Wednesday, 30 November 2022
Sunday, 27 November 2022
Sunday, 20 November 2022
[EUR] Euro in the Correction 2022 1121
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2022 1115
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has no position in Forex market and just watch the market now.
The rising currency pair EUR/USD retreated as the week began.
It fell to near the parity, supporting line. It seems that the euro recover the price above 1.0290 though the EUR/USD step down below the parity in the short term.
The pair may try to exceed 1.038x. It can keep the bullish trend if it succeeds. But the dollar gains if not.
Gjallarhorn thinks euro's fall might be restrained above 1.0090 while the dollar keeps the upward trend.
The euro broke through the 20 moving average at once and reached the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart.
The euro is in correction and retreats below the upper band. But we need to look the momentum which broke through the 20 moving average.
The dollar is still bullish. But its power isn't strong as it before. The euro saves the energy of surging.
The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against its six peers rose 0.61 percent for a week to 106.943 last week.
Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank supported the interest hike of the euro but it less effected. She spoke the inflation in Eurozone was high at a Europe banks meeting. But the euro wasn't supported sufficiently, last week.
The dollar was supported by the hawkish Fed members.
Susan M. Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said the giant step is on the table in the FOMC meeting in December.
James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has led the bullish dollar saying the U.S. benchmark interest rate should be kept on from five to seven percent.
Neel Kashkari, president of Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has spoken the Fed should hike the interest rate till the inflation definitely cease. He said the Fed's goal is to control the inflation, too.
The hawkish member of the Fed, Christoper Waller had spoken the Fed might hike 50 bp on December meeting or later supporting the hawkish stance at the UBS AG Conference in Sydney, Australia. He said the Fed's rate-hike weren't completed yet though the inflation pressure was eased somewhat.
He said, the interest rate would be kept high till the inflation reached the goal, 2 percent.
The FOMC meeting minutes is released on Wednesday. The market participants expect the Fed will lead the greenback this week.
But the dollar didn't rallied last week, as some participants analyse the inflation risk in the United States reached the peak. They expect the Fed might ease the tightening tension somewhat.
The PPI in October rose 0.2 percent below the expectation 0.4 percent. The CPI has risen seven percent. These releases supported the possibility of the Fed's tightening pace slowing.
But the U.S. bond yield was still bullish and supported the dollar.
The Forex watchers anticipate the bullish dollar due to the hawkish Fed members' stance.
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Monday, 14 November 2022
[EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2022 1115
cf. [EUR] The Pace Control of the Rate-hike 2022 1106
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has no position in Forex market and just watch the market now.
The surged euro last week fluctuates in the Bollinger Bands.
The currency pair EUR/USD jumped 4 bigs late week and sidles in the narrow channel as the week begins.
The pair broke through the 20 moving average at once and tries to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart.
The strong upward-moment may support the euro and it will not retreat below the parity.
The investors are able to get the long bias for the euro in the mid term. The euro is able to be bought while its correction.
But it doesn't mean the trend shift, yet. The inflation risk still presses the euro and the Fed still raises the benchmark interest rate. The investors can think the trend shift but aren't recommended to buy the euro.
The surged euro was in the correction Monday.
As the Fed tightened, the greenback recovered the bullish trend. The Fed warned the market against going too far and the U.S. bond yield rebounded. They supported the dollar.
The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the six peers basket rose 0.43 percent to 106.832.
The hawkish member of the Fed, Christoper Waller spoke the Fed might hike 50 bp on December meeting or later supporting the hawkish stance at the UBS AG Conference in Sydney, Australia. He said the Fed's rate-hike weren't completed yet though the inflation pressure was eased somewhat.
He said, the interest rate would be kept high till the inflation reached the goal, 2 percent.
Waller's comment supported the bond yield and the dollar. The yield of the 10-y Treasury Note rose 7bp to 3.89 percent for a while.
