[EUR] Unstable Wedge Pattern

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source forexfactory.com

After the plunge due to the Brexit referendum, currency pair EUR/USD raises its bottoms as though it prepares rebound. But it seems to form a wedge. It is needed to be watch the market more carefully.

As I have said, the economic situation precedes the technical analysis. The realized Brexit makes the market unstable and uncertain. Though Europe finished Tuesday with bullish market, it doesn't confirm that the confusion diminished. And the wedge pattern in the chart shows the uncertainty. The price can rise and go down. In the uncertain market circumstance and economic situation, the unstable wedge pattern, what do we do?

Someone gets great profit in the confusion. Hedge trader, George Soros is known to get some hundred-million-dollar profit betting short position in Deutche Bank. He has conquered Bank of England betting short position against British Pound. But most of us is not excellant trader. Most of us doesn't have the great insight on the market as him. We trade by the probability and the risk management. The legendary traders, turtles didn't have the insight but traded with boring rules and risk magement such as loss cut. Ordinary traders should follow the oridnary rules, I think. Just watch the market when the uncertain market.

It is meaningless the up-or-down trend is forecasted, because the shock of Brexit doesn't disappear yet. Because the fundamental analysis precedes the technical analysis.

http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/35

[EUR] After Brexit

EUR/USD 4-HOUR CHART, SOURCE: FOREXFACTORY.COM

 The unexpected event happened. I want to tell just watching the market. It may hurt traders entering the market in this week. I have thought English people are conservative and reluctant to do racial decision. But my bias is determined incorrect.

It's not certain where the markets go yet. After the plunge of major currencies agaist U.S. Dollar, they attempt to return but it's not reliable. The returning attempt is the characteristic of currency not the reversal toward uptrend.

The market situation precedes the technical analysis. We don't know participants consensus yet, we need to just watch the charts. Because we entere the market to get profit not to be famous.

EUR/USD WEEKLY CHART, SOURCE: FOREXFACTORY.COM

[EUR] Long Bias in EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

Since June 16, one of the major currency pairs, EUR/USD made V pattern and keeps rising.. Beginning of the week the currency pair made a gap and rose. It is under the adjustment now.

The gap is filled in ordinary cases, and the gap on Monday is going to be filled. Euro hardly moves in rapid speed.

In the weekly chart, Euro keeps a mild upward trend to U.S. Dollar, it is eligible to keep a long bias against Dollar, I think.

In this week, however, we need to look at the political situation in England holding the referendum on Thursday than analyse the chart. Some news from Britain say more people hope to remain in EU since the terrible accident but nobody knows the result.

http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/33

[JPY] Strong Yen Eligible?

JPY/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

The market has been in the fog due to the English referendum whether remain in European Union. The prices of major currency pairs rushed into the safety asset, U.S. Dollar. But the news of accident from Britain turned the situation. After the News, the trend of prices turned to reverse side and they meet another week in which the referendum held.

Japanese Yen is evaluated as the safety asset with U.S. Dollar. But in this case the market seems to be interested in only long or short of Greenbacks. If British decides to remain in EU, U.S. Dollar declines and Japanese Yen rises respectively. Euro and Sterling surge, when Greenback plunges.

Recent poll shows the number of remain hold a dominant position than that of leave. And England choose its future on Thursday.

http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/32

[EUR] EURO under the Brexit Campaign

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

Rapid trend-turn pattern, V pattern appeared and currency pair EUR/USD keeps rising. This pattern shows a rapid turn but it fails the completion of the trend turn occasionally than Heand-and-Shoulder pattern and Double-Tops pattern.

Does it rise or fall, then? I think it's meaningless to find the answer. This pattern was made by the political news in England. and we have no measurement on the sudden accident. The accident made the participants think the England's remain in EU and the price surged. But the uncertainty is not cleared as ever, nothing is changed, though the accident.

Euro has declinced till it recorded lowest price in year and the lowest price was checked as the supporting price line. Whether English choose, the price will not fall under 1.1100. Now, we need to the news from England than analyse the bottom-rising trend line and take a break.

If not clear, don't enter the market. I want to speak.

You can read the story in http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/31

[GBP] Brexit Risk Presses Sterling

GBP/USD weekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

One of the major currency pair GBP/USD declines this week. Early the week Sterling made the downturn pattern, double-tops pattern and slipped through the week. Brexit risk is heavy burden on Pound, now. On June 23, British people choose whether remain in European Union or not with the referendum. Until the decision is appeared, Pound seems to be under the decline risk.

In late the week, greenbacks turned upside and major currencies' prices declined against U.S. Dollar. Pound, too. But the risk of Brexit intensifies the margin of fall.

Technically weekly chart tells Pound is under the technical revision and support the upward trend line. Though it fell all the week, it has the sufficient margin of rebound.

But dealing Pound is looked inappropriate till the British people's choice.

source: http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/29

[EUR] After the Adjustment, Rally Goes On?

