yields surged due to the expectation of reflation.
The US 10-y Treasury yields rose to 1.2 percent and the yields of 30-y broke through 2.0 percent.
The market participants expect the fiscal stimulus package suggested by the U.S. President Joe Biden will pass without the adjustment and the U.S. economy recovers quickly.
The officials of Fed have confirmed the easing monetary policies supporting the expectation of economy recovery.
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment released yesterday hit 71.2. It was anticipated 59.7 and was 61.8 last month. It shows the recovery in Germany leading EU economy and it is positive to euro.
And the crude-oil price rose as the cold wave hit Texas. The WTI price exceeded 60 dollars.
Meanwhile, BD Swiss Group have thought the bearish dollar. The market continues the rally and Fed won't change its monetary policy, and a MUFG analyst expects, the greenback would be bearish for some weeks.
But the analysts at Danske Bank anticipated EUR/USD at 1.22 in the first quarter and looked for a decline to 1.16 in the year. Because the U.S. economy growth will be better than that in Euro zone, it make the euro down for a year.
EUR/USD thus faces structural decline due to a lack of competitiveness. A valuation reversal (lower EUR/USD) could come from rising US real rates, fading EU optimism, or Chinese slowdown, Danske Bank analysts have said.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
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Friday, 12 February 2021
[EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2021 0213
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0209
cf. [EUR] 반등에 성공한 유로 2021 0206 https://youtu.be/tIZmzzdzRA8
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market.
The currency pair EUR/USD retreated but it rebounded again, Friday. It is under the downward trend line yet and on the 20 Moving Average line in the four-hour chart.
It seems to try to break through the bearish trend line again and fluctuate in Bollinger Bands in the daily chart, in the next week. Then the market participants can anticipate the fluctuation of the pair ranging from 1.1960 to 1.2200.
This bullish dollar is analysed to be the return against the rapid correction of the greenback.
The forecast of the U.S. fiscal stimulus package isn't accord. Some analysts think it will help the U.S. economy and the bullish greenback. The others anticipate the bearish dollar.
The huge package will boost the US economy recovery relatively and it will help the bullish greenback, some analysts think. The others think, the fiscal stimulus will help the global reflation and the risk-off currencies rise against the dollar.
BD Swiss Group guess the bearish dollar. The market continues the rally and Fed won't change its monetary policy, Yonhap Infomax reported citing BD Swiss Group.
A MUFG analyst expected, the greenback would be bearish for some weeks. The U.S. President Biden's plan and the continuous QE policy by Fed support the dollar short, he said.
But the analysts at Danske Bank forecast EUR/USD at 1.22 in one to three months and look for a decline to 1.16 in a year. Because the U.S. economy growth will be better than that in Eurozone, it make the euro down for twelve months.
EUR/USD thus faces structural decline due to a lack of competitiveness. A valuation reversal (lower EUR/USD) could come from rising US real rates, fading EU optimism, or Chinese slowdown, Danske Bank said.
Meanwhile the European Central Bank President Lagarde has stated, ECB's preferred tool was the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP), which differed from the ECB’s other asset purchase programs, meaning that the euro will be hamstrung for the foreseeable future.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Wednesday, 10 February 2021
[JPY] Rising Yen, Falling Dollar 2021 0211
 |
| USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
Tuesday, 9 February 2021
Monday, 8 February 2021
[EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0209
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] 반등에 성공한 유로 2021 0206 https://youtu.be/tIZmzzdzRA8
cf. [EUR] Retreating EURO 2021 0205
cf. [EUR] Plunged Euro 2021 0203
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market and holds the loss.
The dropping EUR/USD rebounded last week, but it retreated again as the week begins. When New York session began, the currency pair succeeded to rebound amplifing the volatility on Monday.
It formed the V pattern, rapid trend-turning pattern in the four-hour chart and rises in Asian session. It gives the hint of rebounding after being supported on 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart. And the traders could expect the pair will exceed 20 moving average in the daily chart and 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart simultaneously.
If euro breaks through the 20 Moving Average in the daily chart, it is expected that EUR/USD gains and the bullish trend will be hold in the short term. The price of the pair is 1.2076 and 20 MA is on 1.2106 as of 02:50(GMT).
The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the currency basket of the six major currencies dropped 0.05 percent to 90.937.
It is analysed, some speculators liquidated the short positions of the dollar and the market participants felt the risk-on sentiment expecting the U.S. fiscal stimulus would be done quickly. And it made dollar up and down on Monday.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated the need to pass a 1.9 trillion dollar in fiscal stimulus package, and argued that passage of the stimulus could promote strong enough growth for the United States to return to full employment next year.
The risk-on sentiment rose as Blue Wave passed the bill for the fiscal stimulus package last week.
Though euro rebounds , the economy in Euro zone isn't satisfactory. The concern of double dip rises among the market participants.
The disaccord between euro and the economy state makes the investors hesitate to buy euro.
The re-proliferation of the pandemic in Euro zone and the slow speed of the anti-virus vaccination disturb the recovery of the economy in Euro zone.
Investors are concerned that the vaccinations began in late December and that the roll-out has been complicated across the region.
