[EUR] Long Bias and Fed's Decision 2018 0923

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Before Fed's Decision 2018 0916

I have kept the short bias to EUR/USD, one of the major currency pair. But I should concede my view on the market is incorrect and change the bias.

I thought the chart would make the pattern of price-down, Head-and-Shoulders, but the price continued to rise. The trend line since mid-September supports the long position.

Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC release the U.S. benchmark rate on Sept. 26 and the statement on economy. The market expects FOMC may raise its Federal Funds Rate to 2.25 percent. It may give the power to SHORT bias to EUR/USD.  It doesn't agree to recent rising.

I revise my view on the market that the price will meet the adjustment while FOMC's events but the price of the pair will keep the upward trend.

What bias you support, I recommend that the trading halt when the U.S. benchmark rate is released. The adjustment size may hurt your account and capital.

I emphasize the money management than chart analysis and the big event is not available trading time.


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[EUR] Before Fed's Decision 2018 0916

EUR/USD one-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC release the U.S. benchmark rate on Sept. 26 and the market expects FOMC may raise its Federal Funds Rate. The SHORT bias to EUR/USD, one of the major currency pair, is still available I think. And the price of euro fell in spot and futures at the end of the last week.

And I should confess that I spoiled my trading of euro futures last week. I have kept the short bias to euro and got the short. I thought the price would fell continuously but the price began to rebound. I expected the price fell again, but the price repeated walking sideways and rising. While ECB's press conference, it surged and my position faced the stop loss with big loss. The price went down again, leaving a huge loss.

If I kept the position active though the loss, I may get some profit at the trading. Should I do that? No. The bias is not very important than money management including the risk management. My insight may be correct or not.  It's not important. Trading records are filled with many win and many loss. The batting average of big hitter is not exceed 40 percent, winning rate is the second problem.

Instead of keeping my think, I should pay more attention to money management and risk management.

I'd like to tell euro short, dollar long. But I recommend to pay more attention to risk management.

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[EUR] Awaiting the Obvious Trend 2018 0905

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Before making the report, I think what position I will get in this situation. If I can't decide to get the long or the short position, I'll not be able to recommend a suitable position. I write the report but I'm a forex trader. If the chart  don't give the clear signal or patterns, traders can't get the position, and I can't produce the report recommending the deal.

The trend line in the currency pair EUR/USD doesn't shows the clear pattern yet. In the unclear market, the optimal decision is just to watch the market till finding out the obvious signal.

The daily chart of EUR/USD moves up and down in the bollinger band and the four-hour chart seems to endeavor to make the price-down pattern, Head-and-Shoulders pattern. The pattern isn't completed yet, there is always the possibility of the failure of the pattern making.

In the one-hour chart, price began to rise along upper band of bollinger band. The pattern in four-hour chart doesn't give the strong signal in the chart.

If you are an assertive trader, you can expect the strong greenback, weak euro, expecting the Head-and-Shoulders pattern. But it is needed just to watch the market in this week.

On Friday the impact Forex events are scheduled, America will release Non-farm employment change and unemployment rate. It may be comport to postpone the trading till the economy indices are released.

The Forex events and uncompleted pattern will determine the direction of the currency pair, I think.


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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR/USD, EUR, Euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로/달러, 유로화