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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding euro 2020 0201
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Euro 2020 0129
Surged euro in last week retreated on Monday. Currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10581 as of 04:08(GMT) and futures, 6EH20(liquidated in March) is 1.10870.
It seems that euro which rose last Friday keeps its momentum though there is some correction, Gjallarhorn expects.
Euro of FX Margin and futures is between two trend line of up and down and it is edge of two trend line. It's time to surge or plunge. The chart seems to tell rising.
It doesn't seem to fall and it is expected to try breaking through 120 exponential moving average and the downward trend line. Because it exceeded two meaningful resistance lines, 120 EMA and downward trend line in the last week.
The downward trend line which is build since September 2018 is tried to be broken through from last December. And we need to watch the market with long bias in short-and-mid term or till it reaches to 1.12.
If the currency pair reaches 1.12, it just faces upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. It has more margin of rising to 1.1316, 120 exponential moving average.
The dollar rose and euro fell on Monday by the positive U.S. economy signal. The ISM manufacturing index for January showed an uptick to 50.9, beating expectations of 48.5. A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy.
After the armistice of trade war between top two economy entities, the United States and China, new respiratory coronavirus from Wuhan, China threatens the global economy. As Gjallarhorn has told, Forex market moved by the news of respiratory coronavirus outbreak. And it is better to watch the global news about coronavirus spread. Though there were bad news to euro, the currency has been more affected by virus news.
The news of its outbreak called the risk-off, and the investors buy risky asset as the fear of the virus is soothed.
Some analysts think weak Chinese yuan leads euro down because the yuan is the largest part of the basket in determining the value of the European Central Bank's trade-weighted Euro index.
As you watch the chart and read this report, you can find that Gjallarhorn usually uses four-hour chart. Some traders may think the report is available in short term, another does in long term. The others will do in the mid term.
Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is still under the loss.
Gjallarhorn produces the report of risky currencies with Long bias now because it has Long Position of EUR.
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