But Lael Brainard, the vice chair of the Fed spoke, the pace of interest-rate hike needed to be eased. The market experts thought, the Fed wouldn't stop the rate hike but would move away from the pace of four consecutive 75 basis points hikes.
The war in Ukraine affects the euro. The possibility of the peace agreement supports the euro, too.
A research header at Monex diagnosed, the traders bought the dollar due to the euro's surge and Fed members' hawkish statement. He added, the currency pair EUR/USD would be still bearish though ECB officials supported the euro's interest rate.
The CME FedWatch anticipate the Fed's rate-hike 50bp in December as 85.4 percent probability. It means that the market expects the big step not the giant step.
Meanwhile Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed supported the additional rate-hike and it was premature to discuss the rate-hike pause while the press conference after the FOMC.
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Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Saturday, 5 November 2022
[EUR] The Pace Control of the Rate-hike 2022 1106
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| The EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has no position in CME and just watch the market now.
The currency pair EUR/USD formed the Head-and-Shoulders pattern and was supported on around 0.9737. After forming the pattern, the currency pair rebounded and reached the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.
It is confirmed that the euro is supported on some 0.97s though it fluctuated under the parity.
The main trend is still bearish, the weekly chart of the euro hints the trend-shift though.
The EUR/USD weekly chart shows euro has become to rise and tried to shift the bullish trend.
It isn't available to comment the bullish but the euro may not sink more.
Gjallarhorn think the investors need to watch the weekly chart, too. The 20 moving average is explicit downward and the EUR/USD is still below the moving average, but it is expected euro's rise in some weeks.
The European Central Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate, the Main Refinancing Rate on October 27. It jumped 75bp to 2.00 percent.
The Dollar Index which tracks the greenback against its six peers basket rose 0.1 percent this week while its retreat 2.03 percent to 110.769 Friday.
The Dollar Index used to retreat to 110.688.
The Non-Farm Payrolls in October increased 261 thousands better than experts' expectation 205 thousand increase. It called the risk-on sentiment dropping the greenback. And the currency pair EUR/USD rose 2.24 percent to 0.99610.
The unemployment rate in October released on Friday was 3.7 percent worse than the previous 3.5 percent and the expectation 3.5 percent.
The Fed members have showed the hawkish stance. Jerome Powell, Fed Chair has confirmed the rate hike, and Christopher Waller, the Fed member has supported the significant hike in the benchmark interest rate.
Though the hawkish stance, it was in the market's expectation, and it didn't beat the Forex market.
The Fed member Neel Tushar Kashkari anticipated the benchmark interest rate would be hiked to 4.9 percent more. And he spoke the job market was strong. He is one of the hawkish members in Fed.
The Federal Reserve is still expected to keep the hike of the Federal Funds Rate, but some board members signal that the pace of the quantitative tightening is controlled,
Thomas Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond spoke the Fed shifted the step while the interview with the U.S. CNBC. He said, the Fed would brake sometimes while the benchmark-rate hike in the another step.
Barkin said the Fed's policy rate, which is currently between 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent, could eventually reach more than 5 percent.
Due to the risk-on, the euro rebounded on Friday. But the European Central Bank president, Chiristine Lagarde spoke the ECB wouldn't copy the Fed's actions though the ECB's watch to the Fed. Lagarde's comments devaluated the euro.
The U.S. daily New York Times reported the U.S. yield gave the clues of the Fed's interest-rate goal on Wednesday. The U.S. bond market provide the explicit signals of the interest rate and the economy outlook by the yield. Ahead of the Fed's benchmark rate hike, the yield in the bond market began to rise.
The 2-year bond yield recorded 4.6301 percent on Wednesday. The 10-yr Treasury Note yield already rose to some 1.5 percent last December.
And the current bond yield expects the recession.
Meanwhile Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed supported the additional rate-hike and it was premature to discuss the rate-hike pause while the press conference after the FOMC.
-----
Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
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