[EUR] Safe-haven Dollar 2022 0301

 

 

cf. [EUR] Putin’s Attack on Ukraine 2022 0224

cf. [EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

It’s not really important to analyze the market technically because the markets only move by the geopolitical risk, the Russia’s invasion to Ukraine. The war in Ukraine renders the technical analysis obsolete.

 

The safe-haven dollar and yen rise and risk-on currencies retreat.

 

The Dollar Index rose to 96.765 on Monday.

 

The Russia’s invasion to Ukraine threw the finance markets into disorder. The invasion has made the volatile markets. The safe-haven asset and the crude oil price surged.

 

The risk-averse sentiment dominates the Forex market as Moscow warned the nuclear weapon.

 

Instead of the military response, the United States and the western countries use the economic sanction such as the expulsion of Russian banks from the SWIFT code. They agreed to expel Russia from SWIFT. The SWIFT is the international network which more 11 thousands banks and finance organizations use.

 

The Russian Rouble plummeted 30 percent. And Russian Central Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent to stabilize the rouble.

 

The U.S. bond yield dropped showing the risk-off sentiment. The yield of 10-year Treasury Bond fell 10 bp to 1.868 percent for a while, Monday.

 

The one of the safe-haven asset, Japanese Yen rose.

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[EUR] Putin’s Attack on Ukraine 2022 0224

cf. [EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

Vladimir Putin has declared the special military operation in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.

 

The news medias reported the Russia would attack on Donbas but Putin denied the occupation.

 

Putin approved the operation while UN Security Council meeting, and he commanded the arrangement of so-called the peacekeeping forces by Russia troops on Donbas on Tuesday.

 

As the report of Putin’s command is released in the early morning Thursday (GMT), the Dollar Index began to surge. The Dollar Index rose 0.12 percent to 96.206 on Wednesday.

 

The euro sank to a three-week low to the safe-haven dollar on Thursday while riskier commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar weakened amid intensifying fears that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

 

 

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If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

 

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[EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 cf. [EUR] Bearish Bias on EUR 2022 0213

cf. [EUR] Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in Bollinger Bands and retreated as the geopolitical risk rose at the end of the last week.

 

The pair began to drop along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. And it left a long head candle. They imply the more retreat in the week. It may fall to 1.1283, the price level before the ECB president’s press conference.

 

The euro fluctuated between the upper band and the bottom band about a week then it fell along the bottom band against the dollar in the one-hour chart as the week ended.

 

The euro failed to exceed the 20 moving average in the weekly chart after surge three weeks ago. It stepped down against the dollar for the continuous two weeks. It seems the euro may fall to the long-term trend line, 1.1230s. And it can retreat to 1.1177, the price in June 2020.

 

The geopolitical risk in Ukraine called the risk-off sentiment. And the over-night risk made the greenback rise last week, the one of the safe-haven Japanese yen fell though.

 

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the six peers rose to 96.099 or 0.04 percent last week.

 

Tony Blinken, the Secretary of State said, he would talk with his counterpart Sergey Lavrov in the week if Russia didn’t invade Ukraine.

 

Though Russia claimed its withdrawal after the drill, the United States and Europe countries assume that the Russian troops are increased. They estimate there are some 150thousand troops around the Ukraine .

 

Charles Evans, the president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago spoke the Fed should hike the interest rate but might restrain the additional tightening policy if the inflation risk was eased. He added the present monetary policy was incorrect and needed to be revised at the annual monetary policy forum.

 

John Williams, the president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York said he supported the interest rate hike in March. He said, the Fed had adjusted the monetary-policy stance, and finished the tapering the first and the rate hike next.

 

The market participants are convinced the Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March. The members of FOMC show their hawkish stance explicitly.

 

The FOMC member and the St. Louis Federal Reserve president, James Bullard has emphasized he preferred 10 bp rate hike till July. He also spoke the Fed should respond to the inflation recorded high in 40 years.