Meanwhile, IMF, International Monetary Fund recently lowered its growth expectations for the euro area in 2021 and preliminary reading pointed to an annual Gross Domestic Product contraction of 6.8% for the euro area in 2020.
President Lagarde has stated “our commitment to the euro has no limits,” adding, “our preferred tool is the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP), which differs from the ECB’s other asset purchase programs,” meaning that the euro will be hamstrung for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. economy daily, Wall Street Journal reported it was uncertain the economy in Euro zone would recover shortly, and the result of the vaccination would be the variation of the recovery in Euro zone.
The average vaccination rate in major EU countries is just 3 percent less than ten percent in US and 17 percent in England.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Friday, 5 February 2021
Thursday, 4 February 2021
[EUR] Retreating EURO 2021 0205
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Plunged Euro 2021 0203
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market and holds the loss.
The currency pair EUR/USD fell forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the daily chart. The traders need to keep in mind, the price may retreat to 1.1925, 120 exponential moving average and 1.1874, support band in the daily chart. It is 1.1954 as of 04:00 (GMT).
The dollar's rally seems to be temporary. The main consensus in the market is still bearish dollar, and Gjallarhorn analyses euro to be bought after the rebound.
The dollar rose hitting two month high to 1.1956 Thursday. The Dollar index tracking dollar against the six major-currencies basket rose 0.46%% to 91.53.
As the market participants expected the U.S. economy would recover more quickly but Eurozone economy might fall into the double dip, the greenback hit the two month high. Euro plunged below 1.20 since last December.
The unemployment claims which was 770 thousands less than the market's expectation supported the U.S. dollar, too. The Wall Street forecasted 830-thousand increasing.
Yonhap Infomax reported, the expectation of U.S. fiscal stimulus package progress speeding up supported the dollar.
The House of Representative pass the stimulus package and it is expected the Senators process it in the week, too.
The materials of fiscal stimulus have supported euro since the pandemic. It remind us, the news of the agreement of the fiscal stimulus being failed while the meeting between President, Joe Biden and GOP senators supported the greenback.
Whatever the news, the dollar has rallied recently.
And Charles Evans, governor of Chicago Federal Bank said, hyper-easing monetary policy needed to be maintained while predicting that the economy will rebound rapidly this year.
The strategists look the risk of falling euro in the short term still remains due to the slow speed of the anti-COVID-19 vaccine injection, Yonhap Infomax reported.
And Bank of America said return to focus on fundamentals including relative rates in FX markets will likely support the dollar through the year amid a pick-up U.S. government bond yields, Investing.com reported.
But some analysts think the bullish greenback will be temporary. Investimg.com reported, this dollar's rally was nothing more than "noise" and would eventually fade as U.S. Treasury yields are set to run out of steam, citing Citi Bank's comment.
The Non-Farm Payrolls is released on Friday. It may lead the direction of euro in the short term.
------------------------------------------
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Tuesday, 2 February 2021
[EUR] Plunged Euro 2021 0203
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] 조정을 겪은 유로 2021 0202
cf. [EUR] Sidling EUR 2021 0201
cf. [EUR] 여전히 갈림길에 선 유로화 2021 0129
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0128
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market.
The currency pair EUR/USD has slipped below 1.2050, falling to the lowest levels since early December.
As the anticipation of the injection of anti-COVID-19 vaccine and the economy recovery in the United States may be completed faster than that in Eurozone, was supported, euro plunged. The euro barely succeeded in rebound at the end of New York session.
The Dollar Index tracking dollar against the currency basket composed of major six currencies rose 0.06 percent to 91.091.
The possible extension of lockdown in some Europe countries lowered euro to the bottom in two months. The market is concerned the more negative growth in Eurozone in the first quarter.
But the euro could rebound due to the market's consensus of less effectiveness of the possible negative benchmark interest rate.
The economy news agency, Yonhap Infomax reported, the short covering of short-position raised the dollar.
The President, Joe Biden met GOP senators but failed to reach the deal of the fiscal stimulus package. The news supported the greenback, too.
But a lot of market participants thought the recent bullish greenback was just the correction of falling dollar index which fell seven percent in last year, Yonhap Infomax reported.
Meanwhile IMF, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the 5.5 percent growth of the world economy in the year with the World Economic Outlook Report. It was adjusted 0.3 percent point up than the 5.2 percent of the expectation in last October. IMF anticipated the vaccine injection against COVID-19 would help the economy recovery.
The currency pair forms the V pattern which shows the rapid trend-turning pattern in the one-hour chart. The price of 1.2050s failed to support euro and the price of 1.20xx was tested as a support price band.
Whatever euro's trend line, euro has the minimal margin of rising to 1.2085 which is 20 moving average in the four-hour chart in the short term.
There is the possibility of forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the daily chart and the weekly chart. The possible pattern is made below the bearish trend line and it supports the price of the pair may be on the bearish trend. It is not coincident with the market's expectation.
The investors may be stand on the cross road again with the incongruity between the technical analysis and the market's consensus.
Gjallarhorn hopes the bullish euro.
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