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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Falling EUR 2020 0210
Euro which has recorded the multi-year low since April 2017, failed to rebound keeping falling on Friday. One of the major currency pair EUR/USD keeps falling and we need to watch the currency pair more carefully whether the pair is bought or sold.
Open Bollinger Bands implies the downward trend is kept in one-hour chart and four-hour chart for a while.
Major outlook for euro is still downward. Due to euro zone recession and nCoV outbreak, Gjallarhorn thinks.
Sliding euro has attempted the recovery but failed and it built the explicit downward trend line since February 1. For euro's succeeding trend-turning, it should break through 20 Moving Average or middle band of Bollinger Bands in four-hour chart of eur/usd or euro fx.
If it succeeds, we may expect the exceeding upper band and 120 exponential moving average one by one. It is 1.09853, 120 EMA in four-hour chart of eur/usd and 1.10083 in four-hour chart of euro fx-2020 03.
A lot of economists, analysts and market participants watch euro downward trend.
Euro zone itself is under the recession. Euro zone, especially German economy is not good because the decreasing export by new Coronavirus outbreak from China. Outbreak of epidemic decreases all economy action in China.
German GDP stagnates at zero percent in 4th Quarter in 2019. German economy in trouble drags the euro further.
ING's Francis Pesol Forex strategist said, "The euro will have a hard time rebounding against the dollar next week because there is a risk of disappointing economic indicators for the Euro zone next week." Dow Jones reported on Friday.
As US-Sino Trade War lowered euro price in last year, the fear of epidemic devalues euro, too. Scare of the disease rises, risk-off lowered euro. When the expectation of nCoV ending spreads in the market, they buys greenback selling euro. Anyway, euro falls.
Zero percent of key interest rate does, too. Very low interest rate has caused to sell euro and to buy relatively high yield currencies such as US dollar and Brazilian Real.
Euro-carry trade is anticipated and it lowers euro in the long term.
As you watch the chart and read this report, you can find that Gjallarhorn usually uses four-hour chart. Some traders may think the report is available in short term, another does in long term. The others will do in the mid term.
Though Gjallarhorn expect euro down but it keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. The plunge in the euro is serious about whether to dispose of the euro. To determine Stop loss is painful.
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