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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0522
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505
The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD failed its two goals. The currency pair didn't exceed 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart and failed to break through 1.10 level.
It exceeded 1.10 temporarily but it slid again below 1.09. EUR/USD touched the bottom band and slid along the band in the four-hour chart. Euro rebounded above 1.0877 which was the peak in mid May, but it is not uncertain to rally again in the next week.
We are able to confirm that euro is supported on the support line against dollar in the weekly chart. And we gain the long bias of euro.
Euro could fall again next week below the previous peaks but it would rebound again.
In the technical analysis, it is recommended to buy euro. There aren't an explicit patterns and signals, and it is better just to watch the market till the entry signal is shown keeping long bias.
Fed has cut its benchmark interest rate near to zero. But the market expects Fed may cut the Federal Funds Rate to negative rate. though Jerome Powell spoke he didn't guess the negative interest rate.
Its possibility is low, yet. Futures of Federal Funds Rate has some 20 percent of the negative rate. But Bank of England supports its negative rate, Fed cannot help considering BoE's plan.
Meanwhile the diplomatic conflict as well as economy conflict between top two economy entities support the strong dollar. The United States and China clashed with the trade, and it burdened the global financial market in the last year. While the Covid-19 pandemic, top two clash again. As China plans to make the national security law to Hong Kong, the US blames China and warns the retaliation. China does against the United States, too.
It raised greenback on Friday.
A forex expert said, the current foreign exchange market moved under the risk-off scenario and dollar rose, economy news agency Yonhap Infomax reported.
Another expert told, US-Sino conflict made safe-haven asset, dollar rose and restrained euro from reaching 1.10, Yonhap Infomax reported, too.
The long bias on euro is not supported by the economy circumstance.
Gjallarhorn got the long position of futures, euro-fx. It is liquidated in September.
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