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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating and Bearish-like EURO 2021 0323
Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position just watching the market.
The currency pair EUR/USD which has fallen since mid March tries to rebound. But the momentum of the pair seems not to be strong and the explicit signal is negative to euro.
The weekly chart of EUR/USD should be watched before the rebounding euro attracts attention. The form of the Head-and-Shoulders pattern is being completed in the weekly chart. The head and the left shoulder are made, and the rest seems to be formed. If the traders consider the pattern, they need to prepare of the retreat to 1.1600, first. The euro may fall under the 1.16 after forming the right shoulder of the pattern.
The market participants need to watch whether the euro exceed 20 moving average in the four-hour chart for the deal in the short term. If it breaks 20 MA, it can be expected to rise to 1.187x at least.
Before the analysis the chart, we need to be interested in the global economy news more. The currencies including the greenback and the euro, are moved by the US economy, the bond yields and the vaccination against the pandemic.
The optimistic outlook for the US economy, the impressive pace of coronavirus vaccinations and a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields should continue to underpin the greenback. Thursday's upbeat US Initial Jobless Claims added to the narrative of a relatively faster US economic recovery from the pandemic.
The concerns about the economic recession due to the third wave of COVID-19 infections in Europe could keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the shared currency.
And the risk-off sentiment supports the US dollar. The expectation of the US economy growth, too. The US economy is distinguished from its counterpart due to the third wave of the infections.
The unemployment claims hit the low since the pandemic, recording 684 thousands and the US GDP in last forth quarter was 4.3 percent.
Meanwhile, Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair has affirmed the monetary easing policy in the long term contributing to the mass media, and Thomas I. Barkin, the governor of Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has spoken, the inflation should be out of sight for six months and tried for the stable bond market.
It is reported, JP Morgan increased the dollar position in its Forex portfolio.
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