[EUR] Short Bias on EURO 2020 0406

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Bearish Euro 2020 0403

Euro returned almost its gain in dollar last week. The price of euro formed the typical downturn pattern, Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the four-hour chart of EUR/USD, last week, again. The previous pattern lowered euro to 1.0659 against greenback. We watch the chart carefully whether it falls below previous bottom.

It is reasonable to think euro keeps falling in the week. Though it may rebound, euro is restrained at 1.0852 around upper band of Bollinger Bands in one-hour chart or som 1.09, 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released on last Friday decreased 701 thousands than previous month. It increased 275 thousands in February and market expected minus 100 thousands this time.

Worse than predicted payrolls disappointed the investors and the currency pair EUR/USD fell last week.

And the unemployment claims which was released on last Thursday hit more 6.6 millions and recorded historical high. It was 3.3 millions last week. This means almost 10 millions workers has lost their jobs for two weeks.

The health care problem of COVID-19 affects finance market as well as real economy.

First, the pandemic coronavirus should be controlled. Then the market will return to the normal state. As well as watching the chart and news, we have to be interested in the news about the pandemic.

Fed has begun its QE program. It lowers the cost of borrowing dollar in funding market. The spread of three-months FX swap has diminished shortly. And it cut benchmark interest rate to near zero percent. These would raise the price of currency pair EUR/USD.


Gjallarhorn find the appropriate entry point for LONG position of euro. It may take time.
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