------------------------------------------

 

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

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You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

 

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

 

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[EUR] Bearish Bias on EUR 2022 0213

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202

cf. [EUR] Falling EURO 2022 0126

cf. [EUR] Hawkish Fed and the Bullish Dollar 2022 0119

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD which has fluctuated in two long-term trend lines retreated around the 20 moving average in the weekly chart last week. The pair reached the 20 MA two weeks ago, and gave the clue of rebound of the euro.

 

The euro rose to the 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart, it failed to exceed the line and the downward trend line though. It sank to the 20 moving average again in the daily chart.

 

The currency pair slid along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. It makes the investors to think the price continue to retreat in the short-and-midterm.

 

Gjallarhorn thinks the price can fall to 1.1283s, the price before the ECB’s press conference in the month and to the mixed price band.

 

It is also able to sink 1.1131 recording low in the quarter.

 

The investors can think the upward trend line supported the falling price of euro but it is tested as the support line again. It doesn’t seem the trend line to support the euro this time.

 

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the currency basket of the six peers rose 0.41 percent to 96.059. It edged higher 0.41 percent last week.

 

The euro plunged on last Friday as the ECB president Christine Lagarde supported the ECB’s dovish stance.

 

The ECB president Christine Lagarde warned if the ECB rushed to tighten the monetary policy, it could choke the economy recovery.

 

She added all action should be done step by step.

 

The market still expects that the ECB will hike the rate 10 bp till June and 50 bp till this year.

 

The market participants are convinced the Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March. The members of FOMC show their hawkish stance explicitly.

 

The FOMC member and the St. Louis Federal Reserve president, James Bullard emphasized he preferred 10 bp rate hike till July. He also spoke the Fed should respond to the inflation recorded high in 40 years.

 

The geopolitical risk in Ukraine recalled the risk-averse sentiment. The conflict risk between the United States and Russia in Ukraine boosted the dollar as well as the prices of commodities.

 

The U.S. authorities warned their citizens to leave Ukraine in 48 hours and they spoke Russia would invade Ukraine on Wednesday, Feb. 16.

 

Though Russia President Putin’s denial, the tension of the conflict rises.

 

The summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin by phone was held on February 12, they didn’t get the meaningful result though.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

 

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

 

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

 

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com.

 

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 모처럼 반등한 유로 2022 0206

[EUR] Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Falling EURO 2022 0126

cf. [EUR] Hawkish Fed and the Bullish Dollar 2022 0119

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD rebounded forming the V pattern in the four-hour chart since January 28. The pair fluctuates after V pattern. If the pair continues to edge high, the dollar is under the correction of 50 percent retreat of Fibonacci.

 

It seems the pair may edge high to 120 exponential moving average, 1.1290 in the four-hour chart, and enter the correction term.

 

The chart has confirmed the currency pair has been supported on the long-term upward trend line again. It sank under the line but succeeded to float up the trend line.

 

As the currency pair EUR/USD rebounds, it enters the mixed price zone again. It isn’t easy to break through the zone at once. The price of the pair seems to return to 1.1140s.

 

The steep falling of the euro could rebound due to the reacting against the surging greenback. The dollar in the correction retreated some 38.2 percent in Fibonacci.

 

The hawkish Fed stance led the rally, but the investors thought dollar rose too much in the short term. And the surge of NASDAQ called the risk-on sentiment.

 

The Fed toned down. Patrick Harker, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia spoke Fed wouldn’t hike the rate 50bp after FOMC meeting in March. He supported 25-bp hike but spoke that the 50bp hike might be possible while the surging inflation.

 

The expectation of the possible ECB’s hawkish act and the inflation in Euro zone supported the euro. The Dollar Index which measures the dollar retreated 0.35 percent to 96.282 on Tuesday.

 

There is still the momentum of the dollar’s rally. The market expects the Fed will hike the benchmark interest rate five times in the year. And they anticipate 25-bp hike in March and to 1.0 percent by the year.

 

And the investors need to watch the rising geopolitical risk in Ukraine, too. It may call the risk-averse sentiment.

 

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

 

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

 

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

 

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com.

 

Thank you.

 

 

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Telegram - @morgenluft

Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/

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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD