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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Euro in Complicated Crisis 2020 0316
One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD rises as the week begins. Euro tries to come in the bands from the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the daily chart and the weekly chart.
The trade should be cautious, because its rising doesn't mean the upward trend yet. We need to think it as a correction while falling, considering the movement in Asian session on Monday gives less reliability.
Getting the long positions is valid when euro rises against US dollar over 1.0812 which previous peak in one-hour chart and four-hour chart. If it succeeds to break through the previous peak, it can build the double-bottoms pattern in one-hour chart and gives the momentum of exceeding 20 moving-average in four-hour chart.
Euro surges against dollar on Monday last week when US benchmark rate was cut one percent point. But dollar won the match after all.
Therefore the bias of strong dollar is still effective in the short term.
When recalling the memory in global finance crisis 2008, all gauges were out of order and dollar surged. It was financial crisis and this crisis is pandemic and real economy problem.
It is recommended just watching the market rather than get a long or short position of currencies. This crisis is from the respiratory virus outbreak and real economy then. It's not the matter of finance as did in Great Depression and global finance crisis in 2008. The news of success of making vaccine and medicine is more important than that of central bank's policy news and government's fiscal policy
Dollar Index, dollar's value against the currency basket of six major currencies hit 102 last week. It rose to 102.99 once,
Greenback's value surged as the demand of dollar has been increased by companies and investors. Because the investors buy greenback to exchange their asset for dollar and to prepare the possible margin call, and the corporations around the world concern over reduced sales and repayment of existing dollar loans.
The pair takes clues from the US dollar’s broad strength following the Senate’s failure to pass the COVID-19 bill.
The US Senate fails to pass even the first barrier of its much-awaited stimulus package, estimated around $2.0 trillion, as opposition Democrats show the sign to renegotiate the key bill with the ruling Republicans.
Some major economy indices are released in the week, it is predicted investors to listen not-good records due to the pandemic coronavirus outbreak.
Manufacturing PMI is expected to be sluggish in both the Eurozone, Germany and the United States.
If the U.S. indicators appear to be sluggish, the dollar's rise could slow down.
The number of weekly unemployment claims ended on the 14th was 281 thousands, an increase of about 70,000 from 211,000 in the previous week, and it is predicted to increase to 750 thousands.
German Ifo releases German Ifo Business Climate on Wednesday. It was 87.7 last month and it is expected to be 87.9 in the month.
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