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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Falling EURO 2022 0126
cf. [EUR] Hawkish Fed and the Bullish
Dollar 2022 0119
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced
by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors
showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro.
The currency
pair EUR/USD rebounded forming the V pattern in the four-hour chart since
January 28. The pair fluctuates after V pattern. If the pair continues to edge
high, the dollar is under the correction of 50 percent retreat of Fibonacci.
It seems the
pair may edge high to 120 exponential moving average, 1.1290 in the four-hour
chart, and enter the correction term.
The chart
has confirmed the currency pair has been supported on the long-term upward
trend line again. It sank under the line but succeeded to float up the trend
line.
As the
currency pair EUR/USD rebounds, it enters the mixed price zone again. It isn’t
easy to break through the zone at once. The price of the pair seems to return
to 1.1140s.
The steep falling
of the euro could rebound due to the reacting against the surging greenback.
The dollar in the correction retreated some 38.2 percent in Fibonacci.
The hawkish
Fed stance led the rally, but the investors thought dollar rose too much in the
short term. And the surge of NASDAQ called the risk-on sentiment.
The Fed toned
down. Patrick Harker, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
spoke Fed wouldn’t hike the rate 50bp after FOMC meeting in March. He supported
25-bp hike but spoke that the 50bp hike might be possible while the surging
inflation.
The
expectation of the possible ECB’s hawkish act and the inflation in Euro zone
supported the euro. The Dollar Index which measures the dollar retreated 0.35
percent to 96.282 on Tuesday.
There is
still the momentum of the dollar’s rally. The market expects the Fed will hike
the benchmark interest rate five times in the year. And they anticipate 25-bp
hike in March and to 1.0 percent by the year.
And the investors
need to watch the rising geopolitical risk in Ukraine, too. It may call the
risk-averse sentiment.
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