[GBP] Uncertain trend

GBP/USD 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

GBP/USD weekly chart, source: forexfactory.com

After the Britain's vote to leave European Union, Sterling plunged against Greenback recording the low in 31 years. I thought no more bad news, that is the worse economic events than Brexit doesn't occur. And sterling rebounded over 1.30.



But market consensus seems to be on short position. Weekly chart shows weak Pound clearly though the rebound. It is dangerous to have long bias on GBP because of the downward trend. In this chart we find the best case is the price moves in a narrow channel.



In short term charts, 1-hour chart and 4-hour chart, currency pair GBP/USD attempts the rising but its rising size will be limited. Because the weekly chart shows the explicit downward trend.



Hedge funds are betting on weak sterling. U.S. economic daily, Wall Street Journal reported that hedge fund managers thought the short bias about sterling was available yet and they bet on weak Pound after Brexit on Monday. U.S. CFTC told short positions on sterling increased fifty percent than that of two weeks before, the press repoted, too.


Some managers expect the price of the currency pair falls to 1.20. The record low in 31 years was 1.29.



My opinion of sterling's stop its fall on 1.29~1.30 band and rising somewhat may be just my wish. But I don't want change my opinion of neutral positon. If you don't have any position, you'd better just watch the market or trade another currency pairs such as EUR/USD. If you have the position, you liquidate it. I don't recommend getting position of Pound whether long or short. Holding a position of Pound may make you tired.