Bias Arrangement

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

Since Fall in 2008, the bad news of economic events have led the strong U.S. Dollar and the rising gold price evaluated the safety asset. The depressed economic circumstance made the market participants believe only the greenback and gold. Last Friday the powerfuld event, U.S. Non-farm employment changes shocked the market recording the low in five years. It showed 38,000 increase of job less than 16 thousand slots of the market consensus. Diffrently the ordinary reaction, the price rocketed breaking the prior tops and kept the upward situation in last week.

Major currency Euro hardly steps the rapid price change, it moves step by step. And in this week the price may process the some adjustment but it keeps the new trend.

 EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

Our focus is why it surged. My opinion is it is linked the Fed's decision of Federal Fund Rate. The disappointed news makes the FOMC mebers decide the freeze of its benchmark rate in June. The market expects the U.S. benchmark rate unchanged to 0.5 percent in this month. It may be risen in September, economists think.

And advanced unployment rate was not good signal. It recorded 4.7 percent less than the expectation value of 4.9 percent and it is less than prior value of five percent. But it is due to the increasing of irregular jobs slot such as part-time work. The news of unemployment rate meant the depressed U.S. economy.

Now, the simple reaction of bad news leading the strong U.S. Dollar should be changed.

EUR/USD weekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

The technical analysis anticipates the Euro rising against Dollar. In the weekly chart, there are two bottoms in May and November. During the downward trend, Euro made the two bottoms and it built the double-bottoms pattern. Since last November the price has bottoms gradually. In last week the currency pair EUR/USD took some adjustment but didn't break the support line and succeeded the rebounding due to the Non-farm payrolls in the United States.

In four-hour chart, the pair EUR/USD broke through the downward trend line and succeeded to make the line the support line. And it surged then. Though there may be the adjustment but it keeps the another trend. After the signal from Fed, the direction of the price will be clear.

You can read the story in http://cafe.naver.com/gjallarhorn/23