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

The surged Euro in last week is under the adjustment in a week. In 1-hour chart it made a mild-forming double-tops pattern and declined. But it doesn't seem to keep strong US Dollar.

In the case of currency pair EUR/USD, it moves step by step. It hardly surge and dive. Once it rockets, it moves back and steps a ordinary process, in case of the plunge, too.

After the rise in last week, Euro hesitate the step-down process. I expected it steps down till 1.1220 or higher. But it revised late week in the end. Though it declines it will be supported on some 1.1220s price band, I guess. And the upward trend line in 4-hour chart will support the price of the currency pair.

It is read at http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/28, too.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

Measuring Strength of Market and Tokyo

USD/JPY 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

 Currency pair USD/JPY charts interest traders, the patterns in the weekly chart and in 4-hour chart. In 4-hour chart the price made the turndown, double-tops pattern in late May and dropped and it attempts to build the reverse double-tops, that is, double-bottoms patterns after the decline. It seems to complete the pattern and the price goes high again.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

 In the weekly chart, the currency pair has repeated the pattern of rapid diving and recovering for weeks. The dropping the last week, the recovering this week, too. It makes 105 price band supporting price band and attempts to rise again.

The features in the charts make the market participants such as traders expect the advance for a while, even in mid term. We get the long positions? It needs the guess.

The gain of the price means strong U.S. Dollar in USD/JPY chart. And weak Japanese Yen. But the other currency pair charts tells another story. After the disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls, greenbacks declined against the major currencies including Japanese Yen. In this week USD keeps traders in short bias, then USD/JPY? JPY should gain against the greenback and the attempt of rising should fail and failed to build the double-bottoms pattern in 4-hour chart.

Tokyo tries to stimulate its economy via weak JPY. The rising price in this chart reflect Tokyo's mind and wish. But the market doesn't move as they wish. Tokyo measures its strength with the market. Our interest is not who wins but how we response.

USD/JPY weekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

You can read the story http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/27 , too.

Long Bias Available yet

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com After the U.S. non-farm employment changes shown, Euro is on Long Position against U.S. Dollar. Shocking news on the payroll signaled Fed would not raise the benchmark rate at least this month. The moving in the channel seems unstable before the surge or the plunge and the currency pair EUR/USD may take the adjustment though it rises high. EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com The price band from 1.1220 to 1.1240 has acted as the resistance price band before and it will be the support band this time. That is, the currency pair price is adjusted till the band and rebound again. If long position gained, loss cut is set below the price band. News is positive to Euro, too. Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair signaled Fed wouldn't raise the Federal Fund Rate this month but it would be raised gradually. She indicated on Monday that the U.S. central bank won’t be raising interest rates until uncertainty over the economic outlook is resolved. http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/26

Sterling Bridges the Gap

GBP/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com
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The Sterling began this week with gap. It plunged after the gap and tried the gap but failed on Monday. Its try succeeded bridging the gap and turned the direction.
 GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

The gap at the begining of the week and the bridge are due to the British news, Brexit. British people hold the referendum whether exit from European Union on June 23. Most has thought the people choose the remain but as the time comes, the forecast falls into the confused state. Recent news of poll about the campaign showing negative was released and it lead the decline of Pound against the major currencies. And the Times pressed the support of remaining in EU kept the narrow lead over the leaving, it raised Pound over 1 percent against US Dollar. If the news of remaining in EU more, the rising of Pound more.

Before the chart analysis, we need to read the news of Brexit till 23th.

Upward Trend in Short-Term

GBP/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

One of the major currency pair, GBP/USD rose after the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls, too. Declining Pound after completing Head-and-Shoulder Pattern, built the upturn, double-bottoms pattern and succeeded the rebounding in four-hour chart. It can be guessed the upward trend.

But British Pound is more volatile than Euro, it surges and dives sharply. And it has some difficulty of simple long bias.

GBP/USD weekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

The weekly chart shows two possiblities of long and short. Since this year, currency pair GBP/USD forms the trend-turn pattern, Reverse Head-and-Shoulder Pattern. It gives the signal of rebounding Pound against U.S. Dollar. But it looks 'edge pattern after falling'. It gives the probability of additional decline.

The technical analysis gives the confused signals, and we need to look at the economic situation. Whether U.S. Federal Reserved System raises its Federal Fund Rate, non-farm payrolls increases or not. And England holds the referendum on Brexit, England's exit from European Union though its probablity isn't high.

You can read this story http://cafe.naver.com/heimdallr999/23, too.

Bias Arrangement

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

Since Fall in 2008, the bad news of economic events have led the strong U.S. Dollar and the rising gold price evaluated the safety asset. The depressed economic circumstance made the market participants believe only the greenback and gold. Last Friday the powerfuld event, U.S. Non-farm employment changes shocked the market recording the low in five years. It showed 38,000 increase of job less than 16 thousand slots of the market consensus. Diffrently the ordinary reaction, the price rocketed breaking the prior tops and kept the upward situation in last week.

