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| EUR/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com |
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| GBP/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com |
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11174 on December 27, 2019. As this year goes end, the variation of the currency narrows.
Euro builds triangle pattern and it faces the right edge of triangle in the weekly chart. It shows that euro accumulates the momentum and will jump or plunge soon.
If it has rising momentum, it can rise to 1.1380s which is 120 exponential moving average at first.
The first-step agreement of U.S.-China Trade talks will be signed in next month, and it leads market participants to buy risky asset.
Euro rallies at the end of the year. Euro broke through 200 Moving Average and downward trend line since 2018. And it has reached upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. It may test breaking over 120 Exponential Moving Average. Euro surges over the trend line in Asian session at the end of the year.
U.S. news agency, Bloomberg reported analysts who answered the survey expected euro to rise more four percent against greenback. They guess euro will be supported by global economy recovery and political tension easing in the next year.
And traders are expected to buy euro, news medias report.
And ECB president Christine Lagarde has spoken she found the clues of the euro-zone-economy recovery in her first ECB meeting. She has had spoken QE before. As well as traders, economists think euro-zone economy will rebound in the next year.
But some participants think the trade war is not finished yet. There will be more difficult second and third round of trade talks and it is not certain the talks reach the agreement.
And there is another political variation, U.S. Presidential Election in the next year. Donald Trump, President is expected to win the election but there are still variations while the campaign.
In England, the Conservatives won the parliament election and no-deal fear diminishes. But risk of hard Brexit disturbs the rising of GBP.
British PM, Boris Johnson confirmed the Brexit in January, 2020, but someone think it doesn't mean soft Brexit.
Hard Brexit as well as no deal may lower economy growth in Europe and euro, major currency in Europe is affected by Brexit risk, too.
Meanwhile we need to watch Chinese economy carefully in next year. Though U.S.-Sino Trade War ends its first round, the loan risk of Chinese corporations rises more an more.
The profit of government-controlled corporations decreased in 2019 due to the decline of infrastructure construction in China. These corporations reportedly have high debt level and depend on infrastructure construction.
The worse health of companies calls default.
This report is for Forex not Chinese equities. German economy as well as emerging markets depends on Chinese economy, and U.S.-Sino Trade War lowered the global trade and euro zone economy. We need to be interested in China, too. And China is one of big two economy entities.
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