[EUR] Rising Euro 2019 1212

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Awating Two Big Events 2019 1210
cf. [EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

Euro surges after FOMC's benchmark-rate freeze. Currency pair EUR/USD broke through 1.1100 and exceeded 1.1130, and futures item, euro fx-201912, 6EZ19's price shows 1.11445.

Euro is expected to rise and face downward trend line. It seems to exceed the trend line, above 1.1150x.

But it doesn't mean to change the bias. Euro could rise over the downward trend line and upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart, and currency pair eur/usd reaches 120 exponential moving average, 1.135xx.

But it is possible to retreat after facing the meaningful prices.

After FOMC meeting, dollar index, greenback's value against the basket of major six currencies, dropped 0.35 percent to 97.087, lowest level since last July.

FOMC froze the Federal Funds Rate 1.5 percent~1.75 percent and Fed supported the freeze of the benchmark rate for a long time though President Donald Trump has pressed Jerome Powell, Fed Chair to lower the benchmark rate. And it led dollar index to dive more.

Most of market participants expected the rate freeze. Members of FOMC hinted that the benchmark rate would be frozen in the next year, too.

U.S. President Trump gave the notice of the tariffs on Chinese consumer goods on December 15, but Chinese officials forecast the delaying. The expectation of the deal is uncertain, and it presses currencies' volatility.

There are still Forex big events. British snap election and ECB meeting are hold on Thursday, respectively. Deadline of U.S-Sino trade deal comes on Sunday, too.

We need to keep in mind ECB's currency policy of Quantitative Easing in next year. And we should listen to some analysts' careful expectation of weak greenback in next year, too. There are U.S. President election, the possibility of top two economy entities' deal and rebound of euro zone economy.

European Central Bank is likely to keep benchmark interest rate.

And the new President Christine Lagarde is likely to stress the need for more efforts on the fiscal front.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position now. The position would be gotten in next year.

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