Major currency Euro hardly steps the rapid price change, it moves step by step. And in this week the price may process the some adjustment but it keeps the new trend.

 EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

Our focus is why it surged. My opinion is it is linked the Fed's decision of Federal Fund Rate. The disappointed news makes the FOMC mebers decide the freeze of its benchmark rate in June. The market expects the U.S. benchmark rate unchanged to 0.5 percent in this month. It may be risen in September, economists think.

And advanced unployment rate was not good signal. It recorded 4.7 percent less than the expectation value of 4.9 percent and it is less than prior value of five percent. But it is due to the increasing of irregular jobs slot such as part-time work. The news of unemployment rate meant the depressed U.S. economy.

Now, the simple reaction of bad news leading the strong U.S. Dollar should be changed.

EUR/USD weekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

The technical analysis anticipates the Euro rising against Dollar. In the weekly chart, there are two bottoms in May and November. During the downward trend, Euro made the two bottoms and it built the double-bottoms pattern. Since last November the price has bottoms gradually. In last week the currency pair EUR/USD took some adjustment but didn't break the support line and succeeded the rebounding due to the Non-farm payrolls in the United States.

In four-hour chart, the pair EUR/USD broke through the downward trend line and succeeded to make the line the support line. And it surged then. Though there may be the adjustment but it keeps the another trend. After the signal from Fed, the direction of the price will be clear.

You can read the story in http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/23

Lowest Index of Non-farm Employment Changes in Five Years And Dollar

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

 The powerful index, U.S. non-farm employment changes recorded lowest in five years at 1200(GMT), announcing increase of 38,000. The market consensus was increase of 160 thousands. The bad result than market consensus affected the currency pair EUR/USD strongly. In the pair, Greenback plunged and Euro surged. Non-farm Index is one of the most effective events on foreign exchange market and it stimulated the momentum in the market.

And the other index of U.S. unemployment rate recorded 4.7 percent, lower than that of expectation. Participants forecasted 4.9 percent.

And I acknowledge my analysis was failed. I expected the weak Euro against U.S. Dollar by the double-tops pattern in one-hour chart and Euro is supported at 1.11 marked the bottom last month.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

The moment of non-farm index spoken, Euro surged high. Not rising but also breaking through the downward line in a breath. By the experience, it may not return though the adjustment. If it keeps the downward trend, it may be step down inch by inch.

We need to watch the direction of greenback now. Since the global finance crisis, this bad news has provoked the strong Dollar. Participants concluded that only Dollar is believed. If such a result is announced, it was natural not Dollar's decline but Euro's diving.

Now we need to consider the another opportunity not just Dollar Long at unexpected economic index.

Pressure to Down Again, EURO

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

The major currency Euro falls against US Dollar. EUR/USD makes the typical turn-down pattern, double-tops pattern in 1-hour chart and it seems to keep its decline for a while.

In 4-hour chart, the price shows the adjustment after its rising. It has broken through the downward trend line already, it needs to watch whether the line acts the support line or not. But the feature of the Euro currency has shown that it doesn't fall rapidly and surge with rocket velocity, and there is the more possibility of falling under the downward trend line not overcoming.

Due to this adjustment in the four-hour chart, the resistance line was built at the price of 1.12 band. It seems there are some tries of break through the resistance line of 1.12. Once the line is broken through, the price band 1.12 may be a support line but the recent economic circumstance makes the price band the strong top, I guess.


Besides the technical analysis, we need to watch the news of ECB, European Central Bank's decision to freeze its Minimum Bid Rate at 1145(GMT), Thursday. ECB keeps its benchmark rate, zero percent to stimulate the Euro zone economy and it didn't destroy the market's expectation of freezing the rate. Therefore the currency pair EUR/USD rolled in a flash but it built the downward patter in one-hour chart. Though the event of the benchmark rate by the central bank is the most powerful affect to the its currency, but the fact of this event failed the impact makes the guess of bank's weaken influence on the market.

Meanwhile EUR/USD pair has checked its trough at 1.11. Though U.S. Fed raises Federal Fund Rate, it seems not to fall under price 1.11 except the temporary collapse.

In mid-term the price moves up and down between 1.11 and 1.12, I think.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

Euro Rises to 1.1178, But Turns the Direction?

EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart, source: forexfactory.com

The major currency pair EUR/USD attempted the rebound since this week. And it rose to 1.1178 in London session. It broke through the short-term downward trend line made in early May.

But it is not uncertain it turned the trend, yet. U.S Dollar stood on the short position in London session against the major currencies such as Euro and Japanese Yen. The Sterling fell against greenback exceptionally.

In EUR/USD chart, it seems that the price of 1.12 comes into the resistance line. If the price broken through the trend line, breaks the resistance line 1.1200 again, the price may be on the upward line.

But FOMC is held on 14th to 15th in this month. The Fed hinted the raise of it bench mark rate. Till the speak of FOMC about the Federal Fund Rate, the price seems not to decide the its trend.

This story is read in http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/19, too.